September 2023

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

With a midlevel ridge continuing to build to our SW, conditions
should remain near seasonable and generally benign in the immediate
term. The broad area of surface high pressure to our NE has
gradually shifted eastward over the past 24 hours, allowing for the
redevelopment of an onshore flow regime over SE TX this evening.
Winds should continue to shift southward over the course of the day
today, allowing for moisture levels to gradually creep upwards. That
being said, we should still see some relatively efficient diurnal
mixing this afternoon that should push dew point values down into
the 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon highs should once again approach the
low to mid 90s area-wide. Minimal cloud cover should again prove
favorable for radiative cooling, though steady onshore flow should
push up overnight lows into the upper 60s/lower 70s due to the
resultant increase in WAA.

A slightly warmer and more humid day is expected on Wednesday as
the aforementioned ridge continues to strengthen to our SW. The
resultant increase in moisture as a result of the southerly winds
will push surface dew points back into the 70s and thus bring back
the potential for heat index values of around 100 for most
locations. Overnight lows will return to the mid/upper 70s by
Wednesday night. A few isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out
along the immediate coast.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Expect isolated, diurnally driven coastal showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon as moist onshore flow
persists across the area. Mid-level ridging centered over South
Texas/Eastern Mexico will limit the coverage of the precipitation,
but we can expect at least something to pop-up along the seabreeze
each day. This ridge will gradually strengthen/expand further
into Southeast Texas over the weekend leading to even a less
chance of precipitation. Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving
through the Northern Plains over the weekend will extend a weak
cold front into North Texas. This front will slowly move through
the Southern Plains late Sunday reaching Southeast Texas sometime
Monday. This front will bring an increase chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but the ridging aloft will still be in place
limiting the precipitation chances.

Temperatures through the long term will be fairly similar - expect
highs in the mid to upper 90s through Sunday with a slight cool
down into the low 90s on Monday (if we are lucky) and overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the duration of
the TAF period, with scattered clouds at around 5000-8000 ft
developing this afternoon. Southeast winds will shift further to
the south over the course of the day, remaining near or below 10
knots. Light and variable winds are expected overnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Generally light onshore winds and low seas will prevail through
the week as high pressure remains the in north central Gulf.
During the overnight periods, the onshore flow may approach
Caution flag criteria (around 15kts). Isolated showers may begin
to develop in the overnight or early morning hours Wednesday
through the weekend as the moist onshore flow persists.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 71 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 73 93 76 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 81 / 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Fowler

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Here's to fall/winter lasting until next May.

Can I get an AMEN!

[Rip76]

Anything going on in the gulf?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

[Cromagnum]

Anything going on in the gulf?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

Stationary front that will get squished by high pressure.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains draped across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from SW Florida to near 25N95W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the frontal
boundary. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
evident north of the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3
ft are found south of the boundary. However, a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds
are occurring with the strongest convection.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from South Florida
across the central Gulf to near 25N95W. The front will slowly
dissipate through this evening. Then, a ridge will dominate the
basin producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas,
pulsing to moderate to fresh offshore the W Yucatan in the
evenings. Building high pressure north of the area could bring
fresh winds and building seas over the NE Gulf by the end of the
week.

[jasons2k]

Last couple of days have been a good 5 degrees warmer than the NWS forecast. They lowballed again tomorrow in my opinion.

[DoctorMu]

Last couple of days have been a good 5 degrees warmer than the NWS forecast. They lowballed again tomorrow in my opinion.

The dry air mixed down from the mid levels, making conditions drier and hotter.

About 1°F over the forecast today: 96°F ...but 2 degrees cooler than yesterday as return flow is beginning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The past few days have featured climatologically dry air, which has
made it feel rather pleasant outside. Hmmm there`s gotta be a better
word for that...how about delightful? Nah let`s go with
supercalifragilisticexpialidocious! Happy National Gibberish
Day...AKA the only day I can use that in a discussion and have it
make somewhat sense. Alright, I`ll cut with the jibber-jabber and
get back to the thingamajig. PW values across Southeast Texas this
morning are mainly in the 1.1"-1.3" range, which is fairly close to
the 25th percentile (~1.20"). So, we`re still on the dry side...at
least for now. By this afternoon, we`ll see PW values rise to near
1.6"-1.7" and up to 1.8" by Thursday as moisture from the Gulf
continues to funnel in. This means humidity will be on the rise as
well, so we can wave goodbye to dewpoints in the 60s and greet our
old nemesis...dewpoints in the mid 70s. Onshore flow continues to
prevail at the surface with northwesterly flow aloft as a mid to
upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward.

