Yeah you pretty much called it. Figures.
Hopefully it rains here soon cuz we haven’t had anything here in about 3 weeks.
June 2023
Hopefully it rains here soon cuz we haven’t had anything here in about 3 weeks.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge
2.15” from last night.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4480
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 051137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
While activity has been limited over SE TX so far overnight, there
have been isolated pop ups near the coast...along with some widely
scattered development trying to move in from the west. This fairly
quiet overnight/early morning does lend to the possibility of more
active widespread weather this afternoon (i.e. air mass not scour-
ed out). And as such, short term models are indicating decent con-
vective coverage starting late this morning on into this afternoon
with the best/higher POPs closer to the coast. Storms are expected
to decrease by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Wash
rinse and repeat for tomorrow as all the larger scale features re-
main in place. Highs to range from the mid to upper 80s for today/
tomorrow...with lows in the 60s to around 70. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Somewhat active wx pattern should settle down a bit as we head
into the second half of the work week as the stubborn upper trof
axis is nudged eastward by some ridging to our west. Though rain
chances won`t exactly go away, increasing heights & subsidence
should make things a bit more difficult to initiate. That said,
we`ll also remain in a northwest flow aloft into the weekend and
subject to any disturbances that might be embedded in it...any/all
of which can`t be accurately forecast at this juncture. As such,
will keep slight chance POPs in the fcst as a place holder.
Another thing of note will be the increasing temps. With forecast
surface ridging setting up in the nw Gulf (and eventually ncntl
Gulf), we`ll likely have a sw component in the llvl flow...which
is typically favorable for some hot temps. Not heat advsy hot, but
readings topping out in the mid 90s aren`t out of the question
late in the week. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Scattered activity is starting to develop and move into the northern
parts of the CWA this morning. But, will expect this round of storms
to dissipate by mid to late morning. Lingering boundaries from these
storms along with daytime heating and the seabreeze could make for a
challenging day in terms of convection. Did keep with the mention of
just VCTS for most terminals for this afternoon at this time...fully
expecting TEMPO groups later as development begins (again)/expands.
Activity should decrease by this evening (as per the loss of daytime
heating). Some patchy fog possible overnight (depending on where the
heavier rains fall) with a repeat of this pattern rainy tomorrow. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Expect periods of unsettled weather into midweek as some upper level
disturbances pass overhead. Outside of any showers or thunderstorms,
light winds and low seas should persist. Wind directions should
generally follow a landbreeze/seabreeze cycle, then a slightly
more prevalent sw/s flow toward the end of the week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 66 86 68 / 30 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 88 69 87 69 / 70 20 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 76 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 051137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
While activity has been limited over SE TX so far overnight, there
have been isolated pop ups near the coast...along with some widely
scattered development trying to move in from the west. This fairly
quiet overnight/early morning does lend to the possibility of more
active widespread weather this afternoon (i.e. air mass not scour-
ed out). And as such, short term models are indicating decent con-
vective coverage starting late this morning on into this afternoon
with the best/higher POPs closer to the coast. Storms are expected
to decrease by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Wash
rinse and repeat for tomorrow as all the larger scale features re-
main in place. Highs to range from the mid to upper 80s for today/
tomorrow...with lows in the 60s to around 70. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Somewhat active wx pattern should settle down a bit as we head
into the second half of the work week as the stubborn upper trof
axis is nudged eastward by some ridging to our west. Though rain
chances won`t exactly go away, increasing heights & subsidence
should make things a bit more difficult to initiate. That said,
we`ll also remain in a northwest flow aloft into the weekend and
subject to any disturbances that might be embedded in it...any/all
of which can`t be accurately forecast at this juncture. As such,
will keep slight chance POPs in the fcst as a place holder.
Another thing of note will be the increasing temps. With forecast
surface ridging setting up in the nw Gulf (and eventually ncntl
Gulf), we`ll likely have a sw component in the llvl flow...which
is typically favorable for some hot temps. Not heat advsy hot, but
readings topping out in the mid 90s aren`t out of the question
late in the week. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Scattered activity is starting to develop and move into the northern
parts of the CWA this morning. But, will expect this round of storms
to dissipate by mid to late morning. Lingering boundaries from these
storms along with daytime heating and the seabreeze could make for a
challenging day in terms of convection. Did keep with the mention of
just VCTS for most terminals for this afternoon at this time...fully
expecting TEMPO groups later as development begins (again)/expands.
Activity should decrease by this evening (as per the loss of daytime
heating). Some patchy fog possible overnight (depending on where the
heavier rains fall) with a repeat of this pattern rainy tomorrow. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Expect periods of unsettled weather into midweek as some upper level
disturbances pass overhead. Outside of any showers or thunderstorms,
light winds and low seas should persist. Wind directions should
generally follow a landbreeze/seabreeze cycle, then a slightly
more prevalent sw/s flow toward the end of the week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 66 86 68 / 30 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 88 69 87 69 / 70 20 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 76 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47
Will the eruption of the volcano near Mexico City
Affect our weather or possibly flights?
Affect our weather or possibly flights?
Color me unimpressed with the current radar presentation. Nothing but small isolated popups. Doesn’t seem to be enough sun out today to destabilize the atmosphere. At least not here. Lots of overcast skies. I’m down in Bay City right now, though. Maybe it’s different elsewhere.
The two subsequent runs were even more brutal (at least, regarding temps across the state). But the 12z, as of now, has toned things down quite a bit.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 04, 2023 10:26 pm Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge
Also, the heat ridge evolution in both the 6z and 12z today were more ideal: it shifts north enough to put Texas/Southern US in easterlies. More of that please.
Dark every direction but nothing at the casa.
In the proverbial donut hole.
Absolutely. Pitch black all around me and just sprinkles at my house. Pouring to my southwest and moving away. It better fill in to the northeast so I can get something more than a lightning show.
Ha.
Great album…
Hopefully you and cp17 like this.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 04, 2023 10:26 pm Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 71395?s=20
And now a big storm north of me that's going to miss west. I give e up.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
user:null so does this mean the model’s may be incorrect about where they have the placement of the heat ridge? Interesting to see that post
It looks like it’s raining pretty good at my house. Will check the rain gauge when I get home.
It could possibly the case, which would be better for us w/respect to less heat and more rain chances.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:56 pmuser:null so does this mean the model’s may be incorrect about where they have the placement of the heat ridge? Interesting to see that post
The main wrinkle is that the Canadian ridging seems more to be blocking patterns within the westerlies, whereas the coming Texas heat ridge might be tropical circulation (read: Hadley Cell) induced.
We'll have to see. In the mean time, several areas across Houston have been getting some real soaking rains so far.
Same here. Total dud. Lots of bark but no bite. The line exploded the second it pushed by me.