May 2023

[Cromagnum]

Nothing yesterday. Slim chance later today and then it seems the faucet slams shut.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Influence of the upper level trough will decrease slightly today
as ridging begins to build back over Southeast TX. Regardless,
moisture levels, good instability, and the passage of a weak vort
max will be sufficient for the development of a few more rounds of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day today. The strongest
activity is expected to be once again during the late morning to
late evening hours with peak heating and additional influences of
the sea breeze and lingering outflow boundaries. Although the risk
for high rainfall rates have lessened today, some of these
showers and thunderstorms could have a slow storm motion and may
result in ponding of water along roadways and low lying areas.
Storm activity will dimish during the evening hours as
temperatures begin to cool. Speaking of temperatures, today`s
highs will be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 80s to low
90s. The lows overnight into early Wednesday morning will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

On Wednesday, most of the Global models indicate the passage of
another vort max moving through the eastern half of the region and
forecast soundings have CAPE values of around 1500-2500 J/kg.
Surface PWs will be around 1.4-1.6 inches, and although it is
slightly drier than today, with the combo of the vort max and
instability, it should be enough to trigger some showers and
thunderstorms. However, a surge of much drier air along the mid
levels will move into Southeast TX in the afternoon and the
influence of the ridge will be a little stronger. Consequently,
rain activity may be limited. Therefore, rain chances are lower
than today and is mostly focused along the central and eastern
regions of Southeast TX, where the sea and bay breeze and vort max
location would provide a better environment for storm formation.
Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and highs a degree or two
warmer than today. Tranquil conditions expected Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Mid-upper level ridging will be building in from the south
Thursday and Friday. This should lead to warmer conditions and
lower rain chances (mainly just an isolated cell or two along the
seabreeze). Ridging flattens over the weekend & rain chances
should trend upward a bit in association with some embedded
disturbances in the flow aloft passing through. Too far out to
focus on any specific time period at this point. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Mostly VFR conditions expected today. Winds will gradually become
SE today at 10 KTS or less. Conditions will again be favorable
today for iso-sct SH/TS to develop, in particular during the
afternoon hours with peak heating. Strong TS will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief MVFR
cigs/vis. Tranquil conditions and light VRB winds expected
tonight. Some patchy fog could develop overnight into early Wed
morning, but confidence is too low to mention in this TAF set.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas will persist
through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain a possibility...mainly today and Wednesday,
then again this weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 67 89 68 / 30 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 88 70 89 71 / 40 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 30 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

As great as the CPC is, they definitely pulled the trigger too fast on the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks being wetter than normal

[captainbarbossa19]

Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much along the Gulf Coast. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.

[tireman4]

Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.

With that young Captain, are you attending Summer School?

[captainbarbossa19]

Not really surprised with weather. A few years ago, I performed some research on ENSO effects on precipitation and temperature in Lafayette, LA in my physical climatology class at Mississippi State. What I found is that ENSO really doesn't impact summer precip much. It has a much stronger effect in spring and winter. However, I will say that if spring is dry or wet, that tends to translate into summer. During the summer, it is better to look at the state of other teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, etc. because they can have a greater effect on the placement of troughs and ridges during the summer months.

With that young Captain, are you attending Summer School?

Yes I am. I am taking physics 1 and 2. This fall, I am getting into the heart of my meteorology courses! I will be taking synoptic meteorology and weather forecasting 1!

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 thats awesome! Ive only taken some basic weather courses at a&m during my time here , but i definitely cant handle the math/physics side of weather, overloades my brain

[captainbarbossa19]

captainbarbossa19 thats awesome! Ive only taken some basic weather courses at a&m during my time here , but i definitely cant handle the math/physics side of weather, overloades my brain

Thanks. Thankfully, I really like math. I am trying to sign up now as a calculus 2 tutor this summer and fall at Mississippi State. I'm also minoring in mathematics.

[DoctorMu]

Seabreeze drifting westward south of I-10. there's a chance of popcorn showers breaking the cap later this afternoon N to NW of Houston. We'll see. Then the spigot turns off until this weekend as the ridge weakens. Only a 20-40% chance today and this weekend.