Even though we`ll have embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft
providing PVA, there are two factors that will inhibit today`s PoPs.
Number one is the lack of moisture...although it will be increasing
we still will be below the 75th percentile (~1.82") by the end of
the day. Number two is unfavorable jet dynamics. A slightly
anticyclonically curved jet streak remains overhead throughout the
day and leaves us in the right exit region, which is an area of
upper level convergence. That`s no good if you want to see rain. As
a result, rain chances are no higher than 20% today with the best
chances being along and south of I-10. Some of the 00Z CAMs depict
another decaying MCS rolling towards us but fizzling out before it
makes it to us this afternoon/evening. Blame it on the dry air and
the jet streak! Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low
to mid 90s, so it`ll be fairly similar to Tuesday. Overnight
temperatures is where we see the biggest change due to the
increasing humidity. Low temperatures over the next couple of nights
will be in the mid to upper 70s. Just be aware that relative
humidity values will be around 90% in the morning hours, so plan
accordingly to avoid a bad hair day.

Thursday is a bit interesting with 500mb heights rising to 590-592
dam as the ridge is amplified due to an upper level low dipping down
into the western CONUS. 850mb temperatures will see a slight bump,
which means daytime highs get a slight bump as well. Expecting high
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s on Thursday. With
increased humidity in place though, we`ll have widespread heat index
values in the triple digits once again (101-105°F). This is not
quite into Heat Advisory territory, but definitely still noteworthy.
Rain chances will be slightly higher Thursday as well due to the
increasing moisture and removal of upper level convergence from the
equation. Rain chances will once again be the highest along and
south of I-10. The 00Z CAMs depict yet another decaying MCS drifting
towards us going into Thursday night as well, so I did include 20%
PoPs for the Piney Woods area.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Friday through the weekend will be more of the same as moist
onshore flow brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the coastal counties during the afternoon. Midlevel ridging
centered over South Texas will suppress precipitation, so not
expecting anything more than isolated coverage of the showers.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s
through the weekend (cannot out rule a rouge triple digit max
temperature either) and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for
most of the area with upper 70s expected along the shore.

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting come the end of the
weekend into Monday. A low pressure system moving through the
Northern Plains will bring in a weak cold front into SE Texas late
Sunday into Monday. This front may stall out near the coast
through midweek before washing out. An increase in showers and
thunderstorms will be likely as the front approaches and moves
into the region, which will be helpful in our drought stricken
area. While the cold front will not really be bringing "cold" air,
but we can expect temperatures to cool a few degrees with highs
expected on Tuesday to be in the low to mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Mainly a wind forecast as winds transition from light and variable
this morning over to breezy and southeasterly by this afternoon.
Some occasional gusts up to 18-20 knots will be possible. Winds
will trend towards becoming light and variable again overnight. On
early Thursday morning around 09Z, there is fairly good model
agreement on a deck of MVFR ceilings moving in over CLL, UTS, and
maybe CXO as well through ~15Z. Ceilings lift going into the mid
morning hours on Thursday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Onshore winds, generally light during the daytime hours and
approaching 15 knots in the evening and overnight hours, will
persist through the weekend. Short fused SCECs may need to be
issued during the overnight hours if the onshore flow become more
persistently 15 to 20kts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in the early morning hours through the next several
days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 90 81 / 20 10 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CDT early this
morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

[javakah]

The past few days have featured climatologically dry air, which has
made it feel rather pleasant outside. Hmmm there`s gotta be a better
word for that...how about delightful? Nah let`s go with
supercalifragilisticexpialidocious! Happy National Gibberish
Day...AKA the only day I can use that in a discussion and have it
make somewhat sense. Alright, I`ll cut with the jibber-jabber and
get back to the thingamajig

Have to love Batiste.

[DoctorMu]

The next washed out front in the GoM is probably our last chance for tropical action in SETX.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The weather across the region continues to be dominated by the
mid- level ridge centered to our WSW and the sfc high pressure to
our east. Persistent southeasterly sfc winds, thanks to the
departing sfc high, will continue to bring a warmer and more humid
airmass across the region. However, vertical profiles only show
an uptick in moisture at low levels with PWATs around 1.4 to 1.7
inch, which is still below average for this time of year.
Therefore, have only kept slight precipitation chances along the
coast and Gulf waters which is where higher moisture advection
resides.

