June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah just saw that, will be interesting, hopefully we dont get hit by a major hurricane , laura and delta were both way too close of a call
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I just noticed the 90-Day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has dropped down to -7.05 as of today. With this 90-Day value, we should be officially within El Niño range now.
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 12:00 pm Can El Niño defeat the Death Ridge? That is the story of this summer.

It doesn't even have to rain that much. Just give me clouds! Every day until football season.
Well, given the tendency for abundant antecedent fall-spring rainfall, El Nino summers tend not to be bad for heat waves. If the westerlies stay active, that can lead to bountiful rains across Texas. Similar to 2004, 2006, etc.

However, El Nino summers can feature potent dry spells/flash droughts (although, again, the heat isn't the worst) because they seem to trap the Hadley Cell further equatorward, creating a "bubble heat dome" pattern rather focused on Mexico that can extend drying into SW and South Central states — Larry Cosgrove mentioned this possibility regarding his 2009 summer analogue, and such dryness was seen during July of 2015 (before dissipating by August of that year).

La Nina summers can be brutal if theres bad luck with summer drought after a dry antecedent fall-spring. But La Nina tends allow more expansiveness/venturing of the ridge/heatdome across the US, such that it doesn't necessarily focus on Texas, meaning greater chances of easterly-driven tropical rains across the state.

So far on the models, the westerlies seem rather powerful, with rather deep troughs extending into meteorological summer. That bodes well so far.
Cpv17
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I would recommend watching this if you’re interested in hurricane season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvq2Ao9KgfU
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I love that channel, Mark Sudduth is awesome, definitely could be an interesting season down the road, maybe not you’re typical el nino hurricane season
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jasons2k
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Weather app shows 80% chance of rain today. NWS only 20%
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DoctorMu
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Opportunity knocks!!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Per the activity trying to move into the CWA tonight from the west,
the changes with the larger scale weather pattern appear to be set-
ting up a bit faster than previously expected. The mid/upper ridge
that has been over the region looks to be weak enough to allow for
the passage of shortwaves across the state.
While there is still a
bit of disagreement with the timing/track of these shortwaves, the
end result will be scattered POPs for today (well into the evening
hours tonight) with more coverage tomorrow (per progs of a strong-
er disturbance from the N/NW).


The increasing rain chances should lead to increasing clouds which
could help to shave a couple degrees off of forecasted high temper-
atures tomorrow...but highs today should run in the lower 90s over
much of the FA (mid 80s along the coast). Lows will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Mid level troffiness looks to linger about the region for most of
the work week which should allow for above normal chances of
showers and thunderstorms...particularly in the early and midweek
periods.
Pattern is such where confidence is fairly high in
regards to daily rain chances.
..but on the low end in regards to
the specific details and timing. Absent any MCS`s or somewhat
organized clusters of convection upstream, most should be
diurnally driven with better chances in the afternoon and evening
hours. That said, various model guidance does show the potential
for an MCS or two reaching the area
...in which case could alter
the more typical diurnal trend.

Heights should very slowly increase Thursday into Friday with some
ridging building into wcntl parts of Tx from Mexico.
Corresponding
rain chances will trend downward and temps upward once that
occurs. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Generally VFR cigs and vis expected through the TAF period. Some
hi-res guidance suggesting there could be some shra and tsra
activity this evening from the Houston area points north. Included
VCTS for CXO, CLL, and UTS. Kept IAH and HOU at VCSH. In areas
that receive rain, we cannot rule out sub VFR vis during the early
morning hours on Sunday. Chance of shra / tsra increases by
tomorrow afternoon. This is outside the TAF period for most
terminals. However, at IAH we have added VCTS for tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Light winds and low seas will persist well into next week. That
said mariners should keep up with the latest weather forecast and
conditions as shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday
into midweek. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 88 67 86 / 20 70 30 60
Houston (IAH) 71 90 70 88 / 30 80 30 70
Galveston (GLS) 76 87 75 85 / 10 50 10 50
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2023 2:34 pm Weather app shows 80% chance of rain today. NWS only 20%
40% on TWC app, 20% here on NWS

70% NWS prog for rain tomorrow. C'mon short waves!

80s Sunday through Wednesday before The Big Suck begins next weekend. I think the ridging heights would remain SW of us so that a sea breeze is possible the week after next.
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DoctorMu
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Now it's down to 50% tomorrow on the NWS forecast, but the iPhone has rain possible this evening and a 71% chance tomorrow. How it's 71% and not 70% is definitely unclear. :lol:

I decided to water, because if I didn't, we'd be guaranteed a bust tomorrow and Monday and the grass/shrubs would really dry out. I want everything saturated and/or moist ground when The Big Suck arrives.
Stratton20
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I see mid 90’s with this heat ridge but nothing well above normal, good news is it doesnt look to sit over the state for weeks
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DoctorMu
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nm
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:11 pm I see mid 90’s with this heat ridge but nothing well above normal, good news is it doesnt look to sit over the state for weeks
We have no evidence of that, just a guess based on previous El Ninos, which have a weak summer effect. Mid 90s is 4-5 degrees above normal for mid-June.

We'll see. fingers crossed for more westerlies, even NW flow.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu the Op GFS does break it down eventually, stronger than normal westerlies could provide more rain opportunities this summer but also could make this hurricane season interesting
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jasons2k
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Meh. My high today was already 99 🤷‍♂️

The rain cometh
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:05 pm DoctorMu the Op GFS does break it down eventually, stronger than normal westerlies could provide more rain opportunities this summer but also could make this hurricane season interesting
Assuming the SJT doesn't lift over the ridge, those westerlies would shear off the tops of tropical systems, making them weaksauce but good widespread rainmakers. I think that could be how we get the most rain between June 15 and late August in CLL. Houston could see seabreeze showers during the summer if the ridge center stays west or north.
Stratton20
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Levi Cowan came out with a fantastic hurricane video the other day, says their are some interesting and unusual factors that could lead to a busy season despite el nino strengthening, this may not be an ordinary el nino hurricane season
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DoctorMu
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The shear would affect the strength of tropical systems and hurricane wind speed more than the number of tropical systems. I would expect another busy season.
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don
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Storms developing.
caynvas.png
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DoctorMu
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I usually expect these to fall apart. But no outflow detected and the cell is about 10 miles NW of here. It could be a gully washer. Maybe some small hail.

: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1100 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bryan
Utilities Lake, or near Bryan, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle Field, Bryan
Utilities Lake and Wellborn.
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Brazos
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DoctorMu
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There's some outflow - about 45 mph gusts.
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