Seems like the CPC is going with the GFS solution as it is pretty wet in that 4-8th timeframe, we will sea
Hinting at a heavy rain event, definitely worth watching the trends this week
May 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4856
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The 8-14 forecasts suggest an elongated GoM ridge/Caribbean forming about June 10.
...and the Ensembles concur.
...and the Ensembles concur.
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That's our window: this weekend into next week for rain.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 2:24 pm Seems like the CPC is going with the GFS solution as it is pretty wet in that 4-8th timeframe, we will sea
Hinting at a heavy rain event, definitely worth watching the trends this week
It’s hot. 93. I’m not the only one either.
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GFS and the GEFS and GEPS ensembles are optimistic in that 4-10 day window. Fingers crossed for 1-2 inches of rain. 
Models are leaning toward more rain in the northern HGX forecast area.
Models are leaning toward more rain in the northern HGX forecast area.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
FXUS64 KHGX 301929
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
229 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level
low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing
thunderstorm development. Currently the majority of the storms are
forming along the seabreeze along the coast, but should expand
inland through the early evening hours. PWATs are around 1.7", and
with little to no storm motion expected, there will be localized
rainfall amounts this afternoon of around one inch or more. Because
of this, WPC has expanded the Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook to
encompass most of the region, though I wouldn`t expect anything more
than just some localized nuisance street ponding in areas of poor
drainage. As the sun sets, so does the storm potential for today.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight into early tomorrow morning,
especially across the northeastern parts of the region.
Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow
bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing
dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage
compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the
building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region
with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
temperatures will again be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of
the region with the immediate coast remaining in the mid 70s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Increased mid/upper ridging is expected to suppress Thursday`s and
Friday`s PoPs. However, the sea breeze boundary and a few weak
shortwaves embedded in the synoptic flow could be enough to result
in isolated shower/thunderstorm activity near the coast.
Afternoons will be humid with temps in the upper-80s to low-90s.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper-60s to low-70s
(warmer near the coast). By the weekend into early next week,
ridging breaks down as a series of mid/upper shortwaves push into
the region. Therefore, PoPs are expected to be on an upward trend
while afternoon temps drop a little. Current NBM leaning PoPs
grids show 20-40 PoPs on Saturday and 30-50 PoPs on Sunday (lower
near the coast). Highest PoPs are over northern counties
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Light east to southeasterly winds will prevail through tomorrow
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form along the sea
breeze near the coast. Expect increasing coverage inland through
the late afternoon/evening, but the storms will be at best
scattered - so have kept the VCTS wording in the TAFs. As the sun
sets, the thunderstorms will dissipate. Overnight tonight there
may be some patchy fog making its way towards CLL and UTS, but
visibility likely won`t drop below MVFR if the fog does fog.
Otherwise VFR conditions persist. There will be a chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but drier
atmospheric conditions will make the coverage less than today.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Generally light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 foot seas will
persist through the forecast period. Isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible today and Wednesday, then again
this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 89 70 90 / 30 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 77 85 / 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
229 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level
low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing
thunderstorm development. Currently the majority of the storms are
forming along the seabreeze along the coast, but should expand
inland through the early evening hours. PWATs are around 1.7", and
with little to no storm motion expected, there will be localized
rainfall amounts this afternoon of around one inch or more. Because
of this, WPC has expanded the Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook to
encompass most of the region, though I wouldn`t expect anything more
than just some localized nuisance street ponding in areas of poor
drainage. As the sun sets, so does the storm potential for today.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight into early tomorrow morning,
especially across the northeastern parts of the region.
Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow
bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing
dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage
compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the
building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region
with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
temperatures will again be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of
the region with the immediate coast remaining in the mid 70s.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Increased mid/upper ridging is expected to suppress Thursday`s and
Friday`s PoPs. However, the sea breeze boundary and a few weak
shortwaves embedded in the synoptic flow could be enough to result
in isolated shower/thunderstorm activity near the coast.
Afternoons will be humid with temps in the upper-80s to low-90s.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper-60s to low-70s
(warmer near the coast). By the weekend into early next week,
ridging breaks down as a series of mid/upper shortwaves push into
the region. Therefore, PoPs are expected to be on an upward trend
while afternoon temps drop a little. Current NBM leaning PoPs
grids show 20-40 PoPs on Saturday and 30-50 PoPs on Sunday (lower
near the coast). Highest PoPs are over northern counties
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Light east to southeasterly winds will prevail through tomorrow
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form along the sea
breeze near the coast. Expect increasing coverage inland through
the late afternoon/evening, but the storms will be at best
scattered - so have kept the VCTS wording in the TAFs. As the sun
sets, the thunderstorms will dissipate. Overnight tonight there
may be some patchy fog making its way towards CLL and UTS, but
visibility likely won`t drop below MVFR if the fog does fog.
Otherwise VFR conditions persist. There will be a chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but drier
atmospheric conditions will make the coverage less than today.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Generally light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 foot seas will
persist through the forecast period. Isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible today and Wednesday, then again
this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 89 70 90 / 30 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 77 85 / 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
Ugh, I just had a big storm just miss me a few miles to my north. Sucks! 
Still toasty.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4856
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CPC sees a heavy rain event similar to what the GFS is thinking in the 6-10th timeframe, houston is right on the edge of it
Gotta just watch the trends
Gotta just watch the trends
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Getting hammered in Beaumont. This was unexpected. Just issued a flash flood Warning for Jefferson county. 1.15” so far and counting in 30min.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I know I know, Beaumont flooding. Whats new. Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
6” per hour rain rates falling from a storm near Spring..geez! That’s a deluge!
But or course, missing me…
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It continues
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Hope springs eternal.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 5:11 pm CPC sees a heavy rain event similar to what the GFS is thinking in the 6-10th timeframe, houston is right on the edge of it
Gotta just watch the trends
But back to watering the lawn for now.
Keep an eye on the forecast.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 5:11 pm CPC sees a heavy rain event similar to what the GFS is thinking in the 6-10th timeframe, houston is right on the edge of it
Gotta just watch the trends