June 2023

[tireman4]

Welcome to Sunmer. Wet? Dry? Hot?

[DoctorMu]

Can El Niño defeat the Death Ridge? That is the story of this summer.

It doesn't even have to rain that much. Just give me clouds! Every day until football season.

[Cpv17]

Can El Niño defeat the Death Ridge? That is the story of this summer.

It doesn't even have to rain that much. Just give me clouds! Every day until football season.

I’ve heard June is supposed to be pretty wet.

[tireman4]

And we start Meteorolgical Summer today....

[brazoriatx]

Happy hurricane season!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Mid/upper level ridging over the Southern Plains will help to keep
things mostly quiet across SE TX through the end of the work week.
With light onshore winds in place and the sea breeze, we could see
some isolated activity along/near the coast this afternoon...which
should end by sunset. Rain chances on Fri should be even less with
PWs progged to be even lower. Otherwise, look for warm(ing) summer
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 for today...
lower 90s tomorrow. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the
mid to upper 80s. As for the overnight lows, temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the area...mid 70s at
the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Mid and upper level ridging starts to flatten Saturday. Rain chances
should remain on the low side, but might need to keep an eye on
possible outflows from some storms in north Tx that could cause a
focusing mechanism for some afternoon activity around the Piney
Woods area.

Model consensus seems to indicate that another disturbance emerging
from northwest Texas late Saturday will eventually carve out a
weakness/low across the eastern half of the state...and meander
about the area for a good portion of next week. Corresponding rain
chances should increase beginning Sunday. Tough to highlight any
particular disturbances rotating about the low at this point, but
even absent of those we`ll probably see scattered storms develop on
a daily basis once convective temps are met. Forecast PW`s aren`t
overly impressive (roughly in the 1.5-1.9" range), but steering
flow will be weak and slow moving cells and/or outflow interactions
look like a decent bet at times. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

No major issues with this TAF package with a mid/upper ridge situ-
ated over the Southern Plains. Mostly VFR conditions will persist
with only the slightest of chances for rain this afternoon (along
the sea breeze). Not going to add any mention at this time. Light
S/SE winds this afternoon (5-10kts) should become more light/vari-
able tonight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

With a relatively loose pressure gradient in place, light winds and
low seas will prevail well into next week. A seabreeze/landbreeze
cycle should be evident and drive winds directions. Isolated to
scattered showers or storms are possible, with better chances
generally from Sunday into the middle of next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 87 77 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

Looking like june is going to be a quiet month in the tropics, dont really see any signs of potential development through at least the first half of june and maybe longer, i expect an average to below average season

[DoctorMu]

Sunday through Wednesday is our window for rain.

C'mon SJT, give it to us!

[Cpv17]

Looking like june is going to be a quiet month in the tropics, dont really see any signs of potential development through at least the first half of june and maybe longer, i expect an average to below average season

Head over to the tropics thread on Storm2k if you wanna read some good information about the tropics. Could be some wrenches being thrown in the mix.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 seems like the big talk over there right now is 91 L, im guessing a strengthing el nino is the wrench here with what kind of season it will be, guidance is anywhere from below nornal to decently above normal season, quite the spread