June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 6:43 pm Tomorrow looks interesting. Could see some pretty big storms across the area.
More organized severe thunderstorms are not typical in the summer, outside of summer thunderstorms that pop up.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 8:19 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:38 pm We just saw a teeny tiny sun shower. We'll take what we can get.
Better chance tomorrow.
I hope so. An MCS would be lovely. Even some wind, small hail would be worth it.
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DoctorMu
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By June 20 - the Death Ridge begins to wane a bit.

So, sure... why not, GFS fantasy run?!

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Stratton20
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DoctorMu its been showing some wacky system the past 3-4 days, gotta love the good old GFS, looks like it found the whisky cabinet again !
Cromagnum
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Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.
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don
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spchd1cat.us_sc.png
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The most concentrated potential for severe thunderstorms today
appears to be from portions of central Texas southeastward to the
mid/upper Texas Coast.

...Synopsis...
A blocky large-scale pattern will persist in mid/upper levels,
characterized broadly by ridging over the central CONUS, a large
cyclone covering much of the East, and a much weaker but still broad
cyclone over parts of the western Great Basin, CA and interior
Northwest. As these features will move little through the period,
shortwave details -- some rather subtle -- will be the main
influences aloft. A longstanding height weakness -- extending from
the Great Basin cyclone across the northern/central Rockies, through
the mean ridge to troughing over the Gulf -- will persist, but
weaken somewhat. However, an embedded shortwave trough, with a
convectively enhanced vorticity field, was apparent in moisture-
channel imagery over west-central TX. This perturbation is forecast
to pivot southeastward to the mid/upper TX Coast by 00Z, before
moving offshore over the northwestern Gulf.

Elsewhere, a series of low-amplitude shortwave perturbations and
related vorticity lobes will pivot across the Ohio Valley and
central/southern Appalachians, around the southwestern quadrant of
the cyclone centered over new England. Similarly, but in a much
weaker height gradient, small perturbations will inhabit the
cyclonic-flow field across the Great Basin, ID and parts of
OR/WA/western MT.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy cold front, accompanied
by several weak lows, from southeastern VA across eastern NC to
central SC, central AL, and northern MS, becoming quasistationary
across the Ozarks and up the Missouri Valley around MCI-FSD, to near
ABR and DVL. This boundary should move slowly southward from AR
eastward, while remaining quasistationary north of the Ozarks.

...Portions of central/south TX...
Scattered thunderstorms should form this afternoon over the
east-central hill Country region or near I-35 and move southeastward
over mainly the middle coastal plain, offering large hail and
occasional strong-severe gusts. Hail potential will be skewed
somewhat westward in the process, where somewhat discrete mix of
multicells and at least transient supercells is possible. As
activity aggregates and shifts southeastward toward the coast, wind
will become the main concern, with hail still possible. Brief/
isolated significant (2+ inch) hail may occur over western parts of
the outlook area, but that threat appears too marginal and uncertain
for an unconditional sig-hail area at this time.

Following the exit of a morning MCS from the lower Rio Grande Valley
region to the Gulf, considerable trailing clouds and occasional
precip will delay and reduce diurnal destabilization in the trailing
outflow pool. However, in the relatively unaffected air mass from
central TX to the mid/upper TX Coast, high theta-e is forecast to
remain, with surface dewpoints commonly near 70 F below the Balcones
Escarpment. An outflow boundary from earlier/dissipated
thunderstorms -- now near the I-35 corridor between SAT-TPL but also
weakening -- should decelerate and could focus later development or
intensification. Other convection may form in diurnally
heated/modified air behind the boundary, above the escarpment, and
closer to the pocket of large-scale ascent immediately preceding the
vorticity lobe. Resulting convection should move southeastward and
expand in scale through the afternoon, taking advantage of a
strongly heated/mixed inflow layer supporting MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg.
Though low-level winds/shear will be weak, favorable deep shear is
expected, with effective-shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt probable.
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:26 am Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.
News channels have been mentioning it since Tuesday and the SPC as well. It’s also been popping up on the mesoscale models.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:37 am
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 8:26 am Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.
News channels have been mentioning it since Tuesday and the SPC as well. It’s also been popping up on the mesoscale models.
NWS raised my rain chances from 20% to 50% in the overnight package. That’s encouraging.
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tireman4
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We better take what we can get. After today, it is lights out for significant rain chances



000
FXUS64 KHGX 081125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A challenge in the forecast today as we watch thunderstorms far to
our west. Even if these storms do not reach us, their outflow
could provide the trigger for storms later today, in an
environment that appears to be a little more conducive for
strong/severe storms than typical for this time of year. We are
currently have a marginal risk of severe weather today (Level 1
of 5), with potential that some of that area could rise to a
slight risk (Level 2 of 5). If there are any severe storms,
damaging straight-line winds would be the primary hazard.

