April 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 271122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a combination of earlier
outflows and an incoming frontal boundary will continue sagging
south in the next several hours. A few storms have been trying their
best to pulse up at times & can`t completely rule out some small
hail and gusty winds. Look for most of the heavier activity to be
pushing off the coast by 7am or so, but lingering light rain will
taper off toward mid morning. Clouds will take a while longer to
scatter/clear out...probably not until the mid & late afternoon
hours. Have undercut NBM suggested high temps this afternoon.

Mostly clear with fair wx tonight and Friday. Onshore winds resume
during the day as high pressure moves to the east and pressures fall
across West Texas in advance of the next storm system. A strong
shortwave will dive southward down the Rockies into West Texas
during the day. With colder mid/upper level temps and a modifying
airmass look for showers and thunderstorms to develop west & north
of the area (along its nne-ssw oriented frontal boundary) as we head
into the late afternoon and evening hours...eventually making their
into Southeast Texas overnight. Depending on how things evolve,
we`ll need to be on the lookout for the potential for large hail
with any of the stronger storms.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

There is good and bad news regarding the forecast confidence this
weekend. Let`s start with the bad and end on a positive note. The
bad news is that there continues to be model discrepancy
regarding the track of both an UL and surface low that will move
across Texas on Friday and Saturday. A farther south track (like
the ECMWF) would yield lighter rain with perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm. A farther north track would bring a better chance of
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall along with a risk of
stronger thunderstorms. This has implications on both QPF and
PoPs. But there is good news! It appears the guidance has
converged on a faster moving system. The ECMWF has given up (at
least for now) its sluggish UL low scenario. This means that
whatever rain and thunderstorm activity is thrown our way by the
system should end by Saturday afternoon or evening.

Cooler temperatures are expected in the low`s wake. NBM temps
seemed reasonable and were used for Saturday`s highs. Temps are
only expected to climb into the low/mid 70s across the southern
half of the CWA. Wrap around moisture may keep a thicker overcast
for our northern counties where highs are only forecast to reach
the mid/upper 60s. Dew points are expected to drop in the system`s
wake. Saturday night lows in the 50s are expected. Low temps could
be as cool as the upper 40s across our northern counties. Below
average temperatures are expected to continue into Sunday, though
temps should be a little warmer than Saturday. However, early
signals point to a warm up next week. So enjoy those cooler than
normal temperatures while you can!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Stronger storms are in the process of moving south of the metro
area and toward the coast. They should mostly be offshore by mid
morning. Wind field is convoluted and probably won`t resolve for a
few more hours. Forecast ceilings are a significant challenge as
well. VFR conditions presently are in place inland. However
guidance indicates they`ll lower as cooler air filters in. Just
how low, and when aren`t much more than a guess in the next
several hours. Models indicate periods of IFR ceilings during the
morning. I won`t go that low based on current observations, but
have advertised 1000-3000ft for now as a starting point and amend
if/when trends become apparent. Skies scatter out/clear during the
mid-late afternoon hours. Clear skies should persist overnight. No
model indications of fog, but may be something we`ll need to
further analyze considering light winds and wet ground. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, especially this
morning. Though ambient winds are expected to be moderate, locally
higher winds and seas are possible in and near any thunderstorms.
Southeast winds return on Friday followed by another cold front
and potential for showers and storms late Friday into Saturday.
Stronger offshore winds are expected behind the front. Small Craft
Advisory level winds will be possible on Saturday into Sunday.
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected to return by Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 54 82 57 / 20 0 10 70
Houston (IAH) 78 57 83 61 / 60 0 0 70
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 77 65 / 90 0 0 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Lingering broken MVFR CIGs around 1200 to 2500ft will persist
through the early afternoon before scattering out with VFR
conditions generally prevailing through the rest of the period.
There is a chance for some patchy fog tonight thanks to clearing
skies and moist grounds, but exactly where that patchy fog pops up
is uncertain. Kept it out of the TAFs this package, but may need
to be added for our more troublesome spots (CXO, LBX, SGR) later
on. Northwesterly winds of 5 to 8kts will persist through this
evening, becoming light and variable overnight, then southeasterly
flow is expected after sunrise Friday around 6 to 10kts with
higher gusts in the afternoon.

