May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:58 pm If the Extended Euro is correct, MAY could be a very wet month for the state as a whole
May is the wettest period per climo, so not exactly going out on limb.

The key has been the ENSO shift and SJT. Working in our favor. Could get some troughs. Also an expanded sea breeze.

That does mean nasty 70°F+ DPs within a week, though.
Stratton20
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Doctormu ill take the trade off haha, cant have everything go you’re way in weather lol, but that 12z GFS is lovely, not just for SE texas but whole state
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:12 pm Doctormu ill take the trade off haha, cant have everything go you’re way in weather lol, but that 12z GFS is lovely, not just for SE texas but whole state
The 6z looked way better lol
Stratton20
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Cpv17 fair point haha, still looks good though, lord knows the folks out in west texas need the rain pretty badly, el nino to the rescue haha
Iceresistance
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AMM is going positive!
Cpv17
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The 0z EPS has a very wet signal across southeast TX.
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DoctorMu
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Warm, but dry today. Enjoy the lower DPs while they last. The Big Suck begins this weekend with hot and humid conditions. Maybe a 20-30% chance of rain late in the week in CLL as we could see some showers along disturbances from Mexico.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

Today, an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Great Basin will find
itself caught between two troughs (centered over the West coast and
Northeast CONUS respectively). This will establish an omega block
pattern across the continental US, bringing warm and quiet weather
through the first half of the work week. Southwesterly flow aloft,
clear skies and 850mb temperatures around 14-17C should work to
improve afternoon heating, bringing highs in the 80s across the
region. Gradual moisture return and shortwave energy passing
overhead will allow for cloudy skies to fill in from west to east
this evening. Paired with rising dewpoints, this will keep lows in
the 50s/60s overnight.

Cloudy skies continue into Tuesday as PWs creep towards 1 inch while
additional shortwave energy rounds the bottom of the aforementioned
ridge. Rain chances remain slim to none during the day due to strong
capping present across the region. 850mb temperatures drop by a
degree or so with winds at this level shifting towards the SE.
Paired this with cloudy skies and ever-increasing moisture, highs
are progged to only reach the mid to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows for
Tuesday night will be in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the
coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

A gradual warming/modifying trend is anticipated with a prevalent
flow off the Gulf. Dewpoints currently in the 50s will trend
upward into the 70s by the end of the work week. Gone will be the
cool overnight temps...and with warmer starts to the day look for
daytime highs to eventually flirt with the 90 degree mark later
this week. As far as rain chances go, we`ll see a stream of weak,
hard-to-time disturbances embedded in the sw flow aloft moving
across Mexico and into the area through the weekend. These will probably
enhance shra/tstm chances at times for parts of the area...maybe
as soon as Thurs night & early Fri if some of the guidance is
correct. Otherwise, will generally broad brush some scattered diurnally
driven precip each day as a starting point and amend as fcst confidence
improves if/when some of these impulses are better identified and
timed. 47

&&
Stratton20
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Thankfully that omega block pattern wont be around long, definitely dont want that heat ridge just sitting over us, luckily the pattern ahead favors pretty wet conditions
With a ridge centered over the GOM and SE, that will help to slow down any systems that approach the state, while we need the rain, some of the guidance is hinting at a heavy rain event down the road, especially on the euro and CMC, pattern is their for heavy rain, just gotta wait and see how all the pieces of the puzzle come together
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 12:07 pm Thankfully that omega block pattern wont be around long, definitely dont want that heat ridge just sitting over us, luckily the pattern ahead favors pretty wet conditions
With a ridge centered over the GOM and SE, that will help to slow down any systems that approach the state, while we need the rain, some of the guidance is hinting at a heavy rain event down the road, especially on the euro and CMC, pattern is their for heavy rain, just gotta wait and see how all the pieces of the puzzle come together
Reed Timmer mentioned that the NPO will force the Omega Block into a favorable pattern for us.
Iceresistance
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Stratton20
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Iceresistance yep potential is their, ridging over the SE basically funnels the moisture pineapple express train right over texas and oklahoma, interesting next couple of weeks
Stratton20
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Just in from the CPC, things could get interesting around the 10th
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Ptarmigan
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May has had heavy rains and floods in the past. Heavy rain and flooding have occurred in May, like in 1907, 1929, 1981, 1989, 2015, and 2016.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:57 pm May has had heavy rains and floods in the past. Heavy rain and flooding have occurred in May, like in 1907, 1929, 1981, 1989, 2015, and 2016.
The Memorial Day flood of 2015 was ridiculous. In Houston there was a foot of rain in 7 hours.
Cpv17
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There’s a big difference between the Euro/EPS vs the GFS/GEFS. The Euro and its ensemble are much wetter for southeast TX. The GFS and its ensemble keep more of the rain over central and north Texas.
jabcwb2
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Iceresistance wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 2:25 pm Oh lord, that is a LOT of rain!

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Rainfall.png
Gracious! When is that coming???
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DoctorMu
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^Allegedly the front stalls just past CLL. Again. We'll see.
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DoctorMu
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jabcwb2 wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 11:43 am
Iceresistance wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 2:25 pm Oh lord, that is a LOT of rain!

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Rainfall.png
Gracious! When is that coming???
Yeah, the models and some of the ensembles are moving north with the rain.
Stratton20
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Of course they are, still not sold yet on the northward placement as the Euro and EPS largely disagree with other guidance
Cpv17
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The latest CPC forecast is more in line with the Euro.

And I’m gonna mention that the CPC is also showing above average temperatures for us. Therefore the storms will have more fuel to work with so there will probably be more potential for severe weather and the rains will also be really heavy.
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