Looking into next week, high confidence in a stretch of
unseasonably hot stretch next week remains, while just how hot it
looks to get remain among the details to be refined. We`ll be
looking strongly at the potential for our first 95 degree days of
the year (looks likely across the area!). Things like 100 degree
days and heat advisories for heat index values reaching 108
degrees are still on the table - particularly later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A rather complex atmospheric setup has been bestowed upon southeast
Texas today. Mid/upper subtropical ridge will build further north
over Texas. However, there will only be a modest increase in
mid/upper level pressure heights. In addition, NW flow aloft will be
increasing as the aforementioned increased ridging tightens the
mid/upper level pressure gradient resulting in about 20-30 knots of
0-6KM bulk shear. Instability will also be plentiful in part thanks
to the heat and humidity that will greet you when you step outside
today. Widespread afternoon highs in the low-90s with dew points
around 70F are expected. This will translate to heat index values in
the upper-90s for many locations. Going back to the instability,
HREF MUCAPE ensemble means are showing widespread values of 2000-
2500 J/kg with forecast soundings showing potential for CAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg. We also will have to contend with the prospect
of low-level mesoscale boundaries thanks to the sea breeze as well
as potential outflow boundaries from overnight MCS`s in central and
southern Texas. All these aforementioned factors are leading to an
increasing chance of thunderstorms, especially this afternoon. PoPs
for most of the CWA have been increased to the 40-50 percent range.
Given the high instability and sufficient shear, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center
currently has most of our region in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for
severe thunderstorms. It is not out of the question that they could
upgrade the risk to a 2 out of 5 for portions of the CWA. The
primary concern will be damaging winds gusts. Worth mentioning that
this complex setup results in some heightened uncertainty. This can
be seen via the wide ranging solutions of the current CAMs. Most of
the CAMs are indicating convective development over our CWA. It`s
the exact location of these thunderstorms that one will see the most
disagreement in the convection model guidance.

Ridging will build even more on Friday resulting in lower PoPs and
higher temps. Still, some weak shortwave action embedded in the
synoptic flow could spark off a few isolated thunderstorms. But the
bigger story will be the temperatures. Friday`s highs are expected
to average in the mid-90s. Couldn`t rule out a few locations
reaching the upper-90s. Upper-80s to low-90s are expected near the
beaches. Once the humidity is factored into the equation, many of
you will have heat index values reaching the low-100s. Tis the
season to drink plenty of water! If you do not need to be outside,
stay indoors during the hottest hours of the day. Remember to LOOK
before you LOCK. Also, if you think it is hot outside then so do
your pets!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

I have precisely one (1) day with PoPs that rise into at least the
slight chance category, and that is right on the front end on
Saturday. Ridging will be coming to command the region, but not
before we squeeze one more day with isolated to scattered showers
and storms out. With the beefy, subtropical ridge building in from
the southwest, it`s surely no surprise that the best rain chances
will be to the northeast, generally beyond Lake Livingston and
towards the Pineywoods, were PoPs peak out at 30-40 percent.
Things dip down to around 20 percent near the I-45 corridor, and
dwindle to 5 percent or less pretty quickly once you head
southwest of the Colorado River. The last lingering storms should
wrap up in the early evening, mainly north of Houston.

Okay, with that first day out of the way, let`s focus on the real
star of the long term forecast, the heat. Our big ensemble systems
remain highly confident in unseasonably hot temps, using 850 mb
temperatures as a proxy signal. Both the NAEFS and EPS ensemble
mean 850 temps begin to exceed the 90th percentile as early as
Saturday afternoon, and just crank up into the new week. 97th
percentile temps show up on Sunday, and 99th percentile temps
arrive Monday. By mid-week, 850 temps exceeding the 99th
percentile are widespread, and the hot spots begin to max out the
climo. The Euro ensemble mean goes so far as to suggest record
850 temps area-wide later next week, with the only saving grace
being that this occurs overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Now, this is all very interesting, but other than perhaps
reinforcing the high confidence in some hot days ahead, it doesn`t
reveal a whole lot of new information we weren`t looking at the
past couple of nights. Where the uncertainty comes in, as it so
often does, is how this hot 850 mb temperature translates to
surface temperatures, where we`re living. And, unfortunately, I
don`t necessarily have a lot to report there. The EPS Extreme
Forecast Index is really suggesting higher confidence in extreme
heat well to our west, but remains coy in our area. The EFI for
max temps through next Wednesday flit above 0.5 in isolated spots,
but there`s not really a strong signal here. Ensemble cluster
analysis of max temps suggests that there is not a lot of
variation from the multi-model mean in the most prominent
scenarios. If anything, there may be a little bust potential for
things to come in a bit cooler than progged, but the difference
here is still small and probably too much of a stretch to do
anything but plant some anxiety about my forecast.

