May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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00z Euro looks so much better for rainfall across se texas during the next 10 days, widespread 2-4 inches😁
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 2:22 am 00z Euro looks so much better for rainfall across se texas during the next 10 days, widespread 2-4 inches😁
It definitely looks better than the GFS.
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 311158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

With the broad mid/upper level trough(low) lingering over the Cen-
tral Gulf, isolated to scattered rain chances will remain possible
mainly over the southern half of the CWA through this afternoon as
weak disturbances move in from the north. Slightly lower PWs along
with a slowly building ridge aloft (from the west) will help limit
coverage with the bulk of the activity dissipating around sunset.
The aforementioned ridging aloft will bring a quieter (but warmer)
pattern tomorrow. Today`s highs are going to warm in the upper 80s
to around 90...with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s. Lows tonight/
tomorrow night will range from upper 60s to lower 70s over most of
the area...mid 70s along the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Mid-upper ridging on Friday should keep chances of rainfall on the
low end - if any. Ridge flattens over the weekend which should
allow for less subsidence and chances for some scattered showers
and tstms (mainly diurnally driven). Guidance does show some
impulses embedded in the upper flow passing through, or close to,
the region into early next week that should aid in overall chances.
That said, model-to-model and run-to-run consistency isn`t the
best so confidence on narrowing down any specific favored area or
time isn`t particularly high at this point. Sunday & Monday look
to have better chances than Saturday.

Ridging builds back northward from Mexico into West Texas during
the early and middle parts of next week. NW flow aloft should
emerge locally which should lead to decreasing POPs (assuming
it`s void of significant disturbances upstream). 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Not too many changes with the mostly VFR trends from the previous TAF
package with this one. Light SE winds (5-8 kts) to develop across the
region this afternoon...with the isolated to scattered activity like-
ly remaining mostly over the southern half of the CWA (i.e. IAH south
to the coast). Any activity that does form should be ending at/around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Tonight, patchy fog could be
an issue at our more northern terminals tonight (mostly CXO), but may
be short-lived. Tomorrow looks to be drier...as per the strengthening
ridge aloft. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

A light wind regime should remain in place for the next several
days. Though directions will generally be onshore, a landbreeze
and associated light offshore winds are a possibility in the late
night and early mornings. Seas should remain at or below 3 feet
through the period. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 67 89 69 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 88 69 89 70 / 30 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 77 85 77 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
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DoctorMu
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^ Yeah, that doesn't look good long term. Sunday/Monday or bust.

We had a lot of bust last night, surrounded by cells and nothing..


Sunday & Monday look
to have better chances than Saturday.

Ridging builds back northward from Mexico into West Texas during
the early and middle parts of next week. NW flow aloft should
emerge locally which should lead to decreasing POPs (assuming
it`s void of significant disturbances upstream). 47
Stratton20
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Good news is it doesnt appear the death ridge will build right over se texas, models are in agreement that the ridge will likely build over west texas, we will still be pretty hot, but the core of the heat should stay in central and west texas, could be worse
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tireman4
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Rain shower in Gulfgate. Hmmmm
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tireman4
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0
FXUS64 KHGX 311931
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
231 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

If you like typical early summer weather then do we have a treat
for you! It`s a muggy afternoon out there with temps inching
towards the 90 degree mark. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to pop up on radar. Expect isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms to continue through the afternoon. These
showers/storms will meet their demise with the loss of daytime
heating this evening. Overnight lows will generally be in the
upper-60s to low-70s. The heart of Houston`s urban heat island
could struggle to drop below the mid-70s. Areas near the
immediate coast are expected to drop into the mid/upper-70s.

Mid/upper ridging increases for our Thursday. This will have the
tendency to suppress PoPs. That being said, the presence of subtle
shortwaves embedded in the synoptic flow coupled with diurnal
mesoscale processes (example: sea breeze) means that we cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm, particularly over our
southern counties. Afternoon temps are expected to be a little
hotter as well with most of the CWA warming into the low-90s. A
toasty start to June indeed!

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

There is not much signal in ensemble guidance for any weather
features of particular note in the long term, with ensemble means
not indicating any particularly large deviations from climatology,
and no clusters within the multi-model guidance as a whole
indicating a scenario significantly different from the mean. All
this would tend to indicate that the NBM should do a pretty good job
here, so I`m not looking to do much more than hedge against the
typical NBM bugaboos (winds, afternoon dewpoints, coastal high
temps, looking at y`all).

If there are any bigger issues, one of them comes pretty early in
the long term. With an upper ridge axis setup just to our west,
Friday and even into Saturday puts us in a northwest flow regime.
Guidance does fire up some convection upstream, and models -
especially globals - are naturally going to struggle with the
evolution of these weakly forced MCSs. So, while PoPs are fairly
low, I do want to ensure that we do have some rain chances for any
overnight storms trying to make their way into the area before
fizzling out. Those PoPs will focus more in the northwest, as
they`ll have the best chance to catch any weakening storms, and even
there, chances should be climo-ish as this is a fairly routine
pattern for this time of year.

