May 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
why does the SOI crashing mean more rain for us?
Enhances the subtropical jet/aids in the formation of El Niño.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 231120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Rapidly weakening showers and thunderstorms working their way out of
north central Texas might edge their way into parts of our northern
counties this morning. Have low rain chances in that area in case
something survives. Did raise Pops for the rest of the area today as
any boundaries from this activity combined with daytime heating
might result in some development, but kept the values just below the
mention of rain as current thinking is that activity will be quite
isolated. We will monitor as the morning/day progresses and adjust
rain chances upward as needed. Similar situation can be expected
late tonight through the day on Wednesday as additional development
in a northwest flow aloft tries to work its way into our area. In
this case, confidence is better that we will see some rain, so have
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Anything that does develop should dissipate Wednesday evening.
For temperatures, much of the area should see highs today reach the
upper 80s to around 90 (closer to the mid 80s at the beaches), and
lows tonight should bottom out in the mid to upper 60s with some
spots in the Houston area having trouble falling below 70 (closer to
the mid 70s at the beaches). Have similar temperature forecasts for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, but Wednesday`s highs might end up a
couple degrees cooler where rains develop.
42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Global models have indicated little change to the extended pattern
with a blocking pattern dominating the CONUS throughout the end of
the week and into the upcoming weekend, bringing SE TX a period of
generally benign and consistent weather. Rainfall from the passage
of Wednesday`s midlevel shortwave is generally expected to have
tapered off by early Thursday. However, depending on the exact
timing of the feature along with the potential for any lingering
boundaries associated with dispersed convection from Wednesday, a
stray storm or two cannot fully be ruled out early on Thursday.
Otherwise, with midlevel ridging continuing to dominate the area
through the weekend, the prevailing trend of warm and humid
conditions with limited rainfall chances is expected to continue.
A slight breakdown of the midlevel ridge is expected by late
Saturday/early Sunday, with both the GFS and the EC now indicating
the approach of a very weak surface boundary during this time.
While moisture will remain abundant (total PWs of ~1.5-7) during
this time, forcing will otherwise be relatively weak and thus only
scattered to isolated convection is anticipated with minimal
rainfall totals. Midlevel flow will become increasingly zonal by
Monday/Tuesday, with synoptic models now indicating the approach
of a more potent midlevel shortwave. This should be sufficient
enough to trigger some scattered thunderstorm activity, and as a
result have included 20-30% PoP in this forecast package.
Overall, temperature forecast has remained generally on track and
consistent from previous issuances with daytime highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s. Given
relatively weak WAA and thus slightly lower surface dew points,
maximum heat index values do not look to exceed 95.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Fog at some TAF sites early this morning will lift and burn off after
sunrise. VFR conditions along with light and variable winds can be expected
today. Weak boundaries generated by overnight north-central Texas SHRA/TSRA
might be able to generate some rains today, but for now will not mention
in the TAFs. Quiet this evening, then we will be monitoring the next
SHRA/TSRA complex that will be heading toward SE TX late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. For now, just have VCSH for CLL. An increase
in SHRA/TSRA chances is in store for much of the area on Wednesday.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Light winds and low seas will continue to prevail throughout the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with neither seas nor
wind speeds expected to approach caution thresholds over the next
seven days. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Wednesday
as a disturbance moves through the area, but strong storms are not
expected to occur.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 89 68 89 69 / 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 75 86 75 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 231120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Rapidly weakening showers and thunderstorms working their way out of
north central Texas might edge their way into parts of our northern
counties this morning. Have low rain chances in that area in case
something survives. Did raise Pops for the rest of the area today as
any boundaries from this activity combined with daytime heating
might result in some development, but kept the values just below the
mention of rain as current thinking is that activity will be quite
isolated. We will monitor as the morning/day progresses and adjust
rain chances upward as needed. Similar situation can be expected
late tonight through the day on Wednesday as additional development
in a northwest flow aloft tries to work its way into our area. In
this case, confidence is better that we will see some rain, so have
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Anything that does develop should dissipate Wednesday evening.
For temperatures, much of the area should see highs today reach the
upper 80s to around 90 (closer to the mid 80s at the beaches), and
lows tonight should bottom out in the mid to upper 60s with some
spots in the Houston area having trouble falling below 70 (closer to
the mid 70s at the beaches). Have similar temperature forecasts for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, but Wednesday`s highs might end up a
couple degrees cooler where rains develop.
42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Global models have indicated little change to the extended pattern
with a blocking pattern dominating the CONUS throughout the end of
the week and into the upcoming weekend, bringing SE TX a period of
generally benign and consistent weather. Rainfall from the passage
of Wednesday`s midlevel shortwave is generally expected to have
tapered off by early Thursday. However, depending on the exact
timing of the feature along with the potential for any lingering
boundaries associated with dispersed convection from Wednesday, a
stray storm or two cannot fully be ruled out early on Thursday.