All in all, this idea of having unseasonably hot temperatures but
with a signal for extreme heat relatively lacking, I`m comfortable
mostly running with a blend of the deterministic NBM and the NBM
median for temps, to give me a slight hedge towards heat.
Widespread inland highs in the middle to upper 90s are here as
early as Sunday, and especially Tuesday through Thursday. As we
push into the back half of the week, upper 90s become the norm
inland, while highs reaching 100 degrees begin to emerge. Of
course, onshore flow helps keep things slightly cooler at the
coast, but even there, look for highs around and above 90 degrees.

Taking a look at the NBM distribution, 90 degree highs are
basically certain except right on the Gulf the whole period. This
is not really a surprise, as this time of year, a 90 degree high
is right around average, give or take a degree or two. Stepping it
up to triple digits, and we see some more nuance. The probability
of reaching 100 degrees starts to sneak in from the west as early
as even Saturday - those that have the least chance for rain could
see their odds of hitting the century mark up as high as 8-12
percent. The first isolated spots of 50 percent probability show
up Monday, mainly around the Brazos Valley in our climatological
hot spot west of the Houston metro.

Things get more interesting later in the week, as the
probabilities for hitting 100 continue to increase. The absolute
numbers seem to top out around 75 percent in the second half of
the week, but the area of 50 percent or higher probability grows
to cover nearly all of the area from I-10 northward. With a large
swath of our forecast area seeing a 50-75 percent chance of
reaching 100 degrees at their specific point, I`ve got to think we
are basically certain to see someone, somewhere in the area make
the mark later next week. To get otherwise would require a whole
lot of coin flips going in one particular way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The primary aviation weather concern today will be the chance of
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe.
Strong winds are the primary concern with these thunderstorms. We
are hinting at the possibility of strong thunderstorm winds with
the PROB30 VRB20G30KT TSRA that has been added to most of the
TAFs. Some uncertainty regarding the timing of the best chance of
TS. Cannot rule out patchy areas of fog overnight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Generally light, westerly to southwesterly winds are expected today,
shifting to southerly and strengthening to become more moderate to
late Friday into the weekend. To go along with that, seas will be
pretty flat to begin with and gradually make their way up to a 2
to 4 foot range. Moderate to gusty south winds should prevail in
the first half of next week, and look to increase enough that we
will have to evaluate the need for caution flags and perhaps even
a brief small craft advisory at times next week.

Rain chances dwindle this weekend, with scattered shower and
storm coverage today decreasing each day into the weekend. From
then on, dry weather prevails deep into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 69 95 73 / 50 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 72 95 72 / 50 30 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 77 90 79 / 40 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
Cromagnum
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I hope I cash in today then. We missed completely the last two days.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff earlier:
A chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon over the region.

An upper level disturbance within the northwest flow on the outer edge of a building ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will move across SE TX this afternoon and evening. Given surface heating and temperatures rising into the low 90’s by mid afternoon combined with lift from the approaching disturbance and decent moisture, clusters of showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. Profiles support a strong/damaging wind threat with some of these storms depending on how organized they become. Cluster/line of storms will likely develop in the College Station to San Antonio corridor by mid afternoon and track SE toward the coast into the evening hours. Where this activity encounters the inland moving Seabreeze front some enhancement of storms will be possible. SPC has portions of the area in a 2 out of 5 risk level for damaging winds this afternoon and evening.

Ridge attempts to build into the area this weekend, but another disturbance in the NW flow looks to clip the area on Saturday and again may result or enhance some thunderstorms activity.

There after…high pressure become established into next week with gradually increasing high temperatures and heat index values…guidance progs heat index values near advisory criteria by next Thursday and Friday.

