June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 04, 2023 10:26 pm Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge☠️☠️
Hopefully you and cp17 like this.
https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 71395?s=20
Go North young ridge!
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DoctorMu
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We finally received some light rain.

If only this could continue all summer! Classic southeast coast summer weather. Temp. rises to 90°. Breaks the cap and easterlies bring in moisture. Scattered showers, clouds all afternoon. Sprinklers off. A/C on stun.
Cpv17
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Finally got some rain here. Picked up 1.20”. Another chance tomorrow.
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DoctorMu
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More rain chances tonight and tomorrow, but are disappearing fast. By Wednesday the heat blasters begin to warm up.
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DoctorMu
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GFS hints as some ridging competition with Canada. CMC, not so much.

Image

The Ensembles are on board as well. Mid June is going to suck.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:55 pm And now a big storm north of me that's going to miss west. I give e up.
It never rains at your place. You have the worst luck out of anyone on this board.
Stratton20
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I see some 100’s showing up on the latest runs in se texas, big time suck is coming🤢☠️☠️ better get those sprinklers ready folks
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Ptarmigan
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I hope there is no hot weather.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:26 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:55 pm And now a big storm north of me that's going to miss west. I give e up.
It never rains at your place. You have the worst luck out of anyone on this board.
I've often wondered about it. There is mostly rice, milo, and corn fields around us. Just flat. No reason for storms to be affected by anything.
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tireman4
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It is going to get hot...sigh..


00
FXUS64 KHGX 061138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

With the help of the locally heavy rains yesterday, patchy areas of
dense fog have developed across parts of the CWA overnight...and is
likely going to persist through mid morning or so. Over the coastal
waters, activity has already started and is progged to continue and
expand just offshore through the rest of this morning. And so...the
concern with this is that the associated clouds could help to limit
heating and hold the potential inland to a later start by this aft-
ernoon. But that being said, we should see another round of showers
and thunderstorms today given the proximity of the mid/upper trough
axis/low and weak shortwave energy from the NW flow aloft. Activity
will be on the decrease by this evening, with patchy areas of dense
fog possible once again. Highs today will remain mostly in the mid/
upper 80s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to around 70.

The aforementioned low/trough is set to begin shifting east tomorrow
and this should lead to lower POPs overall. Drier air along with the
building ridge aloft from the west should help to limit the develop-
ment of showers/storms, with the best coverage generally east of the
I-45 corridor. And via this pattern shift, slightly warmer temperat-
ures will be on tap. Highs should run more into the upper 80s with a
few spots around 90. Lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Temperatures dominate consideration of the long term forecast, so
let`s discuss precip chances real quick, and get them out of the
way before we dig into the meat of the forecast. In broad strokes,
rain is just an ancillary consideration, as I have no more than
slight chances for rain the forecast - and even then, it`s pretty
front-loaded for late this week and this weekend. We`re probably
going to need the convergence on the seabreeze to get much of
anything to pop, particularly on Friday into the weekend as the
faucet gets squeezed off. Thursday still looks to show a bit more
of a typical diurnal trend, with some offshore chances for rain
early in the morning, but it wouldn`t be a surprise if we`re
unable to manage even an isolated updraft should our upcoming
blast furnace pattern build in early/strong.

Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of
hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re
looking. There`s been a bit of early discussion around the office
about any potential need for heat advisories, but other than
"they`re on the table", it`s far too early to speak much more on
that. Regardless of headlines, a solid early summer hot spell is
a very high confidence forecast going into next week. Early season
heat is often more dangerous due to the lack of acclimation, so if
you don`t have a heat buddy yet...get one!

Okay, so, hot stretch on the way, check. It might get real hot.
But you might be asking me, "how are you so confident about this
heat, really? You`re always talking about uncertainty at range.
Even tonight, you`re talking about it". And you`re certainly right
on those last couple of sentences. On the other hand though, the
meteorology here seems pretty straightforward. By Sunday
afternoon, the Euro and GFS both have a 593-595 dm 500 mb high,
with ridging of some sort being the prevailing weather feature for
our area down to the surface. By Tuesday afternoon, that mid-level
ridge is 595-596 dm and drifting closer to Texas, while ridging at
lower levels strengthens and 850 mb temps push over 20C.

