May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Iceresistance wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:40 am Today's daily SOI is even lower at -64.63!
That is really low. I think a strong El Nino is likely. How strong? Anyone's guess.
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:04 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
Lower humidity is pleasant for all during this time of year and you’re right, rain needs to come with it over time. I’m at about 15” for the year which is better than the last few at this time. Hope it continues
Most of the rain looks to be west of I-35 and especially towards the panhandle into western Oklahoma and Kansas. That’s good. They need it desperately.

We’ve bound to get some rain here eventually seeing how the SOI is tanking. We don’t really need any rain now but I’m sure by the beginning of June most of us could use a drink again.
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This is the nicest May I can remember in a long time. I love the 60's dewpoints lasting this far in, it's amazing.

It can rain in the summer. No need to spoil this right now.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Generally look for partly cloudy skies through the period. There
could be possible shower/thunderstorm development today, mainly near
the coast and especially offshore in the morning followed by mainly
near and south of the Interstate 10 corridor in the afternoon. There
is not a whole lot of afternoon development showing up in the latest
available models, and a majority of the area could end up staying
dry. With the gradually building mid/upper level ridge and gradually
lowering precipitable water values heading into Friday and Friday
night, will keep the forecast dry but some isolated spots could end
up lucky and experience a brief shower/storm.

High temperatures for both today and Friday will be mostly in the
mid to upper 80s with a spot or two probably topping out at 90 or
91. Low temperatures for both tonight and Friday night should range
from the mid to upper 60s north, upper 60s to lower 70s central/
southern areas and in the mid 70s at the beaches.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

It will be a great weekend as relatively dry and warm conditions
are to prevail in response to mid-upper level ridging persisting
over Southeast TX. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies along with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the 60s. The
lows overnight into the early morning hours will be in the low to
mid 60s along the Piney Woods region, in the upper 60s over the
rest of the inland portions, and in the low 70s along areas near
the coasts and bays.

A shift in the weather pattern is still expected on Monday as
ridging begins to weaken in response to an upper level trough
making its way into the Southern Plains. Models show that ridging
along the mid levels may take a bit longer to weaken. But with
sufficient moisture and an slight increase in instability,
diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop
Monday afternoon. More favorable conditions for the formation of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday
as low level moisture and instability increases and a few
shortwaves move overhead. Models are not in full agreement of how
much rain and where it will rain for these two days, and the NBM
still favors a "drier" output; continued instead with a blended
solution and kept PoPs at 30% or less for Tuesday and 25% or less
for Wednesday. Aside from the rain chances, the highs next week
will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, maybe a degree or two less
on Tuesday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Any patchy early morning fog will dissipate after sunrise. VFR for
the rest of the day with NE winds around 4 to 7 knots. Very isolated
afternoon SHRA/TSRA could develop (mainly near and south of I-10) but
will not include in the TAFs for now. Quiet tonight with light winds.
Tomorrow (Friday) looks similar to today. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Light E-NE winds expected through the end of the work week. Light
S-SE flow will return this weekend and continue through the rest
of the forecast period. Seas will generally stay around 2 feet or
less but may increase to 3 feet offshore at times. Chance for
showers and thunderstorms could return early next week into mid
week as ridging weakens in response to a few shortwaves moving
across the region.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 67 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 69 90 69 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 75 86 75 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42
MARINE...24
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DoctorMu
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A pretty nice morning with an ENE breeze about 10 mph. Temp still in the 70s. Dewpoint below 70. It's more like June in NC that SETX
Cpv17
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Dew points are in the low 70’s here. Still plenty sticky and hot at my location. Feels about normal for late May to me.
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don
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imrage1.png
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

No significant issues with this TAF package as light NE surface winds
help to keep a slightly drier air mass in place across the region for
the rest of this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Some models con-
tinue to indicate very isolated activity developing later this after-
noon, but chances should be too low to add any mention in the TAFS at
this time. But will add the mention of patchy fog (~6sm) at the usual
terminals overnight/early Fri morning. Otherwise, VFR. 41
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don
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Pretty good agreement today coming in between the models of widespread rain coming back around the first of June.As a disturbance moves over SE Texas.The ICON and GFS even hint at some tropical development once the disturbance gets into the Gulf.Not that im buying that though...
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:25 pm
davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:04 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
Lower humidity is pleasant for all during this time of year and you’re right, rain needs to come with it over time. I’m at about 15” for the year which is better than the last few at this time. Hope it continues
Most of the rain looks to be west of I-35 and especially towards the panhandle into western Oklahoma and Kansas. That’s good. They need it desperately.

We’ve bound to get some rain here eventually seeing how the SOI is tanking. We don’t really need any rain now but I’m sure by the beginning of June most of us could use a drink again.
They can use the rain for sure. 8-)
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jasons2k
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Wow this weather pattern is amazing. Walked around Market Street Wednesday evening and another walk last night and it felt amazing. Hardly any humidity - I could take this all summer.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 8:13 am Wow this weather pattern is amazing. Walked around Market Street Wednesday evening and another walk last night and it felt amazing. Hardly any humidity - I could take this all summer.
DP is 61 in The Woodlands. It’s 68 here in Wharton. That’s a noticeable difference. I keep hearing y’all talk about this lower humidity but I’m not really feeling a whole lot of it down here.
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Very interesting run on the 12z GFS, it tries to briefly close off a weak low in the NW GOM before moving back inland over texas at hour 156 fwiw
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don
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Yep the GFS is still trying to develop that disturbance. Could be a heavy rain threat also.We'll have to watch the trends to see if more models get onboard or not.The ICON has the system also but its much further south.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_21.jpg
Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 11-25-15 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
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That 12z CMC run is beautiful!
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don
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👆
Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 12-27-15 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:53 pm 👆

Screenshot 2023-05-26 at 12-27-15 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Early June is wet on GFS and CMC and GEPS.

GFS attempts to form a Death Ridge about June 10. GEPS does not. We'll see.

I had to run the sprinklers today. I'm not happy about that. Around Tuesday and next weekend are our next best shot of rain in CLL.
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DoctorMu
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DP down to 56° up here in CLL. Looking forward to that walk/jog with our dog!

Yes - give this to me all summer!
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DoctorMu
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NWS moved rain chances up on Tuesday to 60%. More clouds and rain. Keep it coming.
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 4:26 pm DP down to 56° up here in CLL. Looking forward to that walk/jog with our dog!

Yes - give this to me all summer!
This would be so awesome.
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