Beyond any potential northwest flow kerfuffles, ridging should make
for otherwise fair weather and temperatures a touch on the warm side
of average for early June. Eventually, as we push into the late
weekend and next week, this ridging looks to flatten out as upper
shortwave troughs blunt it. This should allow for a more typical
summertime diurnal pattern to prevail, including a daily scattering
of showers and storms. This is also likely to mean temperatures
around average - a bit warmer if you don`t get rain, a bit cooler if
you do. Though the placement of storms each day will be pocked and
relatively random, the seabreeze will, as usual, provide a
convergence zone that will slightly favor storm development.

One final thing we`ll have to keep an eye out for is that while the
blunting of the early weekend ridge should generally make for zonal
flow across the state next week, there are some hints of a closed
upper low developing out of one of the shortwave troughs towards the
middle of next week. This is particularly apparent in the
deterministic Euro. This is certainly too far out to talk about with
a lot of certainty, but should that happen, we should be looking at
the mid-week period as one with relatively higher rain chances and
slightly cooler temps. Even if we are to accept one deterministic
model in the long range at face value (and we shan`t), the end
result would be more a modulation on the summertime pattern than a
significant pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Iso
TSRA expected this afternoon across coastal counties, hence the
VCTS in the TAF from IAH points south. Could have localized sub
VFR conditions tomorrow morning. CXO and LBX have the best chance
of briefly dropping below VFR tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Very little of note to discuss in the marine portion of the
forecast. Without significant weather drivers, we`ll look to the
seabreeze/landbreeze cycle to be the primary winds. Expect seas to
be relatively low, three feet or less throughout. Isolated showers
or storms at the very most are expected next week, generally in the
typical late night and early morning hours for summertime
development on the Gulf. On the bays, the daily pattern would tend
to favor the late morning into the afternoons for any activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 90 71 92 / 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 77 88 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
Cpv17
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Winnie area around Chambers County getting hit pretty hard right now.
Cromagnum
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What do ya know? Raining near Beaumont again... Wish the rest of us could cash in more frequently.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 12:47 pm Good news is it doesnt appear the death ridge will build right over se texas, models are in agreement that the ridge will likely build over west texas, we will still be pretty hot, but the core of the heat should stay in central and west texas, could be worse
The ridge will be elongated after June 10. It's very, very bad.

The good news is that the Euro sees a nice, juicy trough from June 5-10. Fingers crossed.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 3:31 pm What do ya know? Raining near Beaumont again... Wish the rest of us could cash in more frequently.
It's part of Louisiana... ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGs2iLoDUYE
Stratton20
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DoctorMu dont think it will be around too long, maybe a week at most, with el nino i expect these heat ridges will be more transitory and not permanently stuck , definitely do not expect a repeat of last summer where the ridge just set on top of us all summer
I do see a stretch of low to mid 90’s, but the 100’s should stay in west /central texas , thanks goodness for el nino
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 4:07 pm DoctorMu dont think it will be around too long, maybe a week at most, with el nino i expect these heat ridges will be more transitory and not permanently stuck , definitely do not expect a repeat of last summer where the ridge just set on top of us all summer
I do see a stretch of low to mid 90’s, but the 100’s should stay in west /central texas , thanks goodness for el nino
El Nino sometimes doesn't have a big impact on summer weather in SETX, except a lower risk of a major hurricane. We still have a window until June 10th or so.

If the Death Ridge establishes itself during June, instead of July that's usually not a good sign. We'll see.

We have upper level vortices on the SJT that flirt with Texas for the next 10-12 days, then the SJT lifts about June 13 on GFS. By June 15 virtually all models and ensembles agree on zonal flow, GFS lift from our area, and a TX DR.

You can see the stronger upperlevel winds literally to around the Death Ridge.
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Cromagnum
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Yep. Looks like the trust old I10 wall is doing it's job. Hosed again.
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DoctorMu
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The easterlies are already starting in Florida. They'll see rain every other day or more until the end of September.

As Jerry Reed once sang: She got the Goldmine, and I got the Shaft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyqe8n-pbqQ
Stratton20
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DoctorMu well lets hope the DR breaks down and or is weaker this summer
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 31, 2023 5:20 pm The easterlies are already starting in Florida. They'll see rain every other day or more until the end of September.

As Jerry Reed once sang: She got the Goldmine, and I got the Shaft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyqe8n-pbqQ
El Niño or La Niña doesn’t seem to have any impacts on FL weather. Dry there during the winters and wet during the summers. And most temps there don’t ever get above 95°F.
Stratton20
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Outlook just issued for JUNE and its a good one! Whens the last time we have seen a June outlook this nice? CPC isnt buying into a death ridge sitting over the state
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Ptarmigan
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Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico.

Image

Image

There is a remote chance of it developing.

Image
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jasons2k
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Kinda irritated that tonight, on Fox 26, Rameisha Shade talked about summer starting in 3 weeks, versus educating the public on what the meteorological summer is.
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