May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 3:31 pm What do ya know? Raining near Beaumont again... Wish the rest of us could cash in more frequently.
It's part of Louisiana... ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGs2iLoDUYE
Stratton20
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DoctorMu dont think it will be around too long, maybe a week at most, with el nino i expect these heat ridges will be more transitory and not permanently stuck , definitely do not expect a repeat of last summer where the ridge just set on top of us all summer
I do see a stretch of low to mid 90’s, but the 100’s should stay in west /central texas , thanks goodness for el nino
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 4:07 pm DoctorMu dont think it will be around too long, maybe a week at most, with el nino i expect these heat ridges will be more transitory and not permanently stuck , definitely do not expect a repeat of last summer where the ridge just set on top of us all summer
I do see a stretch of low to mid 90’s, but the 100’s should stay in west /central texas , thanks goodness for el nino
El Nino sometimes doesn't have a big impact on summer weather in SETX, except a lower risk of a major hurricane. We still have a window until June 10th or so.

If the Death Ridge establishes itself during June, instead of July that's usually not a good sign. We'll see.

We have upper level vortices on the SJT that flirt with Texas for the next 10-12 days, then the SJT lifts about June 13 on GFS. By June 15 virtually all models and ensembles agree on zonal flow, GFS lift from our area, and a TX DR.

You can see the stronger upperlevel winds literally to around the Death Ridge.
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Cromagnum
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Yep. Looks like the trust old I10 wall is doing it's job. Hosed again.
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DoctorMu
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The easterlies are already starting in Florida. They'll see rain every other day or more until the end of September.

As Jerry Reed once sang: She got the Goldmine, and I got the Shaft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyqe8n-pbqQ
Stratton20
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DoctorMu well lets hope the DR breaks down and or is weaker this summer
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 5:20 pm The easterlies are already starting in Florida. They'll see rain every other day or more until the end of September.

As Jerry Reed once sang: She got the Goldmine, and I got the Shaft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyqe8n-pbqQ
El Niño or La Niña doesn’t seem to have any impacts on FL weather. Dry there during the winters and wet during the summers. And most temps there don’t ever get above 95°F.
Stratton20
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Outlook just issued for JUNE and its a good one! Whens the last time we have seen a June outlook this nice? CPC isnt buying into a death ridge sitting over the state
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Ptarmigan
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Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico.

Image

Image

There is a remote chance of it developing.

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jasons2k
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Kinda irritated that tonight, on Fox 26, Rameisha Shade talked about summer starting in 3 weeks, versus educating the public on what the meteorological summer is.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 6:05 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 5:20 pm The easterlies are already starting in Florida. They'll see rain every other day or more until the end of September.

As Jerry Reed once sang: She got the Goldmine, and I got the Shaft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyqe8n-pbqQ
El Niño or La Niña doesn’t seem to have any impacts on FL weather. Dry there during the winters and wet during the summers. And most temps there don’t ever get above 95°F.
Tell me about it. My wife and I lived in Florida before moving to Texas. A typical summer day would be like yesterday, except a rain storm from the easterlies would drift through about 3 pm, leaving a cool late afternoon evening for a run. Sprinklers systems were needed more in the winter than summer due to the mild, sunny, and dray weather. Often the opposite here.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 7:07 pm Outlook just issued for JUNE and its a good one! Whens the last time we have seen a June outlook this nice? CPC isnt buying into a death ridge sitting over the state
30 day forecasts are useless. Get out a ouija board instead.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 10:47 pm Kinda irritated that tonight, on Fox 26, Rameisha Shade talked about summer starting in 3 weeks, versus educating the public on what the meteorological summer is.
Of course.

Like clockwork June means 90s virtually every day...except for the 100°F days!
brazoriatx
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Happy hurricane season
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