May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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At times it has been called the transition month. We transition from sometimes warm temperatures to hotter ones. What shall it be this year?
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 10:15 am At times it has been called the transition month. We transition from sometimes warm temperatures to hotter ones. What shall it be this year?
I’m hoping for 60’s for lows and 80’s for highs with 1-2” of rain every week.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 10:40 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 10:15 am At times it has been called the transition month. We transition from sometimes warm temperatures to hotter ones. What shall it be this year?
I’m hoping for 60’s for lows and 80’s for highs with 1-2” of rain every week.
Same here.
Stratton20
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If the Extended Euro is correct, MAY could be a very wet month for the state as a whole
Iceresistance
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For me? Well, it always happens in Oklahoma during the month of May, with TORNADOES!
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DoctorMu
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Iceresistance wrote: Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:23 am For me? Well, it always happens in Oklahoma during the month of May, with TORNADOES!
If I lived in OK, we would take April 15 - May 20 off, travel and hope my house is still there when I return! :lol:
Cpv17
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The CPC forecast looks wet to start off May.
Stratton20
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18z GFS is very wet, has a very slow moving upper low moving across the state , bringing rounds of heavy rain
total QPF next 11 days
Anytime a model shows a slow moving upper low, it does raise an eyebrow or too
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Iceresistance
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2023 1:42 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Tue Apr 18, 2023 7:23 am For me? Well, it always happens in Oklahoma during the month of May, with TORNADOES!
If I lived in OK, we would take April 15 - May 20 off, travel and hope my house is still there when I return! :lol:
That is what I did in 2022 to Florida!
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2023 6:08 pm 18z GFS is very wet, has a very slow moving upper low moving across the state , bringing rounds of heavy rain
total QPF next 11 days
Anytime a model shows a slow moving upper low, it does raise an eyebrow or too
Yeah, I think the 18z GFS has lost its mind.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:58 pm If the Extended Euro is correct, MAY could be a very wet month for the state as a whole
May is the wettest period per climo, so not exactly going out on limb.

The key has been the ENSO shift and SJT. Working in our favor. Could get some troughs. Also an expanded sea breeze.

That does mean nasty 70°F+ DPs within a week, though.
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Doctormu ill take the trade off haha, cant have everything go you’re way in weather lol, but that 12z GFS is lovely, not just for SE texas but whole state
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:12 pm Doctormu ill take the trade off haha, cant have everything go you’re way in weather lol, but that 12z GFS is lovely, not just for SE texas but whole state
The 6z looked way better lol
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Cpv17 fair point haha, still looks good though, lord knows the folks out in west texas need the rain pretty badly, el nino to the rescue haha
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AMM is going positive!
Cpv17
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The 0z EPS has a very wet signal across southeast TX.
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DoctorMu
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Warm, but dry today. Enjoy the lower DPs while they last. The Big Suck begins this weekend with hot and humid conditions. Maybe a 20-30% chance of rain late in the week in CLL as we could see some showers along disturbances from Mexico.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

Today, an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Great Basin will find
itself caught between two troughs (centered over the West coast and
Northeast CONUS respectively). This will establish an omega block
pattern across the continental US, bringing warm and quiet weather
through the first half of the work week. Southwesterly flow aloft,
clear skies and 850mb temperatures around 14-17C should work to
improve afternoon heating, bringing highs in the 80s across the
region. Gradual moisture return and shortwave energy passing
overhead will allow for cloudy skies to fill in from west to east
this evening. Paired with rising dewpoints, this will keep lows in
the 50s/60s overnight.

Cloudy skies continue into Tuesday as PWs creep towards 1 inch while
additional shortwave energy rounds the bottom of the aforementioned
ridge. Rain chances remain slim to none during the day due to strong
capping present across the region. 850mb temperatures drop by a
degree or so with winds at this level shifting towards the SE.
Paired this with cloudy skies and ever-increasing moisture, highs
are progged to only reach the mid to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows for
Tuesday night will be in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the
coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

A gradual warming/modifying trend is anticipated with a prevalent
flow off the Gulf. Dewpoints currently in the 50s will trend
upward into the 70s by the end of the work week. Gone will be the
cool overnight temps...and with warmer starts to the day look for
daytime highs to eventually flirt with the 90 degree mark later
this week. As far as rain chances go, we`ll see a stream of weak,
hard-to-time disturbances embedded in the sw flow aloft moving
across Mexico and into the area through the weekend. These will probably
enhance shra/tstm chances at times for parts of the area...maybe
as soon as Thurs night & early Fri if some of the guidance is
correct. Otherwise, will generally broad brush some scattered diurnally
driven precip each day as a starting point and amend as fcst confidence
improves if/when some of these impulses are better identified and
timed. 47

&&
Stratton20
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Thankfully that omega block pattern wont be around long, definitely dont want that heat ridge just sitting over us, luckily the pattern ahead favors pretty wet conditions
With a ridge centered over the GOM and SE, that will help to slow down any systems that approach the state, while we need the rain, some of the guidance is hinting at a heavy rain event down the road, especially on the euro and CMC, pattern is their for heavy rain, just gotta wait and see how all the pieces of the puzzle come together
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 12:07 pm Thankfully that omega block pattern wont be around long, definitely dont want that heat ridge just sitting over us, luckily the pattern ahead favors pretty wet conditions
With a ridge centered over the GOM and SE, that will help to slow down any systems that approach the state, while we need the rain, some of the guidance is hinting at a heavy rain event down the road, especially on the euro and CMC, pattern is their for heavy rain, just gotta wait and see how all the pieces of the puzzle come together
Reed Timmer mentioned that the NPO will force the Omega Block into a favorable pattern for us.
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