May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Model runs today have been pretty boring with the exception of a few mesocale models that still hint at the development of a surface low in 3-4 days
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DoctorMu
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Mesos have most of the rain on Tuesday west of here. Maybe more potential rain closer to Houston. Tuesday's NWS prog has decreased from a 60% to a 40% chance of rain.
Stratton20
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I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
It might be that time where the only rain we get is from the tropics. This week looks decent but after that, oof, not looking good.
redneckweather
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Yep, right on time like every summer around here. Hopefully get some rain this coming week.
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DoctorMu
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redneckweather wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 1:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Yep, right on time like every summer around here. Hopefully get some rain this coming week.
Yep. I hate to see yesterday's GFS turn out to be right, but climo is hard to beat, even with a super El Nino cranking up.

GFS shows a deep ridge around the 10th and then a broader SE ridge around the 13th. The GEPS Ensemble created an elongated SETX - GoM ridge.





We have from now until June 9th to get some rain.
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DoctorMu
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The best chance of rain is today or tomorrow this week. I'm already tired of running the sprinklers and A/C.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Mid to upper level shortwave moving across Texas will enhance
rain development across Southeast TX today through Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop mainly along the
coastal locations during the morning hours and as low to mid level
moisture rises and heating ramps up during the day, showers and
thunderstorms will increase and expand further north. There might
be a little more activity along areas influenced by the sea and
bay breeze and storm outflow boundaries later this afternoon into
evening. Localized heavy rainfall is still possible with some of
this activity, most likely during the afternoon to evening hours,
although the rainfall totals are not impressive at the moment.
In
fact, the surface low that models have been hinting at the past
few days is not well defined now and the surge of moisture
associated with this feature isn`t as strong as before either.
Thus, activity may be a little less than what was anticipated
yesterday.
Regardless, the heavy rainfall can still pose a threat,
and for those who will be spending time outdoors or driving
to/from your destinations, you may need to watch out for strong
gusty winds, lightning, and reduced visibilities in and around
these showers and thunderstorms. WPC continues a Slight Risk (2
out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall from this morning through Tuesday
morning for our Southwestern counties, which is where the higher
PWs are and where vort max`s are expected to pass through. There
is a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the rest of Southeast TX.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the night hours tonight, but should be mainly focused over
areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Activity will
increase again on Tuesday, although not as widespread as today`s.
The strongest activity is expected to occur during the afternoon
hours as we heat up and another vort max pushes through. Chance
for rain will decrease Tuesday night with drier air moving in and
ridging starting to build.

The highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s today and
Tuesday. The lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

24


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

A drying pattern is in store for the area starting on Wednesday
and continuing through the end of the week with mid/upper level
ridging building across the state. There is a low chance of some
afternoon storms to develop on Wednesday (have them generally
in/around the I-10 corridor from the Katy area eastward), but the
rest of the week looks dry with lowering precipitable water values
and increasing subsidence. This translates to increasing
temperatures with inland highs getting into the lower 90s (maybe
even hitting the mid 90s) across a growing part of the area
starting mainly on Thursday and continuing through the weekend
while inland lows generally stay in an upper 60s to low 70s range.
Along the beaches, highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
mid to possibly upper 70s can be expected. We have low rain
chances returning to parts of our northern counties on Saturday
afternoon and then increasing and spreading further southward
heading into mainly late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
as the ridge begins to break down.
42

&&
Stratton20
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This is probably the only week we are going to see potential for rain for an extended period of time, ridging looks to dominate our weather here for quite some time, the big suck weather is coming🥵 dont see any help from the tropics either
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DoctorMu
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We got just a trace of rain a few minutes ago. At least we have a nice outflow breeze as the showers start to die.

About 11-12 days left on the rain doomsday clock until the Death Ridge is locked in.

