September 2023

[davidiowx]

Rain hates my house

[Cpv17]

Rain hates my house

It’s been right on my doorstep for 30 minutes now but just won’t come here. At least not yet.

[user:null]

I'm actually pleasantly surprised to see the amount of coverage that has been happening today, considering that the front earlier this week supposedly "pushed all the moisture offshore". Good storms in the Sugar Land area.

[Cromagnum]

On track to be the hottest September we've ever had.

The GFS is probably on crack like normal, but this sure would be nice...

https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/17070 ... 21461?s=20

[jasons2k]

Some late night activity popping up north.

I don’t have the time or patience to mess with a 3rd party image site. My old photobucket images are toast.

I’ll post images on Storm2k where uploading works

[DoctorMu]

On track to be the hottest September we've ever had.

The GFS is probably on crack like normal, but this sure would be nice...

https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/17070 ... 21461?s=20

CMC in shocking agreement. GEPS ensemble is hesitant. GEFS goes along, but as expected.

[DoctorMu]

Welp. TWC has jinxed it with a 45° low on the morning of the 8th.

[txsnowmaker]

Welp. TWC has jinxed it with a 45° low on the morning of the 8th.

??? TWC showing 68 degrees for low that day in Metro Houston.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/1b ... Nav_Tenday

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Drier air/subsidence aloft will continue to filter in over Southeast
TX today as a sfc high moves overhead and an upper level ridge
builds over the central CONUS. Despite a mid to upper level drier
airmass, PWAT values are progged to remain into the 1.3 to 1.8 inch
range today. Low level moisture, a few impulses of energy riding in
the northwest flow aloft and daytime heating will allow for isolated
showers and thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will remain
offshore and along the coastline. However, cannot ruled out a few
showers and storms popping up inland late this afternoon and evening.
Above normal temperatures continue with highs mainly from the mid to
upper 90s.

Synoptic pattern does not change much by Friday as the upper-ridge
remains over the Central/Southern Plains. This pattern will keep
relatively dry conditions across most of the area, with the
exception along our coastal counties and waters. Persistent easterly
surface flow along with passing mid level shortwaves will bring
increasing rain/storms chances over these locations during the day.
Have continued with 20-45 percent of PoPs generally south of I-10.
The best chances will be over the coastal waters.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Not too many changes with the long term as this warm summer-like pat-
tern persists over the weekend through the middle of next week. Progs
keep mid/upper ridging in place over the Southern Plains with surface
high pressure lingering over the eastern CONUS. A prevailing easterly
flow at the lower levels could bring periodic surges of deeper moist-
ure in from the Gulf (PWs ~2") during this timeframe which could then
translate to scattered POPs for mainly the southern/coastal CWA. High
temperatures should remain above normal...in the mid to upper 90s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

VFR conditions with light east to southeasterly winds are expected
through the period. A few showers and storms will be possible
late this afternoon through early evening. Given moderate
confidence in occurrence near the terminals, have only included
VCSH.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Will be keeping with the forecast of generally light E/SE winds and
relatively low seas the next couple of days. But by the weekend, we
should see a more persistent and strengthening easterly fetch deve-
lop over our marine waters. However, winds/seas should remain below
Caution criteria. Additionally, periods of scattered showers/storms
will be possible...with winds and seas higher in and near this act-
ivity. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 97 72 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 95 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 80 / 20 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41

[Cpv17]

Big changes on the CPC forecast today.