May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Looking at the long-term forecast trends. Less Death Ridge, and more El Niño-driven Northwest flow for early June. Fingers crossed - more clouds, all the time for an ideal Brazos Valley summer! :lol:
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun May 21, 2023 2:12 pm Looking at the long-term forecast trends. Less Death Ridge, and more El Niño-driven Northwest flow for early June. Fingers crossed - more clouds, all the time for an ideal Brazos Valley summer! :lol:
I’m in.
Stratton20
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GFS is trending much wetter in the medium- extended long range with a slow moving storm system
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

After yesterday`s cooler than normal temperatures, we will begin to
turn up the thermostat as winds shift from the east to southeast
through the short term. High temperatures today will be in the mid
80s and then approaching 90 on Tuesday with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s (and low 70s along the immediate coast). The parade
of weak shortwaves aloft continues with the first arriving this
morning bringing some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal waters through the mid-morning. The next will move through
overnight tonight, but will be weak enough that any thunderstorms
that develop will dissipate before reaching southeast Texas - and
then repeat this again Tuesday night. Could see isolated light
showers pop up during the early morning hours, but would only expect
them to produce around a trace of accumulation. Otherwise the
biggest impact from these shortwaves will be continued partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

In general, the long term forecast remains in line with the past
several forecast packages as a relatively benign pattern looks to
bring an extended period of warm and humid but otherwise mostly
uneventful weather to SE TX. Global models continue to indicate
the emergence of a blocking pattern by mid-week with the central
third of the CONUS remaining under the influence of mid/upper
ridging. The approach of a shortwave embedded within the midlevel
flow on Wednesday and into early Thursday looks to bring us our
lone chance at widespread thunderstorm development for the
remainder of the week and into next weekend. While moisture
availability remains abundant and instability should be more than
sufficient for convective development, uncertainty regarding the
exact progression and potency of the aforementioned shortwave have
continued to warrant precipitation chances to around 30% for the
time being. Cannot fully rule out the potential for some isolated
diurnally driven activity later in the week, but confidence in
timing/extent is low at the moment and thus have not included in
this forecast package.

As surface high pressure remains just to our east heading into
the weekend, weak offshore winds will allow for drier air to enter
the area, pushing dew points into the upper 50s in the far
northern zones and the lower 60s elsewhere. Rainfall chances will
diminish heading into the weekend with little in the way of
forcing expected and midlevel ridging still remaining the dominant
synoptic feature. Warm and humid conditions should generally
prevail throughout the duration of the extended period, with
daytime highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight
lows in the upper 60s to 70s. However, with the aforementioned
intrusion of drier air, heat index values should generally remain
confined to the lower 90s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with
occasional MVFR conditions at LBX through the midmorning as CIGs
drop to around 3000ft. There may be some isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze this afternoon
impacting HOU, SGR, and GLS, but the probability is too low to
include in the TAFs. Otherwise, light northeast to easterly flow
will prevail through today.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Light winds and low seas will consider throughout the upcoming
week and into the weekend. Chances for thunderstorms will arrive
today and again on late Wednesday/early Thursday, but neither
heavy rain nor strong wind gusts are expected. As a prevailing
onshore wind develops during the weekend, marginal increases to
seas are expected, though wave heights will still remain well
below caution thresholds.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 65 88 69 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 68 90 69 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 74 86 76 / 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cady
Stratton20
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Some great news! I dont see signs of any sort of heat ridge/ death ridge pattern setting up over the state in the long term, i do see an increasing signal for wetter weather to return in the next 10~ days or so, this summer looks to be one of the best we have had in regards to rain chances, definitely looking good😀😄
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 221954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

The primary feature we will be monitoring this afternoon is the
sea breeze boundary. Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity will be
possible this afternoon near this boundary. The best chance of a
shower or storm will be south of I-10. Already noticing a building
field of cumulus clouds over our coastal counties during the
early afternoon hours today. So perhaps sea breeze induced surface
convergence coupled with modest PVA thanks to a parade of weak
shortwaves will be enough to transform some of that cumulus into
nimbocumulus. Otherwise, the rest of the afternoon will remain
warm and dry for most of the CWA with temps mostly in the mid 80s.
Expect another mild night with lows generally in the mid/upper
60s. Temps near the immediate coast and in the heart of the urban
heat island may struggle to dip below 70 while our northern-most
communities are expected to drop into the low 60s.