Hoping for an El Nino miracle and a few short waves.
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jasons2k
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We’ll see what happens. At least we made it through the party without any rain!
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Cromagnum
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Nothing yesterday. Slim chance later today and then it seems the faucet slams shut.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Influence of the upper level trough will decrease slightly today
as ridging begins to build back over Southeast TX. Regardless,
moisture levels, good instability, and the passage of a weak vort
max will be sufficient for the development of a few more rounds of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day today. The strongest
activity is expected to be once again during the late morning to
late evening hours with peak heating and additional influences of
the sea breeze and lingering outflow boundaries. Although the risk
for high rainfall rates have lessened today, some of these
showers and thunderstorms could have a slow storm motion and may
result in ponding of water along roadways and low lying areas.
Storm activity will dimish during the evening hours as
temperatures begin to cool. Speaking of temperatures, today`s
highs will be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 80s to low
90s. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

On Wednesday, most of the Global models indicate the passage of
another vort max moving through the eastern half of the region and
forecast soundings have CAPE values of around 1500-2500 J/kg.
Surface PWs will be around 1.4-1.6 inches, and although it is
slightly drier than today, with the combo of the vort max and
instability, it should be enough to trigger some showers and
thunderstorms. However, a surge of much drier air along the mid
levels will move into Southeast TX in the afternoon and the
influence of the ridge will be a little stronger. Consequently,
rain activity may be limited. Therefore, rain chances are lower
than today and is mostly focused along the central and eastern
regions of Southeast TX, where the sea and bay breeze and vort max
location would provide a better environment for storm formation.
Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and highs a degree or two
warmer than today. Tranquil conditions expected Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Mid-upper level ridging will be building in from the south
Thursday and Friday. This should lead to warmer conditions and
lower rain chances (mainly just an isolated cell or two along the
seabreeze). Ridging flattens over the weekend & rain chances
should trend upward a bit in association with some embedded
disturbances in the flow aloft passing through. Too far out to
focus on any specific time period at this point. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Mostly VFR conditions expected today. Winds will gradually become
SE today at 10 KTS or less. Conditions will again be favorable
today for iso-sct SH/TS to develop, in particular during the
afternoon hours with peak heating. Strong TS will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief MVFR
cigs/vis. Tranquil conditions and light VRB winds expected
tonight. Some patchy fog could develop overnight into early Wed
morning, but confidence is too low to mention in this TAF set.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas will persist
through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain a possibility...mainly today and Wednesday,
then again this weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 67 89 68 / 30 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 88 70 89 71 / 40 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 30 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
Stratton20
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As great as the CPC is, they definitely pulled the trigger too fast on the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks being wetter than normal
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captainbarbossa19
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Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much along the Gulf Coast. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.
Last edited by captainbarbossa19 on Tue May 30, 2023 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 12:56 pm Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.
With that young Captain, are you attending Summer School?
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captainbarbossa19
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tireman4 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 12:59 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 12:56 pm Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.
With that young Captain, are you attending Summer School?
Yes I am. I am taking physics 1 and 2. This fall, I am getting into the heart of my meteorology courses! I will be taking synoptic meteorology and weather forecasting 1!
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 thats awesome! Ive only taken some basic weather courses at a&m during my time here , but i definitely cant handle the math/physics side of weather, overloades my brain😂😂
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 1:13 pm captainbarbossa19 thats awesome! Ive only taken some basic weather courses at a&m during my time here , but i definitely cant handle the math/physics side of weather, overloades my brain😂😂
Thanks. Thankfully, I really like math. I am trying to sign up now as a calculus 2 tutor this summer and fall at Mississippi State. I'm also minoring in mathematics.
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DoctorMu
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Seabreeze drifting westward south of I-10. there's a chance of popcorn showers breaking the cap later this afternoon N to NW of Houston. We'll see. Then the spigot turns off until this weekend as the ridge weakens. Only a 20-40% chance today and this weekend.
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DoctorMu
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The 6-10 day window, especially next weekend into the following week are our best chance of establishing a rainy precedent going into summer. Temps rise and rainfall decreases after that settling into a normal summer pattern...

There's no doubt that El Niño's affect winter weather more than in the summer.

However, this is a very strong El Niño that will impeded hurricane strengthening by increasing mid/upper level shear. We may have a better chance at lemonade - weak systems that spread lighter rain and winds over a larger area.

There is also a chance of closer brushes with the southern jet. However, those s/w effects will be sporadic.
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