Post
by tireman4 » Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:35 am
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Not much in the way of active weather is expected in the immediate
term as a midlevel ridge continues to build into the area to our SW.
This, along with a surge of drier air driven by offshore winds
behind the departure of a frontal boundary yesterday, will work to
stifle any rainfall chances for now. The intrusion of drier air will
become fairly noticeable this afternoon as advection and diurnal
mixing work to push surface dew points down into the lower 50s
across most inland areas and the upper 50s to 60s closer to the
coast. While slight increases in midlevel heights will result in a
marginal increase in afternoon highs (mid 90s inland, near 90 along
the coast), conditions should feel a bit more pleasant with the
steady drop off in dew points. Overnight lows, aided by mostly clear
skies, will generally drop into the 60s to lower 70s.
An eastward shift in surface high pressure over the Central Plains
will allow for a return of SE winds by late Monday, allowing for
moisture levels to rise once again heading into Tuesday. However,
with ow wind speeds dampening the rate of advection and relatively
efficient diurnal mixing, we should still see most locations carrying
dew points in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. An isolated
shower or two offshore cannot be ruled out, but no rainfall over
land is expected. Highs again will approach the mid 90s with
overnight lows sitting near 70.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Broad ridging across Mexico into the Rockies will expand eastward
across south and central Texas during the second half of the work
week. With a mainly quiet nw flow aloft, chances of rain during
this period will remain low, though not exactly nil. With continued
onshore winds in place in the llvls I wouldn`t be surprised to
see some isolated streamer shra and/or seabreeze activity at
times...but nothing much of significance. This weekend, a western
trof will be passing across the Rockies and toward the Midwest.
This should shunt the ridging back to the south/southwest. This
system may send a decaying frontal boundary close or into the region
Sunday-ish. Not much to get excited about (temp or precip-wise)
at this point, but did note most of the deterministic guidance
supports higher rain chances than what are currently reflected in
the forecast. Just something we`ll be keeping an eye on as the
week progresses. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Light ENE winds will transition to the SE over the next 18-24
hours, but wind speeds will generally remain below 10 knots. No
issues with cigs/visibilities are expected in the immediate term.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Surface high pressure will move off to the the east later today
allowing for a return of onshore winds. Speeds and seas will
slightly increase into midweek. Wind speeds may flirt with
caution criteria in the Gulf waters for a short time period both
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 88 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42
