September 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:10 pm Emptied the rain bucket and added another 1.30” yesterday which brings my storm total to 3.69” for Thu-Sat. There is still standing water in places.
A welcome change.

I think our grass in the back has finally stopped dying, due to about an inch of rain. We used 6% iron fertilizer watering out the wazoo in August, July, early September - it wasn't enough.

On a good note, the trees are going to make it and the front lawn is doing better.

Survive and advance. :lol:
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djmike
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IMO only. I think the gulf is done for the hurricane season. Looks like the typical far east season is in full swing that we see at the end of the season.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181149
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

Not much in the way of active weather is expected in the immediate
term as a midlevel ridge continues to build into the area to our SW.
This, along with a surge of drier air driven by offshore winds
behind the departure of a frontal boundary yesterday, will work to
stifle any rainfall chances for now. The intrusion of drier air will
become fairly noticeable this afternoon as advection and diurnal
mixing work to push surface dew points down into the lower 50s
across most inland areas and the upper 50s to 60s closer to the
coast. While slight increases in midlevel heights will result in a
marginal increase in afternoon highs (mid 90s inland, near 90 along
the coast), conditions should feel a bit more pleasant with the
steady drop off in dew points. Overnight lows, aided by mostly clear
skies, will generally drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

An eastward shift in surface high pressure over the Central Plains
will allow for a return of SE winds by late Monday, allowing for
moisture levels to rise once again heading into Tuesday. However,
with ow wind speeds dampening the rate of advection and relatively
efficient diurnal mixing, we should still see most locations carrying
dew points in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. An isolated
shower or two offshore cannot be ruled out, but no rainfall over
land is expected. Highs again will approach the mid 90s with
overnight lows sitting near 70.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

Broad ridging across Mexico into the Rockies will expand eastward
across south and central Texas during the second half of the work
week. With a mainly quiet nw flow aloft, chances of rain during
this period will remain low, though not exactly nil. With continued
onshore winds in place in the llvls I wouldn`t be surprised to
see some isolated streamer shra and/or seabreeze activity at
times...but nothing much of significance. This weekend, a western
trof will be passing across the Rockies and toward the Midwest.
This should shunt the ridging back to the south/southwest. This
system may send a decaying frontal boundary close or into the region
Sunday-ish. Not much to get excited about (temp or precip-wise)
at this point, but did note most of the deterministic guidance
supports higher rain chances than what are currently reflected in
the forecast. Just something we`ll be keeping an eye on as the
week progresses. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Light ENE winds will transition to the SE over the next 18-24
hours, but wind speeds will generally remain below 10 knots. No
issues with cigs/visibilities are expected in the immediate term.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

Surface high pressure will move off to the the east later today
allowing for a return of onshore winds. Speeds and seas will
slightly increase into midweek. Wind speeds may flirt with
caution criteria in the Gulf waters for a short time period both
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 88 81 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42
Cromagnum
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djmike wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:57 am IMO only. I think the gulf is done for the hurricane season. Looks like the typical far east season is in full swing that we see at the end of the season.
Bring on the cold fronts !
Pas_Bon
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djmike wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:57 am IMO only. I think the gulf is done for the hurricane season. Looks like the typical far east season is in full swing that we see at the end of the season.
agreed
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:57 am IMO only. I think the gulf is done for the hurricane season. Looks like the typical far east season is in full swing that we see at the end of the season.
Watch out for next season ;)

This season was never really a threat for us. Played out like I expected.
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don
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Next decent chance of rain looks to be around the 25th as a front moves in.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:50 am
djmike wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:57 am IMO only. I think the gulf is done for the hurricane season. Looks like the typical far east season is in full swing that we see at the end of the season.
Bring on the cold fronts !
That's the least we deserve after this summer.
Pas_Bon
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Congratulations. We all have survived the next level of Jumanji. As temperatures normalize and rain chances become existent once more, we bid a very hearty “#%^* you” to Hell Summer 2023.