The zonal pattern aloft today will evolve into a more amplified
pattern tomorrow resulting in a modest increase in mid/upper
ridging. Tuesday will still feature the aforementioned weak
shortwave parade. But the atmosphere may be a little more
suppressive tomorrow meaning a lower risk of sea breeze enhanced
showers/storms. In addition, temps are looking a little hotter
with highs generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Areas near the
immediate coast are expected to be a little cooler in the low/mid
80s.

Self


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Wednesday will feature ridging draped across the Plains with more
shortwave impulses passing over SE Texas. PWs near 1.4-1.7" at
times should provide ample moisture for a scattered to isolated
showers and storms, especially during the afternoon with support
from the sea breeze. A shortwave trough should swing through the
SE CONUS on Wednesday with easterly flow developing across the
region as surface high pressure sags south. However, the overall
flow pattern should largely be driven by the sea/land breeze
circulation. Moisture also decreases area-wide with PWs falling
to 1.2-1.5." Rain chances diminish in the days following, though
temperatures will remain fairly consistent throughout the end of
the work week. Highs should be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows
in the 60s to mid 70s.


A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley should dive
southward on Friday, retrograding SW into the Tennessee
Valley/SE CONUS as it transitions into a cutoff low. This feature
will aim to push a diffuse, backdoor frontal boundary into SE
Texas by Saturday morning. Forcing from this boundary and PVA
rounding the bottom of the aforementioned midlevel low could tap
into the remaining moisture to bring isolated storms during the
day. Onshore flow is progged to return during this time frame with
temperatures rising through Sunday as this Rex Block pattern
persists.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow. We will need
to monitor the sea breeze boundary this afternoon. It may set off
isolated SHRA/TSRA activity south of I-10. VCSH has been added to
the TAFs from I-10 to the coast for this reason. Confidence in the
location of any TS is too low for mention in the TAF. That being
said, LBX appears to have the best chance of a TS this afternoon.
Winds will be fairly light and variable. However, any TS could
produce locally gusty winds. Outflow from any TS could reach as
far north as IAH. Therefore, could not rule out a brief period of
gusty S to SE winds late this afternoon at IAH. Though VFR is
expected tonight, localized low cigs and patchy fog cannot be
ruled out in locations that experience an iso SHRA/TSRA today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Light and variable winds and low seas will prevail through the week
as high pressure remains centered just to the east of the area.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and
again on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 88 68 86 / 0 10 0 30
Houston (IAH) 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 74 85 75 86 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:30 pm Some great news! I dont see signs of any sort of heat ridge/ death ridge pattern setting up over the state in the long term, i do see an increasing signal for wetter weather to return in the next 10~ days or so, this summer looks to be one of the best we have had in regards to rain chances, definitely looking good😀😄
Yep i noticed today's run of the EURO trended wetter like the GFS around the end of the month/June.Northwest flow aloft.⛈🌧
Iceresistance
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That -SOI is crazy, today’s value is at -40! We are on a -SOI streak since May 9th!
Cpv17
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Yeah the SOI is crashing big time. Should spell a lot of rain to be on the way.
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Ptarmigan
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The low SOI could suggest it maybe a strong El Nino is coming.
Stratton20
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why does the SOI crashing mean more rain for us?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 10:03 pm why does the SOI crashing mean more rain for us?
Enhances the subtropical jet/aids in the formation of El Niño.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Rapidly weakening showers and thunderstorms working their way out of
north central Texas might edge their way into parts of our northern
counties this morning. Have low rain chances in that area in case
something survives. Did raise Pops for the rest of the area today as
any boundaries from this activity combined with daytime heating
might result in some development, but kept the values just below the
mention of rain as current thinking is that activity will be quite
isolated. We will monitor as the morning/day progresses and adjust
rain chances upward as needed. Similar situation can be expected
late tonight through the day on Wednesday as additional development
in a northwest flow aloft tries to work its way into our area. In
this case, confidence is better that we will see some rain, so have
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Anything that does develop should dissipate Wednesday evening.