Fowler
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don
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Now this is the way Spring is supposed to be in Texas with a chance of storms every few days.Instead of the dry Springs we've been having the last several years.Its nice to be getting a normal Spring for once.It's MCS season.😉
spcjkd2cat.us_sc.png
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms are forecast to produce damaging hail from late
afternoon through evening from north-central Texas to the middle and
lower Rio Grande Valley. Isolated strong to severe storms may also
occur over parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will progress southward into the
Southern Plains from the central Rockies as a mid-level impulse
traverses the Southeast and Carolina Piedmont region
tomorrow/Friday. The low-level mass response in both of these
regions will be surface low development, with enhanced low-level
convergence and moisture advection supporting an increase in
convective coverage. The increase in boundary layer flow/shear in
both regions will also support storm organization, with strong to
severe storm development likely, especially in north-central to
south-central TX.

...Southern Plains...
On Friday afternoon, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect
northward across TX, from the Gulf Coast to the Red River. Up to 9
C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread the low-level moisture
plume by afternoon peak heating, contributing to 2000-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Around this time, a surface cold front is expected to merge
with a dryline progressing eastward from the TX Hill Country,
resulting in convective initiation and rapid intensification.
Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modest low-level
curvature ahead of the cold front/dryline intersection, suggesting
that supercells will be the initial mode before storm mergers result
in linear segments or even a possible MCS. The elongated hodographs
and breadth of buoyancy above the freezing level suggest that large
hail will be the primary threat with supercells, with a couple of
instances of 3+ inch stones possible. A couple of tornadoes also
cannot be ruled out with some of the more dominant, longer-lasting
supercells. However, the predominant severe threat should be severe
gusts once storm/cold pool mergers take place.
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DoctorMu
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2.18 inches last night. It's nice to strike gold. The El Niño flip is really allowing those troughs and MCS's to dive down deeper. We had been missing them, and it's late enough in severe season (for SETX) where tornado risk is a bit less.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 272035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

A weak, shallow high pressure will be sliding in over the region
tonight ushering in clear skies and light winds. These conditions
are perfect for two things: cool temperatures and patchy fog.
Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid to upper 50s with patchy
fog possible in low lying areas. Not expecting widespread, or very
dense fog, and it should quickly dissipate tomorrow morning if it
ends up developing. The high pressure quickly slides to the east on
Friday ushering in southeasterly to southerly flow increasing
temperatures and moisture into the region. High temperatures on
Friday will climb into the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies to
start the day with, but will have increasing clouds by the
afternoon.

There is an upper level low digging into North Texas Friday night
with multiple shortwaves propagating out ahead of the system into SE
Texas. These shortwaves will bring thunderstorms, some strong to
severe, as early as Friday evening to northern parts of the Brazos
Valley with the storms moving eastward through the rest of the area
overnight Friday. The daytime heating earlier in the day will leave
behind some energy for these thunderstorms, and cold temperatures
aloft will aid in hail development. If severe thunderstorms develop,
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but also
cannot out rule an isolated tornado. The hail threat looks to be
greatest over the northwestern portion of the region (west of I-45,
but north of I-10), and then strong wind gust threat closer to the
coast. SPC has placed areas along and west of I-45 in a Slight Risk
(threat level 2 out of 5) and the rest of the area in a Marginal
Risk (threat level 1 out of 5). Lingering showers and thunderstorms
will be possible into Saturday morning. Temperatures Friday night
will in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Rain chances will be on the decrease by Sat afternoon and evening with
the passage of the mid/upper level trough axis and its associated cold
front. While the bulk of the strongest activity is likely going to oc-
cur Fri night into the very early morning hours of Sat, there could be
lingering wrap-around development through the afternoon as this system
makes its way across SE TX. This mix of clouds/rain chances/increasing
offshore flow will help to keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Sat. Look for clearing/much cooler temperatures by Sat night, with the
N/NW winds becoming breezy and gusty overnight. Lows should be falling
into the upper 40s across our northern tier of counties...the lower to
mid 50s for the central/southern areas...and near/around 60 at the im-
mediate coast.