It hasn’t been fun. Bring on the snow. Congratulations, Texans. We deserve the best life has to offer after this tribulation.

Geaux Fall.
Cromagnum
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Here's to fall/winter lasting until next May.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

With a midlevel ridge continuing to build to our SW, conditions
should remain near seasonable and generally benign in the immediate
term. The broad area of surface high pressure to our NE has
gradually shifted eastward over the past 24 hours, allowing for the
redevelopment of an onshore flow regime over SE TX this evening.
Winds should continue to shift southward over the course of the day
today, allowing for moisture levels to gradually creep upwards. That
being said, we should still see some relatively efficient diurnal
mixing this afternoon that should push dew point values down into
the 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon highs should once again approach the
low to mid 90s area-wide. Minimal cloud cover should again prove
favorable for radiative cooling, though steady onshore flow should
push up overnight lows into the upper 60s/lower 70s due to the
resultant increase in WAA.

A slightly warmer and more humid day is expected on Wednesday as
the aforementioned ridge continues to strengthen to our SW. The
resultant increase in moisture as a result of the southerly winds
will push surface dew points back into the 70s and thus bring back
the potential for heat index values of around 100 for most
locations. Overnight lows will return to the mid/upper 70s by
Wednesday night. A few isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out
along the immediate coast.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Expect isolated, diurnally driven coastal showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon as moist onshore flow
persists across the area. Mid-level ridging centered over South
Texas/Eastern Mexico will limit the coverage of the precipitation,
but we can expect at least something to pop-up along the seabreeze
each day. This ridge will gradually strengthen/expand further
into Southeast Texas over the weekend leading to even a less
chance of precipitation. Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving
through the Northern Plains over the weekend will extend a weak
cold front into North Texas. This front will slowly move through
the Southern Plains late Sunday reaching Southeast Texas sometime
Monday. This front will bring an increase chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but the ridging aloft will still be in place
limiting the precipitation chances.

Temperatures through the long term will be fairly similar - expect
highs in the mid to upper 90s through Sunday with a slight cool
down into the low 90s on Monday (if we are lucky) and overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the duration of
the TAF period, with scattered clouds at around 5000-8000 ft
developing this afternoon. Southeast winds will shift further to
the south over the course of the day, remaining near or below 10
knots. Light and variable winds are expected overnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Generally light onshore winds and low seas will prevail through
the week as high pressure remains the in north central Gulf.
During the overnight periods, the onshore flow may approach
Caution flag criteria (around 15kts). Isolated showers may begin
to develop in the overnight or early morning hours Wednesday
through the weekend as the moist onshore flow persists.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 71 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 73 93 76 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 81 / 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Fowler
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:36 am Here's to fall/winter lasting until next May.
Can I get an AMEN!
Team #NeverSummer
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Rip76
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Cromagnum
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Rip76 wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 2:30 pm Anything going on in the gulf?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24
Stationary front that will get squished by high pressure.
...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains draped across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from SW Florida to near 25N95W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the frontal
boundary. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
evident north of the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3
ft are found south of the boundary. However, a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds
are occurring with the strongest convection.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from South Florida
across the central Gulf to near 25N95W. The front will slowly
dissipate through this evening. Then, a ridge will dominate the
basin producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas,
pulsing to moderate to fresh offshore the W Yucatan in the
evenings. Building high pressure north of the area could bring
fresh winds and building seas over the NE Gulf by the end of the
week.
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jasons2k
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Last couple of days have been a good 5 degrees warmer than the NWS forecast. They lowballed again tomorrow in my opinion.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:08 pm Last couple of days have been a good 5 degrees warmer than the NWS forecast. They lowballed again tomorrow in my opinion.
The dry air mixed down from the mid levels, making conditions drier and hotter.

