June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 6:01 pm Man that noaa outlook is looking great! Though im not seeing a while lot in model guidance thats showing a really wet pattern
It still looks really hot but if we can get some scattered storms then I’m okay with it.
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:25 pm I thought this would be cool to share with yall, just got done with a tour in the cave of the winds, it you haven’t been here before you should!
Its amazing how much weather had an influence in shaping these caverns
I have been to Mammoth Cave. It is the longest know cave in the world.
Cpv17
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This has to be about the hottest June on record.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.

Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
Last June was hotter in CLL, but the DP was not as high as this year.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 7:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.

Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
Higher heat indexes this year vs. last year or 2011 - We neared 120° in the heat index over a few days this year. However, we've reached 100°F only 3-4 times, including today. Some good news - we're at a 69°F DP late this afternoon and it didn't feel quite as bad.

Looks like some dry admixture tomorrow, before returning to the low 70s Thursday on DPs.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
davidiowx
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:21 pm
davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 7:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.

Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
Higher heat indexes - we neared 120° in the heat index over a few days, however, we've reached 100°F only 3-4 times, including today. However, we're at a 69°F DP late this afternoon and it didn't feel quite as bad.
Very true. I walked out to water the plants around 6:30ish and thought, dang… it’s hot but doesn’t feel near as bad as last week. Pretty crazy considering it’s still just as hot lol. DPs in the 80s with 100 degree temps is miserable for everyone.
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DoctorMu
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YES. For slightly drier air. lol

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

No relief from the heat is expected during the short term period. A
dome of high pressure at mid to upper levels will prevail over the
Southern Plains/Texas, with the center of this high slowly moving
overhead later tonight into Wednesday. Therefore, this hot weather
will continue. Wednesday`s highs will generally run similar to today
with readings from the upper 90 to 101°F. Sfc high pressure centered
across the northern Gulf will continue to bring a southerly warm and
humid airmass into the region, allowing for dew points to climb into
the mid to upper 70s. The combination of hot air temperatures and
humidity will lead to dangerous heat indices from 103 to 113°F.
However, it looks like dewpoints will once again mix out by
Wednesday afternoon thanks to the drier airmass aloft. This could
inhibit a widespread area of heat indices greater than 113°F during
the peak daytime heating.
Having said that, have continued/extended
the Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area and is now in effect
until 9PM Wednesday.

Warm and muggy nights with mostly cloudy skies can be anticipated.
Low clouds/stratus and patchy fog are expected to develop across
portions of the region overnight through early morning. Overnight
lows will range from the upper 70s (inland) to low 80s (Houston
metro area and coastal zones).

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Hot/dry weather is expected to remain in place across SE TX through
the end of the week through the start of the weekend per the strong
mid/upper ridge lingering over the region. Closer to the surface, a
broad high pressure system that has been centered around the north/
central Gulf is progged to become a bit more diffuse by the weekend.

This should translate to slightly lower daytime temperatures as the
work week comes to an end (i.e. highs from 99-101F on Thurs/Fri vs.
97-99F by the weekend for inland locations along and north of I-10).

But that being said, Heat Advisories are going to remain likely for
parts of the long term forecast. Heat index values could exceed 110
through this time frame.

Models are continuing to indicate that changes with this pattern are
on tap over the weekend as the ridge aloft begins to weaken/shift to
the east with time. This should allow for increasing rain chances as
we head into the start of next week.
!!! Sunday could see isolated main-
ly afternoon activity with isolated to scattered mostly daytime POPs
possible Mon/Tues. Temperatures could also decrease some, but remain
slightly above normal (mid to upper 90s). 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

South-southwesterly winds generally near 6 to 10kts will persist
through the period. There may be a few gusts to 15kts late this
evening and then around sunrise on Wednesday. Like last night,
there will be a few hours of MVFR conditions with ceilings between
1500-2500ft between 8-14z. These clouds will scatter out after
sunrise bringing VFR conditions back to the area that will persist
through the rest of the day.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Little to no change with this current pattern is expected through the
rest of the week as generally moderate onshore winds persist over our
marine waters. Wind speeds could briefly strengthen at times with Ad-
visory and/or Caution flags needed. Otherwise, rain chances will stay
low to nil through the weekend, with slightly more active chances for
thunderstorms returning by the beginning of next week. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0

&&
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
Top 10 Junes
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_top10_jun

The hottest June on record was June 2022.
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Ptarmigan
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davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 7:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.

Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
Summer 2011 was hot and dry. 2011 was a very dry year.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:32 pm
davidiowx wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 7:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.

Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
Summer 2011 was hot and dry. 2011 was a very dry year.
I lost half of our trees.

I think there was NW flow for most of the summer. DPs during many days were in the lower 60s, even upper 50s. The ground became completely desiccated - no natural water even 6-8 inches deep.

That reminds me to begin 2X week tree watering above the sprinkler system. The new Sta-Green MAX, high nitrogen with 6% iron (instead of 2%) is like Gold, or Green for the lawn. I have vitamins and nitrogen feedings set up for the trees until the rains start during football season.
Cpv17
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Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:29 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
Top 10 Junes
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_top10_jun

The hottest June on record was June 2022.
Feels hotter this year cuz of the higher dew points.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:41 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:29 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm This has to be about the hottest June on record.
Top 10 Junes
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_top10_jun

The hottest June on record was June 2022.
Feels hotter this year cuz of the higher dew points.
The higher dew points keeps the low temperature high. One reason why it was warm.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:42 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:41 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:29 pm

Top 10 Junes
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_top10_jun

The hottest June on record was June 2022.
Feels hotter this year cuz of the higher dew points.
The higher dew points keeps the low temperature high. One reason why it was warm.
But if there's enough radiant heat from the sun, and short nights the lows also can be high.

For example, on Jun 19, 2011, the high in CLL was 102°F and the low was 81°F. The lowest DP was 60°F and the highest DP of 70°F.

In Phoenix on June 23 of this year the high was 101°F and the low was 79°F. The DP ranged from 13°F to 30°F.
Cromagnum
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Summer of 2013 sucked too.
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DoctorMu
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8-14 day outlook is still very hot, but at least a chance of rain.
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Stratton20
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The gfs continues to try to spin up a weak low and move it into Louisiana at hour 162, hope that doesn’t verify as that would robe se texas of rain/ moisture
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:53 pm The gfs continues to try to spin up a weak low and move it into Louisiana at hour 162, hope that doesn’t verify as that would robe se texas of rain/ moisture
Check out the GEFS though. Lots of rain just hugging the Texas coastline. At least on the 12z.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 saw that, kinda weird thats an ensemble shows that much rain and its all over the gulf, but thats also interesting because it could mean an opportunity for a weak system or two potentially, euther way, its definitely looking at least a little bit better for rain
davidiowx
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I’d just be happy with some cloud cover at this point. It’s 91 degrees outside at 8pm. Doesn’t feel near as bad as a week+ ago, but my plants are feeling the sun beat down for sure
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