June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:22 am Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
It’ll be about 105 to 107 at your place lol
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:55 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:22 am Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
It’ll be about 105 to 107 at your place lol
I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m glad we have house sitters to water while I’m gone.
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jasons2k
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NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
Not nearly as good of a chance today compared to yesterday.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
This has been coming for some time. The westerlies and any trace of the SJT are going to lift with the gap being occupied by the Death Ridge. Time varies...but can occur in June, getting locked in during July and August.

Unfortunately, El Niño done gone El Nunya.

I just looked at St. Augustine weather. It looks perfect for beach R&R.
Stratton20
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With this kind of ridge its going to take a tropical system to break it down, the GFS ans GEFS are signaling that something may try to brew in the caribbean around the 19th, but thats a story for another day, this heat ridge is going to SUCK
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
It’s still the summer season. Why not simply go with “unusually hot” versus “unseasonably hot”?

Anyway I, for one, expect decent coverage later this afternoon. Nice cumulus field without overcast.
Cromagnum
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Had a nice cell bearing down, but like clockwork, there goes the damned outflow ahead of it to shut it all down.
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jasons2k
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Radar and satellite showing stuff popping to my east and ESE. Good trends so far.
Cromagnum
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Yep. 100% miss again. The cells divided, went around, and now are reforming west of me. Driveway didn't even get wet.
Stratton20
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meh nothing burger here
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Starting to see inland showers developing with heating. Expecting
to see scattered TSRA develop in the next couple of hours around
HOU, SGR, and LBX. Further inland, expecting isolated TSRA
21Z-00Z.

May see a few areas with MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
tomorrow. But, confidence is low on that, so am forecasting SCT
around 1500 for this late night strato cu. Expecting to see some
MVFR BR late tonight.

Less TSRA coverage is expected tomorrow, amd likely to be limited
to just the aft hours.
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jasons2k
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Ugh the cluster of TCu and Cb to my immediate east collapsed. Hopefully the residual outlfow doesn’t screw up the rest of the afternoon.
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:11 pm meh nothing burger here
You are further from the sea breeze. Too early to make that call for C/BS area. You have a few more hours of watching remaining.
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jasons2k
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Temp rebounding. New outflows to the south and east forming. There is still hope for a 2nd attempt:
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don
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It's pouring over here.
Stratton20
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jasons2k oh im in katy for the summer, visiting parents
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jasons2k
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Outflow passing. Now or never for today.
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