June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Welcome to Sunmer. Wet? Dry? Hot?
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DoctorMu
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Can El Niño defeat the Death Ridge? That is the story of this summer.

It doesn't even have to rain that much. Just give me clouds! Every day until football season. :lol:
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 12:00 pm Can El Niño defeat the Death Ridge? That is the story of this summer.

It doesn't even have to rain that much. Just give me clouds! Every day until football season. :lol:
I’ve heard June is supposed to be pretty wet.
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tireman4
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And we start Meteorolgical Summer today....
brazoriatx
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Happy hurricane season!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Mid/upper level ridging over the Southern Plains will help to keep
things mostly quiet across SE TX through the end of the work week.
With light onshore winds in place and the sea breeze, we could see
some isolated activity along/near the coast this afternoon...which
should end by sunset. Rain chances on Fri should be even less with
PWs progged to be even lower. Otherwise, look for warm(ing) summer
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 for today...
lower 90s tomorrow. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the
mid to upper 80s. As for the overnight lows, temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the area...mid 70s at
the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Mid and upper level ridging starts to flatten Saturday. Rain chances
should remain on the low side, but might need to keep an eye on
possible outflows from some storms in north Tx that could cause a
focusing mechanism for some afternoon activity around the Piney
Woods area.

Model consensus seems to indicate that another disturbance emerging
from northwest Texas late Saturday will eventually carve out a
weakness/low across the eastern half of the state...and meander
about the area for a good portion of next week. Corresponding rain
chances should increase beginning Sunday. Tough to highlight any
particular disturbances rotating about the low at this point, but
even absent of those we`ll probably see scattered storms develop on
a daily basis once convective temps are met. Forecast PW`s aren`t
overly impressive (roughly in the 1.5-1.9" range), but steering
flow will be weak and slow moving cells and/or outflow interactions
look like a decent bet at times. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

No major issues with this TAF package with a mid/upper ridge situ-
ated over the Southern Plains. Mostly VFR conditions will persist
with only the slightest of chances for rain this afternoon (along
the sea breeze). Not going to add any mention at this time. Light
S/SE winds this afternoon (5-10kts) should become more light/vari-
able tonight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

With a relatively loose pressure gradient in place, light winds and
low seas will prevail well into next week. A seabreeze/landbreeze
cycle should be evident and drive winds directions. Isolated to
scattered showers or storms are possible, with better chances
generally from Sunday into the middle of next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 87 77 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
Stratton20
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Looking like june is going to be a quiet month in the tropics, dont really see any signs of potential development through at least the first half of june and maybe longer, i expect an average to below average season
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DoctorMu
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Sunday through Wednesday is our window for rain.

C'mon SJT, give it to us!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:14 pm Looking like june is going to be a quiet month in the tropics, dont really see any signs of potential development through at least the first half of june and maybe longer, i expect an average to below average season
Head over to the tropics thread on Storm2k if you wanna read some good information about the tropics. Could be some wrenches being thrown in the mix.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 seems like the big talk over there right now is 91 L, im guessing a strengthing el nino is the wrench here with what kind of season it will be, guidance is anywhere from below nornal to decently above normal season, quite the spread
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. However,
cannot rule out brief, localized sub VFR conditions around
daybreak Friday morning. Best chance of less than VFR will be at
LBX and CXO. Winds will generally be from the southeast and
occasionally over 10 knots during the afternoon hours.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:34 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:14 pm Looking like june is going to be a quiet month in the tropics, dont really see any signs of potential development through at least the first half of june and maybe longer, i expect an average to below average season
Head over to the tropics thread on Storm2k if you wanna read some good information about the tropics. Could be some wrenches being thrown in the mix.
91L is heading south. Snoresville.
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91L_tracks_latest.png
Stratton20
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That is probably one of the weirdest tracks ive ever seen a tropical invest/disturbance take
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DoctorMu
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It won't last long, but we have Gainesville, FL kind of weather for the next week.