Low-level moisture and light and variable winds should be enough
to produce low clouds and/or patchy fog near/after daybreak across
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area through Thursday morning.
In addition, streamer showers cannot be ruled out along the
coastal areas early in the morning.

As we go into Thursday, synoptic scale subsidence will likely be
on the rise as the upper ridge strengthens with its axis moving
overhead. This will likely keep most of the region dry. However,
will keep PoPs around 15 to 20 percent, particularly south of I-10
due to persistent southerly flow and weak moisture convergence.
An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across our northern
counties late in the afternoon and evening as subtle disturbances
move across eastern TX. With 850 mb temperatures increasing into
the upper teens to low 20s degC range, and southerly sfc winds,
Thursday`s highs are progged to reach the mid to upper 90s. Heat
indices in the triple digits can be anticipated, though these
values should remain below advisory criteria.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

The SE TX forecast for Fri into the weekend will be dominated mainly
by the broad mid/upper ridge centered near South TX. Persistent S/SE
winds at the lower levels should make for warm/humid weather for all
of the CWA...with low POPs possible along/near the coast (via stream-
er showers during the overnight/early morning to isolated sea breeze
activity during the afternoons). High temperatures to range from the
mid to upper 90s through the weekend...lower 90s at the beaches. Low
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 70s to the upper 70s
at the immediate coast.

Heading into Mon, the eastward passage of a mid/upper level low over
the Northern Plains should help nudge the ridge back to the W/SW. In
the wake of the developing NW flow aloft, we`re still looking at the
possibility of a weak cold front moving into SE TX by late Sun/early
Mon. Isolated to scattered storms could accompany the boundary as it
moves into the CWA on Mon...with chance POPs lingering through Tues/
Weds as this front stalls near the coast and eventually washes out.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

VFR this evening with any gusty winds eventually weakening. Low ceiling
development still expected for some N and NW terminals generally between
10-15Z. These ceilings then lift with VFR conditions expected area wide
for the rest of the day and on into Thursday evening (could also occasionally
gusty winds too). Might see some late night thru early morning SHRA
development near the coast (GLS and LBX), but not confident enough to
mention in the TAFs. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Not a lot of changes from the previous forecast as onshore winds per-
sist through the end of the week on into the weekend. Winds will are
going to be generally light during the day...then becoming slightly
more elevated during the evening and overnight periods. Short fused
Caution flags may be needed at times. Otherwise, deepening moisture
(moving in from the Central Gulf) will help produce isolated mainly
overnight/early morning showers and storms across the marine waters
these next several days. A weak cold front could move off the upper
TX coast by early Mon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 76 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 20 30 20 40

&&

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Chances are roughly 90% of a SSWE this Winter.

Saw that tidbit in a newsletter yesterday.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

I miss the low humidity days already...unfortunately higher amounts
of humidity are here to stay for quite awhile. Even though Fall
(astronomical) starts in a couple of days, we`ll continue to roll
with summer-like temperatures going into the weekend. We all know
summer unofficially lasts till October down here anyway. Mid to
upper level ridging becomes amplified today as an upper level low
dips down into the western CONUS. 500mb heights subsequently rise to
590-592 dam by this afternoon with 850mb temperatures in the 18-21°C
range. It`s worth noting that 850mb temperatures are near the 99th
percentile and 700mb temperatures are at their MAX percentiles
through at least Friday...so yeah. With that in mind, I bumped up
high temperatures by a few degrees with mid to upper 90s expected.
With elevated amounts of humidity though, heat indices will continue
to reach the triple digits mainly in a range of 102-106°F. So, not
anticipating reaching the Heat Advisory criteria at this
time...which I`m hoping stays that because I mentioned at the end of
August that we were likely done with those for the year. So, if we
end up with a late season heat advisory, then that`s on me. Even
though we`ll have increasing moisture (PW values up to 1.7"-1.8"
this afternoon) and northwesterly flow aloft prevailing, the
increasing subsidence from the rising mid-level heights will limit
rain chances to around 20%.

