2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

I thought it seemed appropriate that we start a new thread on this topic.

There looks to be an early season MDR storm developing soon. That may be a precursor to an active season but there have been exceptions so it’s far from a guarantee.

Also, I mentioned a few days back that the MDR’s SST’s are running above normal. Often times, that can lead to a lot of out to sea recurve tracks but that’s not always the case. It’s just that usually the quicker the storm forms after splashdown from the African coast, the better chance it has at recurving. Weaker systems have a better chance at moving further west.

This may just be my opinion but I honestly have zero interest in fish storms.

[Stratton20]

Man the models are showing a very active wave train , with one wave after another coming off of Africa over the next 10+ days, thats very interesting to see

[Katdaddy]

This will be an interesting El Nino Hurricane Season with a very warm MDR.

[DoctorMu]

This will be an interesting El Nino Hurricane Season with a very warm MDR.

Yeah, it's hard to know now which way it will go.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see 92l on the right and on the left, this is just inside day 5, the GFS suggests maybe another weak low pressure triest to get going and drifts north into the gulf of mexico?

It appears the GFS is trying to develop something out of all of that thunderstorm activity in the far south caribbean sea

[Cpv17]

Looks like the NW Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR have definitely cooled off over the past week or so. I’m not really that impressed with the anomalies tbh.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 its going to keep fluctuating, but its always going to be well warm enough for development, nw gom and caribbean are in the mid to upper 80’s, little cooling wont do much unless its a significant hurricane that can really upwell colder water

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 its going to keep fluctuating, but its always going to be well warm enough for development, nw gom and caribbean are in the mid to upper 80’s, little cooling wont do much unless its a significant hurricane that can really upwell colder water

Yeah but I’m not seeing crazy departures like so many others are talking about. The part of the MDR where most storms travel is only like 1°C above normal. The northern part of the MDR is pretty above normal but most storms don’t even travel through there.

[Stratton20]

I think the talk is more about how the MDR is even running above normal when it shouldnt be due to el nino, usually it would be cooler than normal during a strengthening el nino, but its not right now

[Cpv17]

I think the talk is more about how the MDR is even running above normal when it shouldnt be due to el nino, usually it would be cooler than normal during a strengthening el nino, but its not right now

Yeah. Now that I can definitely agree with.