Enjoy it before The Big Suck begins!

Just 92 days to college football season...
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DoctorMu
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The Sunday - Wednesday rain chances are looking a little more weak sauce. At least it will be cloudy and the upper 80s.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

We begin June with toasty temps and cumulus filled skies. Cannot
rule out a few of those cumulus growing into an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. There have been a few specs on radar this afternoon.
But generally, increased mid/upper region is suppressing today`s
PoPs. So any rain will be limited to isolated shower/thunderstorm
activity. Any little showers or storms that do manage to form in
this suppressive environment will die off this evening. After
afternoon temps around 90F, expected overnight lows tonight to dip
into the upper-60s to low-70s. Areas near the coast and potentially
within Houston`s urban heat island will struggle to drop below the
mid-70s.

Tomorrow looks similar to today. Afternoon temperatures are expected
to be a degree or two warmer with most locations surpassing the 90
degree mark. And despite continued ridging, an isolated shower/storm
or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

In general, a fairly seasonable weekend and new week is ahead
with temperatures starting in the upper 60s and lower 70s, rising
to around 90 degrees in the afternoon, with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. However, there are some nuances to be
discussed that may modulate how busy particular days get as far as
thunderstorm development goes.

Starting on Saturday, we find ourselves looking at northwest flow
aloft as a weak mid-level ridge works by, and so we`ll have to
keep an eye out for incoming, weakening convection from the
northwest overnight into the early morning. I don`t anticipate too
much trouble, but given the weak synoptic forcing, some slight
chances of PoPs in the northern part of the area seem reasonable.

Going into Sunday and the first part of the work week, however,
there is increasing consensus that a weak mid-level low will spin
up over Texas. This looks like a barely there low forming in a
pretty stagnant upper air pattern, so I`m not looking for any sort
of big, organized development. However, this looks like we will
have several days with lower heights and cooler temperatures aloft
(some ensemble data suggests 500 mb temps could approach the 10th
percentile) and that could allow for higher coverage of showers
and storms than a typical June day.
I definitely go above climo on
PoPs Sunday Monday afternoon, then gradually step things down into
the midweek as uncertainty in the pattern increases.

For the mid and late week, the broad, multi-model consensus for
below normal heights aloft starts to wash out, and the primary
ensemble cluster is actually a little higher than the multi-model
mean. I don`t go fully dry here, but this does signal to me that
stepping PoPs back to around or even a little below climo is the
right move here. My high temps are a bit higher to go with that,
but not by very much. We`re just making small adjustments to the
dial here, not cranking things around.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. However,
cannot rule out brief, localized sub VFR conditions around
daybreak Friday morning. Best chance of less than VFR will be at
LBX and CXO. Winds will generally be from the southeast and
occasionally over 10 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Expectations for several days of typical early summer weather on
the waters continues. Without significant weather drivers, we`ll
look to persistent onshore flow, with adjustments by the daily
seabreeze/landbreeze cycle to prevail. With light to moderate
winds in place, expect seas of three feet or less throughout.
Isolated to scattered showers or storms are favored, typically
following the usual trend of occurring over the waters in the late
night and early morning, gradually pushing towards the bays and
inland towards mid-day and into the afternoon.

Mariners with interests in the eastern Gulf will want to keep up
to date on the latest information from the National Hurricane
Center regarding Invest 91L, an area of developing low pressure
off the coast of Florida. Regardless of any development with this
low pressure center, no impacts to local waters are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 72 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0
Cpv17
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Rain chances look pretty good Sunday through Thursday for Wharton County. About 40-60% each day.
Stratton20
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We officially have tropical depression #1 and soon to be Arliene, its that time again
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:54 pm We officially have tropical depression #1 and soon to be Arliene, its that time again
August should be an interesting month around here. I’m gonna go with 17/9/3 with my range being 15-19/7-10/3-4.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 agreed, my prediction is close to yours i have 16/9/4
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Ptarmigan
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I would not be surprised if we have Arlene come morning.
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