Do you remember...the 21st night of September? With overnight
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and the potential for patchy
fog around the Brazos Valley...you may not want to remember it, but
that`s what we have in store unfortunately. On Friday, the upper
level low over the western CONUS begins tracking eastward towards
the Northern Plains. While this is going on, another upper level low
begins to develop off of the coast of the Carolinas. The end result
is our 500mb heights decrease a tad bit, so daytime highs will be
right around the same or one degree cooler than Thursday`s. Another
difference is greater amounts of moisture with PW values rising to
1.9"-2.1" on Friday afternoon (90th percentile: ~2.02"). Due to
that, a passing embedded shortwave trough, and a slight decrease in
subsidence aloft, chances for showers/thunderstorms are a bit higher
on Friday...but only up to 30%. Keep in mind that we still need
rain...all of Southeast Texas remains in at least an extreme drought
with some in an exceptional drought, so every little bit of rain we
can get would be beneficial. Friday night will be a copy and paste
of Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s and the
potential for another round of patchy fog up north.

Lastly, with today being World Gratitude Day, wanted to say thank
you to all of you that either always read these discussions or are
reading them for the first time or anywhere in-between. We are very
grateful for each and every one of you! Thank you and keep on being
awesome! ♥

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Hot and humid weather will persist through the weekend as
southeasterly flow brings moisture into the area and a mid-level
ridge over South Texas bringing rising heights over our area.
There will be the daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms near the coast thanks to daytime heating triggers
precipitation along the seabreeze. High temperatures Saturday and
Sunday will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices in the low triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

A weak cold front associated with a low pressures system passing
to the north is expected to move into SE Texas late Sunday night
bringing with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. This front
will end up stalling somewhere near the coast continuing the rain
chances through mid week. However, the boundary may end up
stalling far enough south that the majority of the area remains
more dry than wet. Not anticipating any flooding concerns at this
time with expected totals up to 0.5 to 1", but any precipitation
will be helpful trying to alleviate the extreme to exceptional
drought SE Texas is experiencing. "Cooler" temperatures are
expected Monday through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures
rising into the low to mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Timing of the MVFR ceilings at our northern sites (CLL/UTS) has
been pushed back to 13Z. These lower ceilings are beginning to
fill in over central TX, so it appears it`s just a matter of time.
In addition to that, LBX has recently seen decreased visibilities
due to patchy fog. Expecting this to continue over through 14-15Z.
Outside of that, it`s mainly a wind forecast with light and
variable winds becoming southeasterly around 10 knots by the late
morning hours. Some isolated showers will be possible this morning
and afternoon along the coast, but coverage looks to be too low to
warrant throwing in VCSH at this time. Winds trend towards light
and variable again overnight with another round of MVFR ceilings
expected for CXO and northward on early Friday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Low seas and onshore flow will persist through the weekend with
speeds around 5 to 10kts during the morning and afternoon hours
and between 10 and 15kts during the evening and overnight hours.
There will be a slight chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms each day in the coastal waters. A boundary will
approach the coastline Monday of next week bringing increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms and more variable winds.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 81 / 30 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

Chances are roughly 90% of a SSWE this Winter.

Saw that tidbit in a newsletter yesterday.

I support this message.

We'll see more and more of these over time. Fingers crossed about the grid, but bring it!

[Stratton20]

90%? Why so high? Arent SSWE’s usually not all that common?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

90%? Why so high? Arent SSWE’s usually not all that common?

Nino plus descending easterly QBO = 9 times out of 10 winters it happens


But yes we normally don’t see that.

[Cromagnum]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

[djmike]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

Every once in a blue moon and every few years we will see a good strong front towards the end of September. I remember hurricane Ike and we had no power but a day or so after Ike passed, a strong front blew through and we were sooooo thankful. Right now I dont see a good strong one on the horizon but I would say Oct onward we should start. Just IMO only.

[Cpv17]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

Probably another 4 weeks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We start stepping down the 4th. Lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the 80s, so I’d say mid month.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah past this Sunday I see more 60s for lows than low 70s.

The last really hot Summer we had (2011), October turned in the 3rd week. I remember it well. I got married on Sunday 10-16-2011 and it was 85 degrees in CS. The next week it was 70 and I remembering how awesome that would have been for an outdoor wedding.

We don’t do Saturday weddings during the Fall

[Cpv17]

We start stepping down the 4th. Lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the 80s, so I’d say mid month.

The latest CPC outlook for October still keeps us well above average temp wise. Not saying I buy I it though, cuz I do expect a sharp front to come in mid to late month.