don wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 12:04 pm
It looks like after this wave another band may form with some daytime heating sometime this afternoon/evening as the low lifts north of us.That band could be more organized than the bands this morning.We'll see...
Screenshot 2023-05-14 at 11-36-36 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-05-14 at 11-41-10 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 5:37 pm
walsean1 i think they are anticipating more redevelopment tommorow into tuesday as well, grounds are saturated
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
Sunday featured plentiful and widespread rainfall with some
locations seeing street flooding and rises on local bayous and
creeks. This is especially apparent across Harris, Montgomery,
Grimes, and Chambers Counties. That`s important to note, because
with all of the previous rainfall, our soils are fairly saturated.
CREST soil moisture reveals saturation of up 45%-65% in portions of
these counties. With a 588-590 dam mid level high pushing westward
into the Mississippi/Alabama region, shortwaves wrapping around this
high will provide the lift needed to generate another round of
showers/storms this morning/afternoon. Moisture availability will be
greatest along and west of the I-45 corridor, so this is where PoPs
are the highest. We`ll need to monitor the Matagorda Bay area as
high resolution model guidance continues to point towards this area
receiving another 2-3" of rain today. Showers and storms are
expected to develop in the late morning hours and expand in coverage
throughout the afternoon hours while moving in a general south to
north direction. With additional rainfall occuring over already
saturated soils, additional rises on creeks and bayous will be
possible. As a result, areas west of I-45 are under a slight risk
(level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall, and a marginal risk (level
1 out of 4) to the east of I-45.
As far as temperatures go, it`ll be highly dependent on the timing
of showers/storms over a particular location. Mid level ridging will
be building in, so we should get some decent breaks in the cloud
cover especially east of I-45. Low to mid 80s will be common, but
upper 80s will be possible for our eastern locations if they can
manage to dodge the rainfall long enough. Rainfall tapers off going
into the evening hours, and we reset to do it all over again on
Tuesday. However, there is a "cold" front to talk about. A weak cold
front will push its way in on early Tuesday morning and will become
increasingly washed out as it moves in, but it will do two things
for us. One, there`ll be a northerly wind shift (at least north of I-
10). Two, moisture convergence along the boundary increases PW
values back to near the 90th percentile (~1.76"). The front won`t
really do much for lift, but we will have favorable mid level
dynamics as a shortwave trough begins to develop with its axis
oriented along the TX Gulf Coast on Tuesday. So, expect another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday from the
late morning to the early evening hours. Again, we have the scenario
of additional rainfall falling over saturated soils. Unsurprisingly,
there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of Southeast
TX on Tuesday.
It`s worth noting that some models indicate this shortwave trough
evolving into a cutoff low over South TX, but there are some notable
differences on timing. Some models bring this low in on Tuesday
afternoon and some bring it in on Tuesday night. As a result, I`ve
kept PoPs going into Tuesday night especially south of I-10 where
there will be more favorable forcing. A brief note on Tuesday`s
temperatures: a rather robust upper level digs down into
northeastern CONUS on Tuesday and squashes out the ridging aloft
that had been in place earlier in the week. Our Tuesday shortwave
trough is at the tail-end of this larger upper level trough...see?
All the storylines got connected together at the end! Multiple river
sites, bayous, creeks, and streams remain with elevated flows and
the additional rainfall will definitely not help with that. So, be
sure to stay up to date on the forecast and road conditions around
waterways.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
The weak cool front mentioned in the Short Term section should
finally make its way off the coast by early Wednesday morning.
Showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal
counties and waters given the combination of low level moisture,
sfc weak convergence and the passage of subtle shortwaves aloft.
Drier and warmer weather conditions return to the region after
midweek as mid-upper ridging builds to our west. Even warmer
conditions can be expected on Friday as the ridge axis moves
overhead. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s both days. Some
locations could see highs in the low 90s by Friday.
A deepening upper level trough near the Great Lakes will drag a
"stronger" cold front southward into the Southern Plains early
Saturday. Latest GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the
frontal timing and strength. The Canadian, on the other hand,
keeps the frontal boundary north of the area, and brings different
shortwaves over the region through the upcoming week. For this
forecast package, have leaned towards GFS/EC/NBM with the FROPA
moving through on Saturday. Therefore, kept some 15-30 percent
PoPs through early Sunday. Drier weather returns towards the end
of the long term period as a sfc high pressure builds over the
central CONUS.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
IFR to MVFR ceilings along with decreased visibilities are
currently present north of I-10 with VFR conditions further south.
Ceilings will gradually improve by the late morning hours back to
VFR, but convection is expected to begin around 17Z-18Z with
greater coverage to the west of I-45. Included TEMPO groups for
the best window for TSRA at area sites in the afternoon hours.
Winds will be on the light side throughout the day, and become
calm after sunset. Convection will move from south to north
throughout the day and taper off going into the evening hours.
Expect ceilings to gradually decrease overnight, especially at
northern sites where a drop to IFR is entirely possible along with
patchy fog. Along and near the coast, ceilings should remain VFR.
The winds are relaxing ahead of an approaching weak cold front, so
winds on Tuesday will have more of a westerly component.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today
as a few disturbances move through the Middle/Upper TX coast.
Locally gusty winds, elevated seas and frequent lightning can be
expected near/with the strongest storms. Isolated showers and storms
can again be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cool front
slowly moves and possibly stalls over the northwestern Gulf. Dry
weather can then be expected into Saturday. Light onshore winds will
prevail through the week; however, light and variable winds can be
expected Tuesday - Thursday time frame.
JM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023
Due to the recent rainfall, there are multiple river sites that are
either in flood stage or forecast to go into flood stage mainly
along the Lavaca/Navidad and San Jacinto. Most of these sites are
near or approaching their crests, but we will need to monitor for
the additional rainfall expected over at least the next few days.
Today`s main concern will be along the Lavaca/Navidad in our
southwestern counties as this is where high resolution model
guidance continues to trend towards an additional 2-3" of potential
rainfall. In addition to the river flood warnings that are out, we
have also issued two areal flood warnings based on reports from
Montgomery County OEM of numerous roadways that are not passable and
HCFCD gauge reports. Again, we will have to monitor today`s rainfall
trends as they could cause additional rises along area rivers,
creeks, and bayous due to the soils being fairly saturated leading
to quicker runoff.
Looks like the unofficial start of hurricane season has arrived, maybe some early season development next week as a front moves off the southeast coast, its almost that time of the year, the official start should be moved to may not June 1st IMO
NW Harris Co getting dumped on and these cells don't appear to be in any kind of hurry to go anywhere. Looks like another feast or famine type of day for most of us. Hopefully that outflow can drag some of the precip back south and get a few more folks in on the action today.
Weird how everything popped up north of 10 today. Almost nothing south of there. Again, that wasn’t supposed to happen lol. See what happens tomorrow. Looks like tomorrow will be the last decent chance of rain for at least a few days, possibly longer.