About 1°F over the forecast today: 96°F ...but 2 degrees cooler than yesterday as return flow is beginning.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The past few days have featured climatologically dry air, which has
made it feel rather pleasant outside. Hmmm there`s gotta be a better
word for that...how about delightful? Nah let`s go with
supercalifragilisticexpialidocious! Happy National Gibberish
Day...AKA the only day I can use that in a discussion and have it
make somewhat sense. Alright, I`ll cut with the jibber-jabber and
get back to the thingamajig. PW values across Southeast Texas this
morning are mainly in the 1.1"-1.3" range, which is fairly close to
the 25th percentile (~1.20"). So, we`re still on the dry side...at
least for now. By this afternoon, we`ll see PW values rise to near
1.6"-1.7" and up to 1.8" by Thursday as moisture from the Gulf
continues to funnel in. This means humidity will be on the rise as
well, so we can wave goodbye to dewpoints in the 60s and greet our
old nemesis...dewpoints in the mid 70s. Onshore flow continues to
prevail at the surface with northwesterly flow aloft as a mid to
upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward.

Even though we`ll have embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft
providing PVA, there are two factors that will inhibit today`s PoPs.
Number one is the lack of moisture...although it will be increasing
we still will be below the 75th percentile (~1.82") by the end of
the day. Number two is unfavorable jet dynamics. A slightly
anticyclonically curved jet streak remains overhead throughout the
day and leaves us in the right exit region, which is an area of
upper level convergence. That`s no good if you want to see rain. As
a result, rain chances are no higher than 20% today with the best
chances being along and south of I-10. Some of the 00Z CAMs depict
another decaying MCS rolling towards us but fizzling out before it
makes it to us this afternoon/evening. Blame it on the dry air and
the jet streak! Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low
to mid 90s, so it`ll be fairly similar to Tuesday. Overnight
temperatures is where we see the biggest change due to the
increasing humidity. Low temperatures over the next couple of nights
will be in the mid to upper 70s. Just be aware that relative
humidity values will be around 90% in the morning hours, so plan
accordingly to avoid a bad hair day.

Thursday is a bit interesting with 500mb heights rising to 590-592
dam as the ridge is amplified due to an upper level low dipping down
into the western CONUS. 850mb temperatures will see a slight bump,
which means daytime highs get a slight bump as well. Expecting high
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s on Thursday. With
increased humidity in place though, we`ll have widespread heat index
values in the triple digits once again (101-105°F). This is not
quite into Heat Advisory territory, but definitely still noteworthy.
Rain chances will be slightly higher Thursday as well due to the
increasing moisture and removal of upper level convergence from the
equation. Rain chances will once again be the highest along and
south of I-10. The 00Z CAMs depict yet another decaying MCS drifting
towards us going into Thursday night as well, so I did include 20%
PoPs for the Piney Woods area.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Friday through the weekend will be more of the same as moist
onshore flow brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the coastal counties during the afternoon. Midlevel ridging
centered over South Texas will suppress precipitation, so not
expecting anything more than isolated coverage of the showers.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s
through the weekend (cannot out rule a rouge triple digit max
temperature either) and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for
most of the area with upper 70s expected along the shore.