Otherwise, with midlevel ridging continuing to dominate the area
through the weekend, the prevailing trend of warm and humid
conditions with limited rainfall chances is expected to continue.
A slight breakdown of the midlevel ridge is expected by late
Saturday/early Sunday, with both the GFS and the EC now indicating
the approach of a very weak surface boundary during this time.
While moisture will remain abundant (total PWs of ~1.5-7) during
this time, forcing will otherwise be relatively weak and thus only
scattered to isolated convection is anticipated with minimal
rainfall totals. Midlevel flow will become increasingly zonal by
Monday/Tuesday, with synoptic models now indicating the approach
of a more potent midlevel shortwave. This should be sufficient
enough to trigger some scattered thunderstorm activity, and as a
result have included 20-30% PoP in this forecast package.
Overall, temperature forecast has remained generally on track and
consistent from previous issuances with daytime highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s. Given
relatively weak WAA and thus slightly lower surface dew points,
maximum heat index values do not look to exceed 95.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Fog at some TAF sites early this morning will lift and burn off after
sunrise. VFR conditions along with light and variable winds can be expected
today. Weak boundaries generated by overnight north-central Texas SHRA/TSRA
might be able to generate some rains today, but for now will not mention
in the TAFs. Quiet this evening, then we will be monitoring the next
SHRA/TSRA complex that will be heading toward SE TX late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. For now, just have VCSH for CLL. An increase
in SHRA/TSRA chances is in store for much of the area on Wednesday.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Light winds and low seas will continue to prevail throughout the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with neither seas nor
wind speeds expected to approach caution thresholds over the next
seven days. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Wednesday
as a disturbance moves through the area, but strong storms are not
expected to occur.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 89 68 89 69 / 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 75 86 75 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady
NW flow. Bring me some cold core ULLs all summer long!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 22, 2023 10:29 pm Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I love the 500 mb height pattern starting to show up on all of the models, big ridge building in canada allowing a parade of storm systems ro move across our neck of the woods from the desert SW, now thats a good setup for rain!
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Today's SOI is at-60, I never seen it this low and it's a legit value
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
From your lips to God's ears.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue May 23, 2023 11:43 amNW flow. Bring me some cold core ULLs all summer long!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 22, 2023 10:29 pm Cpv17 ah i see! Well thats good! And the GFS is quite interesting, has a slow moving upper low coming out of west texas next week
Team #NeverSummer
This was unexpected. Was soaking the lawn, listening to a conference call and BOOM.
Sprinklers off now!
Sprinklers off now!
- Attachments
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 345 PM CDT.
* At 322 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Panorama Village, or over Willis, moving southeast
at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Cut And Shoot around 335 PM CDT.
Woodloch around 340 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 345 PM CDT.
* At 322 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Panorama Village, or over Willis, moving southeast
at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Cut And Shoot around 335 PM CDT.
Woodloch around 340 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
Latest
- Attachments
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This already looks a little dated…who woulda thought?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
...New MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Ridging spanning across the Plains should keep conditions mostly benign today, save for a few showers and storms. PWs are near 1.4- 1.6," with highs progged to reach the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Currently there`s one small storm over the northern third of our CWA, associated with a passing shortwave trough currently visible in water vapor imagery. Additional storm
develop will be possible along the sea breeze late this afternoon,
mainly in areas south of I-10. Storm activity diminishes after
sunset as daytime heating wanes.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
...New MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Ridging spanning across the Plains should keep conditions mostly benign today, save for a few showers and storms. PWs are near 1.4- 1.6," with highs progged to reach the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Currently there`s one small storm over the northern third of our CWA, associated with a passing shortwave trough currently visible in water vapor imagery. Additional storm
develop will be possible along the sea breeze late this afternoon,
mainly in areas south of I-10. Storm activity diminishes after
sunset as daytime heating wanes.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
West central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 339 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Woodloch, or
near Conroe, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
roofs, and outbuildings.
* Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Humble, Spring, Kingwood, The Woodlands, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Cut And Shoot, Plum Grove, Woodloch, Bush Intercontinental Airport, Atascocita, Chateau Woods, Porter Heights, Lake Houston and New Caney.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
West central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 339 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Woodloch, or
near Conroe, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
roofs, and outbuildings.
* Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Humble, Spring, Kingwood, The Woodlands, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Cut And Shoot, Plum Grove, Woodloch, Bush Intercontinental Airport, Atascocita, Chateau Woods, Porter Heights, Lake Houston and New Caney.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Busy afternoon.
- Attachments
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Wow that's a potent rouge supercell.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
looks like ridging was weaker than anticipated
Storms are dive bombing Houston. Tora! Tora! Tora!