Tropics:
Nothing of interest in the Atlantic basin through the next 7 days. GFS continues to forecast a hurricane from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico the week of the 19th…it is the only model that is showing this (CMC and ECWMF do not show anything of significance in the western Caribbean during this period). I certainly question if the GFS has the correct upper air pattern in place since both the CMC and ECMWF have 30-40kts of wind shear over the western Caribbean Sea during this period. I normally would not mention such “long range” model speculation…but there are questions…simply put… I do not believe the GFS and this model has a tendency of developing western Caribbean tropical systems that never happen.

Severe Weather Outlook (This afternoon/Evening):

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jasons2k
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Side note, what’s going on Ukraine is absolutely horrible.
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don
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Storms starting to develop in the Hill Country.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 081917
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
217 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Just ahead of the mid/upper disturbance approaching from the west,
we are seeing scattered strong thunderstorms developing. As the
disturbance moves across later this aft and eve, the atmosphere will
further destabilize which will set the stage for at least isolated
severe thunderstorms, especially near and west of I-45. Expecting
thunderstorms to dissipate mid-eve in the 8-10pm window.

Will see less thunderstorm activity tomorrow aft with more
subsidence to overcome and the lack of a mid/upper level
disturbance. Daytime heating will likely produce isolated convection
mid-late aft across the eastern half of the area. It will be warmer
tomorrow, with max temps reaching the mid 90s for inland areas.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

On Saturday, an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains should
flatten as a midlevel shortwave slides across the state. Forecast
soundings show weak capping and elevated instability, particularly
during the afternoon/evening hours. While the main shortwave trough
is expected to move through northern TX/Oklahoma, weaker impulses
sliding through the ridge could be sufficient to overcome the cap,
bringing isolated to scatted storms. This environment will also
features steep lapse rates (in excess of 7 Deg C/km), high
instability (MU CAPE > 2500 J/kg) and low shear (0-6km shear near 24
knots). SPC currently has areas north of I-10 under a marginal
(level 1/5) risk of severe weather, with the northern fringes of our
CWA under a slight (level 2/5) risk. Steep low level lapse rates and
inverted V-esq forecast soundings suggest that the primary hazard
will be damaging winds, though hail cannot be completely ruled out
either.

Sunday and onwards looks relatively unchanged. Ridging rebuilds
across the Southern Plains, with increasing subsidence aiming to
suppress rain chances through the rest of the forecast period. A
pseudo omega pattern very briefly develops across the CONUS Sunday
night, with this features later drifting E/ENE in the days
following. While the upper level flow over Texas becomes more zonal,
the subtropical ridge over Mexico should persist. 500mb heights will
remain near 591 dam for most of next week. 850mb temperatures also
rise to around 21-25C by Wednesday, with NAEFS Mean 850mb
temperatures still expected to exceed the 99th throughout most of
the work week. 850mb winds also veer southwesterly for Wednesday
afternoon, which may further enhance heating.

The main takeaway is that next week will be very hot. Daytime highs
will threaten to break triple digits with peak heat indicies likely
exceeding 105F. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is anticipating
a heat wave spanning across parts of the South-central and
Southeastern CONUS, placing these areas under a Moderate (level 2/3)
risk of Excessive Heat throughout the upcoming work week. Those with
outdoor plans should be wary of the temperatures and practice heat
safety. Stay hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activities
whenever possible.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Starting to see thunderstorms develop between UTS and CLL. The
atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon, so expecting
at least SCT TSRA in a couple of hours, some strong and/or severe
TSRA are possible, especially near CLL. Will have a TEMPO to TSRA
this aft for inland TAF sites. Convection will propagate to the
SE and last until early eve.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Light, sea breeze-land breeze driven winds and low seas will prevail
through tonight. Winds become W/SW on Friday, shifting S/SE and
strengthening over the weekend while seas gradually rise to 3 to 4
feet. Rain chances dwindle on Sunday with dry weather prevailing
into next week.

03


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 95 73 96 / 20 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 72 95 73 95 / 20 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 89 80 88 / 20 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...03
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DoctorMu
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Potential incoming on the NW flow.

Give it to me one more (last) time...

https://youtu.be/C-u5WLJ9Yk4
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DoctorMu
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It looks like it's raining hard, including here at A&M...but there's a bubble wall near home. Just sprinkling there.
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jasons2k
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I think we need another watch box further north and east of the current watch box out west. Storms north and west of here looking impressive.
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don
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DoctorMu
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It's coming down at a 1-2 inch/hr rate now. Allegedly rain occurring at home.
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DoctorMu
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.
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