But where the confidence really starts to come in is in the
ensemble data. From Saturday through Tuesday, the NAEFS mean 850
mb temps start to push above the 90th percentile at the coast,
eventually spreading across the area and 97th percentile temps
begin to emerge. The Euro ensemble wants to turn the torch a
little hotter; As we push into next week, its mean 850 mb temp is
above the 97th percentile for most of the area, and a good chunk
of the area - roughly I-10 south - is above the 99th percentile.
When mean 850 temps are pushing extremes, heat is sure to follow.

It is worth noting that the Euro`s Extreme Forecast Index doesn`t
necessarily translate all of this to surface temps. Indeed, its
max temp EFIs for most of the area are below 0.5, and only 0.6 to
0.7 at the coast. This is where some of that talk of uncertainty
starts to creep back in. Yeah, it`s looking pretty good to be hot.
Probably even more than the "usual" hot. But extreme heat is still
TBD. For now, I tried not to stray too far from the NBM. I
basically took the higher of the deterministic NBM and the median
NBMs for high temps. Since the two are pretty close in this
instance, this is just a slight hedge towards heat. Cluster
analysis suggests that the primary scenarios are pretty close to
the multi-model ensemble mean, so this seems like a pretty
reasonable place to shoot for right now.

Now, do you want a sneak peek beyond the forecast period? The Euro
ensemble mean 850 temps keep getting hotter later in the week, and
even start to max out the model climo. So, for as much as hotter
temperatures are the talk of the latter part of this forecast,
don`t necessarily expect that talk to be quieting down in the days
to come.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Patchy dense fog along with some lower ceilings across SE TX this
morning should start mixing out by mid morning or so as light on-
shore winds develop. But we progress into the afternoon, look for
additional rounds of showers/storms to develop. But for locations
along the coast, activity could start a bit earlier given the de-
velopment over the Gulf overnight that has been slowly moving to-
ward the coast. However, still keeping the mention of precipitat-
ion as VCTS for now...with TEMPO groups likely as coverage begins
to expand. Rain chances to decrease around sunset once again with
the loss of daytime heating. Patchy dense fog and/or low ceilings
are going to possible once again tonight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The persistence of a slow-moving upper trough means we can expect
unsettled weather to continue again today, with rain and storm
potential peaking overnight and early in the morning over the
Gulf, and later in the morning and afternoon on the bays. Showers
and thunderstorms will generate locally higher winds and seas,
but otherwise light winds and low seas will persist this week.
This disturbed pattern will slowly wind down through the second
half of the week, and go quiet next week as ridging takes command
and more fair weather and hotter temperatures prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 68 89 70 / 30 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 87 70 89 71 / 50 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 85 76 / 40 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs
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jasons2k
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Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:22 am Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
It’ll be about 105 to 107 at your place lol
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:55 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:22 am Weather app shows 100’s beginning next week.
I’m so glad I will be in Florida.
It’ll be about 105 to 107 at your place lol
I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m glad we have house sitters to water while I’m gone.
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jasons2k
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NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
Not nearly as good of a chance today compared to yesterday.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
This has been coming for some time. The westerlies and any trace of the SJT are going to lift with the gap being occupied by the Death Ridge. Time varies...but can occur in June, getting locked in during July and August.

Unfortunately, El Niño done gone El Nunya.

I just looked at St. Augustine weather. It looks perfect for beach R&R.
Stratton20
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With this kind of ridge its going to take a tropical system to break it down, the GFS ans GEFS are signaling that something may try to brew in the caribbean around the 19th, but thats a story for another day, this heat ridge is going to SUCK
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:17 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:07 am NWS:
Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re looking.
It’s the meteorological summer. In what other season does it get this hot?
In June though? That's usually July / August weather.

On another note, is there confidence it's actually going to rain today? The future casts I saw last night just looked spotty.
It’s still the summer season. Why not simply go with “unusually hot” versus “unseasonably hot”?

Anyway I, for one, expect decent coverage later this afternoon. Nice cumulus field without overcast.
Cromagnum
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Had a nice cell bearing down, but like clockwork, there goes the damned outflow ahead of it to shut it all down.
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