2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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I thought it seemed appropriate that we start a new thread on this topic.

There looks to be an early season MDR storm developing soon. That may be a precursor to an active season but there have been exceptions so it’s far from a guarantee.

Also, I mentioned a few days back that the MDR’s SST’s are running above normal. Often times, that can lead to a lot of out to sea recurve tracks but that’s not always the case. It’s just that usually the quicker the storm forms after splashdown from the African coast, the better chance it has at recurving. Weaker systems have a better chance at moving further west.

This may just be my opinion but I honestly have zero interest in fish storms.
Stratton20
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Man the models are showing a very active wave train , with one wave after another coming off of Africa over the next 10+ days, thats very interesting to see
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Katdaddy
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This will be an interesting El Nino Hurricane Season with a very warm MDR.
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DoctorMu
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Katdaddy wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:30 am This will be an interesting El Nino Hurricane Season with a very warm MDR.
Yeah, it's hard to know now which way it will go.
Stratton20
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Interesting to see 92l on the right and on the left, this is just inside day 5, the GFS suggests maybe another weak low pressure triest to get going and drifts north into the gulf of mexico?

It appears the GFS is trying to develop something out of all of that thunderstorm activity in the far south caribbean sea
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Cpv17
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Looks like the NW Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR have definitely cooled off over the past week or so. I’m not really that impressed with the anomalies tbh.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 its going to keep fluctuating, but its always going to be well warm enough for development, nw gom and caribbean are in the mid to upper 80’s, little cooling wont do much unless its a significant hurricane that can really upwell colder water
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2023 7:41 pm Cpv17 its going to keep fluctuating, but its always going to be well warm enough for development, nw gom and caribbean are in the mid to upper 80’s, little cooling wont do much unless its a significant hurricane that can really upwell colder water
Yeah but I’m not seeing crazy departures like so many others are talking about. The part of the MDR where most storms travel is only like 1°C above normal. The northern part of the MDR is pretty above normal but most storms don’t even travel through there.
Stratton20
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I think the talk is more about how the MDR is even running above normal when it shouldnt be due to el nino, usually it would be cooler than normal during a strengthening el nino, but its not right now
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:28 pm I think the talk is more about how the MDR is even running above normal when it shouldnt be due to el nino, usually it would be cooler than normal during a strengthening el nino, but its not right now
Yeah. Now that I can definitely agree with.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I think 92L could be a precurser of whats to come , this definitely wont be you’re typical atlantic el nino hurricane season
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:41 pm Cpv17 I think 92L could be a precurser of whats to come , this definitely wont be you’re typical atlantic el nino hurricane season
That’s kinda what I’m leaning towards right now too.
Stratton20
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Interesting to see the GFS is still trying to spin up a weak low in the NW caribbean, sends a weak low into south texas at hour 168 fwiw
Cpv17
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Talk on S2K is that the Caribbean and Gulf will see suppressed action this year. So basically a bunch of fish storms. We’ll see. But that’s what I was thinking too.
Stratton20
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Could be true, but also the opposite, really tough call to make when an active season looms ahead, i think the caribbean could be a graveyard this year, but not necessarily the gulf , potential is their for a repeat of 2020
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Stratton20
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Im not going to bet on that, especially since its looking like an active season, and especially since models are showing a very active wave train setting up after 92L, tough to say but i very much doubt the gulf escapes this season without a few hurricane threats
Stratton20
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The wave behind 92L already has a medium chance to develop, thats insane
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 19, 2023 12:59 pm The wave behind 92L already has a medium chance to develop, thats insane
Yes and there’s another one behind that one as well.
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DoctorMu
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Behind Bret. Bret's headed to the Caribbean, which seems hostile for now for development.

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Stratton20
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I still think its worth watching to see, if bret can maintain a circulation in the caribbean, it * Could* and I mean * COULD* be a threat potentially to mexico or the US gulf coast
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