Weakening CAA and sunny skies should translate to slightly warmer day-
time highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sun. The building ridge a-
loft and return of onshore winds will continue this warming trend into
the upcoming week with highs climbing into the mid 80s for most locat-
ions by mid week. Looking further ahead, low rain chances (~20%) could
return by Thur as the ridge aloft begins to breakdown and the southern
stream jet begins drawing weak disturbances in from the west. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Lingering broken MVFR CIGs around 1200 to 2500ft will persist
through the early afternoon before scattering out with VFR
conditions generally prevailing through the rest of the period.
There is a chance for some patchy fog tonight thanks to clearing
skies and moist grounds, but exactly where that patchy fog pops up
is uncertain. Kept it out of the TAFs this package, but may need
to be added for our more troublesome spots (CXO, LBX, SGR) later
on. Northwesterly winds of 5 to 8kts will persist through this
evening, becoming light and variable overnight, then southeasterly
flow is expected after sunrise Friday around 6 to 10kts with
higher gusts in the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Light N/NW winds will prevail this evening with the passage of the weak
cold front, but are expected to become more light/variable overnight as
surface high pressure briefly settles over the region. As this high be-
gins to shift east/weaken, light to moderate SE winds will be returning
to the marine waters Fri/Fri night. Widespread thunderstorms are set to
move back into SE TX Fri night and then into the coastal waters by late
Fri night/early Sat morning...with a strong cold front following in its
wake. Caution flags may be needed Fri night with these storms, but with
very strong gusty N/NW winds (and colder air) in the wake of the front,
Small Craft Advisories are likely for Sat with sustained wind speeds at
20-25kts, gusts near gale (34kts) or higher and seas climbing to 6-8ft.
Conditions should be improving by Sat night as the system moves further
east and the gradient relaxes. Light to moderate onshore winds are exp-
ected to return by Mon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 82 56 67 / 0 10 60 20
Houston (IAH) 57 84 60 69 / 0 0 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 67 77 64 73 / 0 0 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...41
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DoctorMu
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A Chamber of Commerce afternoon. Sunny with a cool, dry northerly breeze. Just another day in paradise. What I would give for 120 more of these before football season!
Cpv17
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Man the Texans knocked it outta the park in the draft! DeMeco Ryans paying off already!

Sorry but I’m excited :lol:
TexasBreeze
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Yes it was definitely exciting tonight and there is hope for optimism for the future for sure!
Cromagnum
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We are on the edge for this evening but Hill Country outta get hailed on for sure.

Image

Wind and Hail
Image
Image
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:28 am We are on the edge for this evening but Hill Country outta get hailed on for sure.

Image

Wind and Hail
Image
Image
I wish I could see that zoomed in where it shows the counties.
javakah
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:34 am I wish I could see that zoomed in where it shows the counties.
Image

You can for the categorical at least.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/
Stratton20
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Im in the enhanced risk zone, could be an interesting evening/ overnight
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don
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The HRRR is showing the potential for hail in the Brazos valley today.
Screenshot 2023-04-28 at 12-25-51 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-04-28 at 12-26-14 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
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don
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The latest HRRR is slower with the weakening of the MCS,bringing hail cores deeper into SE Texas.
Screenshot 2023-04-28 at 14-23-47 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-04-28 at 14-23-56 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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About what time are these storms expected to fire up/ pass through College Station?
Cromagnum
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Already flaring up pretty good in Central Texas.

Image
Cpv17
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Models are looking really rough for Wharton County 8-10pm tonight. Yikes!
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don
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The mesocyclone of the supercell near Temple was trying to form an eye like feature.Yikes...
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don
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A watch has just been issued for the northwest counties of SE Texas.
Crrapture.PNG
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