For temperatures, much of the area should see highs today reach the
upper 80s to around 90 (closer to the mid 80s at the beaches), and
lows tonight should bottom out in the mid to upper 60s with some
spots in the Houston area having trouble falling below 70 (closer to
the mid 70s at the beaches). Have similar temperature forecasts for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, but Wednesday`s highs might end up a
couple degrees cooler where rains develop.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Global models have indicated little change to the extended pattern
with a blocking pattern dominating the CONUS throughout the end of
the week and into the upcoming weekend, bringing SE TX a period of
generally benign and consistent weather. Rainfall from the passage
of Wednesday`s midlevel shortwave is generally expected to have
tapered off by early Thursday. However, depending on the exact
timing of the feature along with the potential for any lingering
boundaries associated with dispersed convection from Wednesday, a
stray storm or two cannot fully be ruled out early on Thursday.
Otherwise, with midlevel ridging continuing to dominate the area
through the weekend, the prevailing trend of warm and humid
conditions with limited rainfall chances is expected to continue.

A slight breakdown of the midlevel ridge is expected by late
Saturday/early Sunday, with both the GFS and the EC now indicating
the approach of a very weak surface boundary during this time.
While moisture will remain abundant (total PWs of ~1.5-7) during
this time, forcing will otherwise be relatively weak and thus only
scattered to isolated convection is anticipated with minimal
rainfall totals. Midlevel flow will become increasingly zonal by
Monday/Tuesday, with synoptic models now indicating the approach
of a more potent midlevel shortwave. This should be sufficient
enough to trigger some scattered thunderstorm activity, and as a
result have included 20-30% PoP in this forecast package.

Overall, temperature forecast has remained generally on track and
consistent from previous issuances with daytime highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s. Given
relatively weak WAA and thus slightly lower surface dew points,
maximum heat index values do not look to exceed 95.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Fog at some TAF sites early this morning will lift and burn off after
sunrise. VFR conditions along with light and variable winds can be expected
today. Weak boundaries generated by overnight north-central Texas SHRA/TSRA
might be able to generate some rains today, but for now will not mention
in the TAFs. Quiet this evening, then we will be monitoring the next
SHRA/TSRA complex that will be heading toward SE TX late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. For now, just have VCSH for CLL. An increase
in SHRA/TSRA chances is in store for much of the area on Wednesday.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Light winds and low seas will continue to prevail throughout the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with neither seas nor
wind speeds expected to approach caution thresholds over the next
seven days. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Wednesday
as a disturbance moves through the area, but strong storms are not
expected to occur.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 89 68 89 69 / 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 75 86 75 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 10:23 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 10:03 pm why does the SOI crashing mean more rain for us?
Enhances the subtropical jet/aids in the formation of El Niño.
Combined with amplified NW flow forming a trough and bringing northerly systems toward us.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 10:29 pm Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
NW flow. Bring me some cold core ULLs all summer long! 8-)
Stratton20
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I love the 500 mb height pattern starting to show up on all of the models, big ridge building in canada allowing a parade of storm systems ro move across our neck of the woods from the desert SW, now thats a good setup for rain!
Iceresistance
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Today's SOI is at-60, I never seen it this low and it's a legit value
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 11:43 am
Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 10:29 pm Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
NW flow. Bring me some cold core ULLs all summer long! 8-)
From your lips to God's ears. :D
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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This was unexpected. Was soaking the lawn, listening to a conference call and BOOM.

Sprinklers off now!
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