May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Wow this weather pattern is amazing. Walked around Market Street Wednesday evening and another walk last night and it felt amazing. Hardly any humidity - I could take this all summer.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 8:13 am Wow this weather pattern is amazing. Walked around Market Street Wednesday evening and another walk last night and it felt amazing. Hardly any humidity - I could take this all summer.
DP is 61 in The Woodlands. It’s 68 here in Wharton. That’s a noticeable difference. I keep hearing y’all talk about this lower humidity but I’m not really feeling a whole lot of it down here.
Stratton20
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Very interesting run on the 12z GFS, it tries to briefly close off a weak low in the NW GOM before moving back inland over texas at hour 156 fwiw
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don
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Yep the GFS is still trying to develop that disturbance. Could be a heavy rain threat also.We'll have to watch the trends to see if more models get onboard or not.The ICON has the system also but its much further south.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_21.jpg
Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 11-25-15 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
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That 12z CMC run is beautiful!
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don
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👆
Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 12-27-15 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:53 pm 👆

Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 12-27-15 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Early June is wet on GFS and CMC and GEPS.

GFS attempts to form a Death Ridge about June 10. GEPS does not. We'll see.

I had to run the sprinklers today. I'm not happy about that. Around Tuesday and next weekend are our next best shot of rain in CLL.
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DoctorMu
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DP down to 56° up here in CLL. Looking forward to that walk/jog with our dog!

Yes - give this to me all summer!
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DoctorMu
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NWS moved rain chances up on Tuesday to 60%. More clouds and rain. Keep it coming.
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 4:26 pm DP down to 56° up here in CLL. Looking forward to that walk/jog with our dog!

Yes - give this to me all summer!
This would be so awesome.
Stratton20
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Model runs today have been pretty boring with the exception of a few mesocale models that still hint at the development of a surface low in 3-4 days
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DoctorMu
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Mesos have most of the rain on Tuesday west of here. Maybe more potential rain closer to Houston. Tuesday's NWS prog has decreased from a 60% to a 40% chance of rain.
Stratton20
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I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
It might be that time where the only rain we get is from the tropics. This week looks decent but after that, oof, not looking good.
redneckweather
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Yep, right on time like every summer around here. Hopefully get some rain this coming week.
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DoctorMu
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redneckweather wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 1:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 11:40 am I hope we get some decent rains over the next ~10 days because I am unfortunately seeing signs even in ensemble guidance of a death ridge pattern developing over the state around the 11th of june
Yep, right on time like every summer around here. Hopefully get some rain this coming week.
Yep. I hate to see yesterday's GFS turn out to be right, but climo is hard to beat, even with a super El Nino cranking up.

GFS shows a deep ridge around the 10th and then a broader SE ridge around the 13th. The GEPS Ensemble created an elongated SETX - GoM ridge.





We have from now until June 9th to get some rain.
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DoctorMu
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The best chance of rain is today or tomorrow this week. I'm already tired of running the sprinklers and A/C.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Mid to upper level shortwave moving across Texas will enhance
rain development across Southeast TX today through Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop mainly along the
coastal locations during the morning hours and as low to mid level
moisture rises and heating ramps up during the day, showers and
thunderstorms will increase and expand further north. There might
be a little more activity along areas influenced by the sea and
bay breeze and storm outflow boundaries later this afternoon into
evening. Localized heavy rainfall is still possible with some of
this activity, most likely during the afternoon to evening hours,
although the rainfall totals are not impressive at the moment.
In
fact, the surface low that models have been hinting at the past
few days is not well defined now and the surge of moisture
associated with this feature isn`t as strong as before either.
Thus, activity may be a little less than what was anticipated
yesterday.
Regardless, the heavy rainfall can still pose a threat,
and for those who will be spending time outdoors or driving
to/from your destinations, you may need to watch out for strong
gusty winds, lightning, and reduced visibilities in and around
these showers and thunderstorms. WPC continues a Slight Risk (2
out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall from this morning through Tuesday
morning for our Southwestern counties, which is where the higher
PWs are and where vort max`s are expected to pass through. There
is a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the rest of Southeast TX.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the night hours tonight, but should be mainly focused over
areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Activity will
increase again on Tuesday, although not as widespread as today`s.
The strongest activity is expected to occur during the afternoon
hours as we heat up and another vort max pushes through. Chance
for rain will decrease Tuesday night with drier air moving in and
ridging starting to build.

The highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s today and
Tuesday. The lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

24


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

A drying pattern is in store for the area starting on Wednesday
and continuing through the end of the week with mid/upper level
ridging building across the state. There is a low chance of some
afternoon storms to develop on Wednesday (have them generally
in/around the I-10 corridor from the Katy area eastward), but the
rest of the week looks dry with lowering precipitable water values
and increasing subsidence. This translates to increasing
temperatures with inland highs getting into the lower 90s (maybe
even hitting the mid 90s) across a growing part of the area
starting mainly on Thursday and continuing through the weekend
while inland lows generally stay in an upper 60s to low 70s range.
Along the beaches, highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
mid to possibly upper 70s can be expected. We have low rain
chances returning to parts of our northern counties on Saturday
afternoon and then increasing and spreading further southward
heading into mainly late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
as the ridge begins to break down.
42

&&
Stratton20
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This is probably the only week we are going to see potential for rain for an extended period of time, ridging looks to dominate our weather here for quite some time, the big suck weather is coming🥵 dont see any help from the tropics either
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DoctorMu
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We got just a trace of rain a few minutes ago. At least we have a nice outflow breeze as the showers start to die.

About 11-12 days left on the rain doomsday clock until the Death Ridge is locked in.

Hoping for an El Nino miracle and a few short waves.
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jasons2k
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We’ll see what happens. At least we made it through the party without any rain!
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