[DoctorMu]

The 6-10 day window, especially next weekend into the following week are our best chance of establishing a rainy precedent going into summer. Temps rise and rainfall decreases after that settling into a normal summer pattern...

There's no doubt that El Niño's affect winter weather more than in the summer.

However, this is a very strong El Niño that will impeded hurricane strengthening by increasing mid/upper level shear. We may have a better chance at lemonade - weak systems that spread lighter rain and winds over a larger area.

There is also a chance of closer brushes with the southern jet. However, those s/w effects will be sporadic.

[Stratton20]

Seems like the CPC is going with the GFS solution as it is pretty wet in that 4-8th timeframe, we will sea
Hinting at a heavy rain event, definitely worth watching the trends this week

[DoctorMu]

The 8-14 forecasts suggest an elongated GoM ridge/Caribbean forming about June 10.

...and the Ensembles concur.

[DoctorMu]

Seems like the CPC is going with the GFS solution as it is pretty wet in that 4-8th timeframe, we will sea
Hinting at a heavy rain event, definitely worth watching the trends this week

That's our window: this weekend into next week for rain.

[jasons2k]

It’s hot. 93. I’m not the only one either.

[DoctorMu]

GFS and the GEFS and GEPS ensembles are optimistic in that 4-10 day window. Fingers crossed for 1-2 inches of rain.

Models are leaning toward more rain in the northern HGX forecast area.

[DoctorMu]

It’s hot. 93. I’m not the only one either.

Upper 80s here, but we'll hit 90°F unless more clouds roll in. Cumulus heights are building out there...

Then again 90°F could break the cap and lead to a better chance of rain.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 301929
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
229 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

A weak disturbance embedded in the backside of a large upper level
low in the Central Gulf is passing through SE Texas today enhancing
thunderstorm development. Currently the majority of the storms are
forming along the seabreeze along the coast, but should expand
inland through the early evening hours. PWATs are around 1.7", and
with little to no storm motion expected, there will be localized
rainfall amounts this afternoon of around one inch or more. Because
of this, WPC has expanded the Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook to
encompass most of the region, though I wouldn`t expect anything more
than just some localized nuisance street ponding in areas of poor
drainage. As the sun sets, so does the storm potential for today.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight into early tomorrow morning,
especially across the northeastern parts of the region.

Another weak disturbance will move through the area tomorrow
bringing again the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, but increasing
dry air and upperlevel ridging to the west will limit storm coverage
compared to the past few days. The increasing heights due to the
building ridge will help bring warming temperatures to the region
with afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
temperatures will again be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of
the region with the immediate coast remaining in the mid 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Increased mid/upper ridging is expected to suppress Thursday`s and
Friday`s PoPs. However, the sea breeze boundary and a few weak
shortwaves embedded in the synoptic flow could be enough to result
in isolated shower/thunderstorm activity near the coast.
Afternoons will be humid with temps in the upper-80s to low-90s.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper-60s to low-70s
(warmer near the coast). By the weekend into early next week,
ridging breaks down as a series of mid/upper shortwaves push into
the region. Therefore, PoPs are expected to be on an upward trend
while afternoon temps drop a little. Current NBM leaning PoPs
grids show 20-40 PoPs on Saturday and 30-50 PoPs on Sunday (lower
near the coast). Highest PoPs are over northern counties

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Light east to southeasterly winds will prevail through tomorrow
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form along the sea
breeze near the coast. Expect increasing coverage inland through
the late afternoon/evening, but the storms will be at best
scattered - so have kept the VCTS wording in the TAFs. As the sun
sets, the thunderstorms will dissipate. Overnight tonight there
may be some patchy fog making its way towards CLL and UTS, but
visibility likely won`t drop below MVFR if the fog does fog.
Otherwise VFR conditions persist. There will be a chance of
isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but drier
atmospheric conditions will make the coverage less than today.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Generally light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 foot seas will
persist through the forecast period. Isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible today and Wednesday, then again
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 89 70 90 / 30 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 77 85 / 10 20 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

[Cpv17]

Ugh, I just had a big storm just miss me a few miles to my north. Sucks!

[jasons2k]

Still toasty.

[Stratton20]

CPC sees a heavy rain event similar to what the GFS is thinking in the 6-10th timeframe, houston is right on the edge of it
Gotta just watch the trends