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting come the end of the
weekend into Monday. A low pressure system moving through the
Northern Plains will bring in a weak cold front into SE Texas late
Sunday into Monday. This front may stall out near the coast
through midweek before washing out. An increase in showers and
thunderstorms will be likely as the front approaches and moves
into the region, which will be helpful in our drought stricken
area. While the cold front will not really be bringing "cold" air,
but we can expect temperatures to cool a few degrees with highs
expected on Tuesday to be in the low to mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Mainly a wind forecast as winds transition from light and variable
this morning over to breezy and southeasterly by this afternoon.
Some occasional gusts up to 18-20 knots will be possible. Winds
will trend towards becoming light and variable again overnight. On
early Thursday morning around 09Z, there is fairly good model
agreement on a deck of MVFR ceilings moving in over CLL, UTS, and
maybe CXO as well through ~15Z. Ceilings lift going into the mid
morning hours on Thursday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Onshore winds, generally light during the daytime hours and
approaching 15 knots in the evening and overnight hours, will
persist through the weekend. Short fused SCECs may need to be
issued during the overnight hours if the onshore flow become more
persistently 15 to 20kts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in the early morning hours through the next several
days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 90 81 / 20 10 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CDT early this
morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler
javakah
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The past few days have featured climatologically dry air, which has
made it feel rather pleasant outside. Hmmm there`s gotta be a better
word for that...how about delightful? Nah let`s go with
supercalifragilisticexpialidocious! Happy National Gibberish
Day...AKA the only day I can use that in a discussion and have it
make somewhat sense. Alright, I`ll cut with the jibber-jabber and
get back to the thingamajig
Have to love Batiste.
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DoctorMu
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The next washed out front in the GoM is probably our last chance for tropical action in SETX.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The weather across the region continues to be dominated by the
mid- level ridge centered to our WSW and the sfc high pressure to
our east. Persistent southeasterly sfc winds, thanks to the
departing sfc high, will continue to bring a warmer and more humid
airmass across the region. However, vertical profiles only show
an uptick in moisture at low levels with PWATs around 1.4 to 1.7
inch, which is still below average for this time of year.
Therefore, have only kept slight precipitation chances along the
coast and Gulf waters which is where higher moisture advection
resides.

Low-level moisture and light and variable winds should be enough
to produce low clouds and/or patchy fog near/after daybreak across
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area through Thursday morning.
In addition, streamer showers cannot be ruled out along the
coastal areas early in the morning.

As we go into Thursday, synoptic scale subsidence will likely be
on the rise as the upper ridge strengthens with its axis moving
overhead. This will likely keep most of the region dry. However,
will keep PoPs around 15 to 20 percent, particularly south of I-10
due to persistent southerly flow and weak moisture convergence.
An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across our northern
counties late in the afternoon and evening as subtle disturbances
move across eastern TX. With 850 mb temperatures increasing into
the upper teens to low 20s degC range, and southerly sfc winds,
Thursday`s highs are progged to reach the mid to upper 90s. Heat
indices in the triple digits can be anticipated, though these
values should remain below advisory criteria.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The SE TX forecast for Fri into the weekend will be dominated mainly
by the broad mid/upper ridge centered near South TX. Persistent S/SE
winds at the lower levels should make for warm/humid weather for all
of the CWA...with low POPs possible along/near the coast (via stream-
er showers during the overnight/early morning to isolated sea breeze
activity during the afternoons). High temperatures to range from the
mid to upper 90s through the weekend...lower 90s at the beaches. Low
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 70s to the upper 70s
at the immediate coast.

Heading into Mon, the eastward passage of a mid/upper level low over
the Northern Plains should help nudge the ridge back to the W/SW. In
the wake of the developing NW flow aloft, we`re still looking at the
possibility of a weak cold front moving into SE TX by late Sun/early
Mon. Isolated to scattered storms could accompany the boundary as it
moves into the CWA on Mon...with chance POPs lingering through Tues/
Weds as this front stalls near the coast and eventually washes out.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

VFR this evening with any gusty winds eventually weakening. Low ceiling
development still expected for some N and NW terminals generally between
10-15Z. These ceilings then lift with VFR conditions expected area wide
for the rest of the day and on into Thursday evening (could also occasionally
gusty winds too). Might see some late night thru early morning SHRA
development near the coast (GLS and LBX), but not confident enough to
mention in the TAFs. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Not a lot of changes from the previous forecast as onshore winds per-
sist through the end of the week on into the weekend. Winds will are
going to be generally light during the day...then becoming slightly
more elevated during the evening and overnight periods. Short fused
Caution flags may be needed at times. Otherwise, deepening moisture
(moving in from the Central Gulf) will help produce isolated mainly
overnight/early morning showers and storms across the marine waters
these next several days. A weak cold front could move off the upper
TX coast by early Mon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 76 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 20 30 20 40

&&
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Chances are roughly 90% of a SSWE this Winter.

Saw that tidbit in a newsletter yesterday.
Team #NeverSummer
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