November 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Will it rain? Will it be drier? Will it be cold? We shall see.
Pas_Bon
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Yes
Cpv17
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Let us get 10” of rain and 10” of snow. Bring it!! This boring weather can go kick rocks!
Stratton20
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Im hearing November will be mild, i dont really see any “real chilly” weather until the end of november or beginning of december, huge lack of a snowpack in canada is one thing to blame for that, its mainly confined to the arctic circle right now
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:14 am Im hearing November will be mild, i dont really see any “real chilly” weather until the end of november or beginning of december, huge lack of a snowpack in canada is one thing to blame for that, its mainly confined to the arctic circle right now
Unfortunately, I don’t have high hopes for winter if I’m being completely honest.
Stratton20
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CPV17 im not concerned about winter, we will have our fair share of arctic fronts, and i expect a couple of chances for wintry precipitation as well, its only october, this isnt a normal El nino, but im definitely not throwing the towel on winter, im seeing a decent signal of a + PNA pattern setting up for winter potentially , that could be good for us as long as it doesnt go too positive
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 11:14 am CPV17 im not concerned about winter, we will have our fair share of arctic fronts, and i expect a couple of chances for wintry precipitation as well, its only october, this isnt a normal El nino, but im definitely not throwing the towel on winter, im seeing a decent signal of a + PNA pattern setting up for winter potentially , that could be good for us as long as it doesnt go too positive
We will need some ridging to pop over the GOA or Alaska. Right now the waters over the GOA are near normal. We need them to go above normal.
jmead
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I’m visiting Banff Alberta and having highs in the 50’s and 60’s and no snow cover anywhere except the tops of mountains. Way above average for them.
Cpv17
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Long ways out but I’m starting to see signs of another big EPO tank around the end of the second week of November.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep ive been noticing that too, looks like the first ~10 days of november looks to be slightly above average, and the. maybe another cold blast depending on how the PNA evolves as well
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MontgomeryCoWx
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First 10 days of November don’t look above average for me in CoCo. Average to slightly below. One day is above and that’s this coming Monday.
Team #NeverSummer
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DoctorMu
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Another big front in mid November. Seems typical.
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DoctorMu
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In the 30s in the countryside. Still, in the low 40s IMBY. 44°F at the airport. Dang Aggie Heat Island. We need some frost!

CoCo will probably hit freezing.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2023 2:12 am In the 30s in the countryside. Still, in the low 40s IMBY. 44°F at the airport. Dang Aggie Heat Island. We need some frost!

CoCo will probably hit freezing.
Got down to 34
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Cool, dry, and largely pleasant conditions will continue through
Thursday. Latest satellite imagery indicates clear skies as drier
air continues to work its way into the area this morning. With north
winds also diminishing as surface high pressure approaches the
region, conditions should be quite pleasant today with diminishing
winds, sunny skies, and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
areas. Continued clear conditions will enhance overnight radiative
cooling which, combined with CAA from the persistent northerly
winds, should give us our coldest night for the foreseeable future.
A good portion of our northern counties remain on course to drop
below freezing, and as such the Freeze Warning has been expanded to
include additional counties for tonight. Overnight lows will range
from the upper 20s across the far northern zones to the upper 30s to
low 40s along the immediate coast.

A pattern shift begins on Thursday as the eastward trek of surface
high pressure results in the development of an E/ESE surface flow.
As such, a gradual trend of increasing temperatures and moisture is
expected again as highs reach the mid to upper 60s and lows drop
into the 40s to lower 50s. No rainfall is expected area-wide for the
time being.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

We pick things up on Friday with surface high pressure off to our
east over the mid-Atlantic coast. Onshore flow will be back in
action, which means we can (unfortunately) expect a rise in
temperatures and moisture heading into the weekend. It`s worth
mentioning that an embedded shortwave trough moves through on
Friday, but moisture won`t have rebounded back yet to support
anything more than an increase in clouds. There is another shortwave
that passes through early in the weekend, and this time PW values
will range from 1.1"-1.3" (75th percentile: ~1.39"). Greater
moisture availability will be along the coast and offshore, so this
is where the PoPs are relegated to for Saturday. This`ll be off the
"streamer shower" variety and not anything substantial. PVA does
last into early next week though as an upper level low moves through
northern Mexico over the weekend and sends some impulses downstream,
but we`ll get into why that doesn`t result into rain chances. As far
as temperatures go, expect an upward trend as we go from the mid to
upper 70s on Friday to the low 80s on Sunday and mid to upper 80s on
Monday. Low temperatures follow that trend as well with mid to upper
50s on Friday night becoming the low to mid 60s by Sunday night.

This paragraph is going to be unnecessarily nerdy, so if you want a
quick summary...upper level dynamics will hamper rain chances early
next week. Feel free to skip ahead to next paragraph where we talk
about the next cold front. For those that want a deeper dive into
the reasoning behind the low rain chances...read on :) Now with all
that PVA early next week and at least some moisture in place, why do
rain chances drop back to slim to none after Sunday? That`ll be
thanks to good ol` upper level confluence...and then eventually
upper level convergence from a jet streak. On Monday, the upper
level low discussed in the prior paragraph will continue to move
eastward and with zonal flow already in place, this creates a region
where the flow aloft is converging over Southeast TX. So, we`re
increasing the volume of the airmass overhead so there would be no
room for anything to develop. Going into Tuesday/Wednesday, a fairly
robust jet streak develops to our northeast and places us in the
right exit region which is known for upper level convergence and
NVA. So, effectively everything cancels each other out and we end up
with less than 10% PoPs through midweek. I could`ve just left it as
rain chances are low, but typing that out was much more fun...plus
it helps me stay awake on these overnight shifts!

As far as the next cold front goes, there remains quite a bit of
discrepancy in the deterministic models. A surface low develops over
the Northern Plains on Monday and moves due eastward keeping the
associated cold front to our north past midweek. Another upper level
trough moving through midweek should provide the push the front
needs to make it through Southeast Texas, but the timing looks to be
just past the extent of the long term period...so lots of time for
things to change. After Tuesday, the spread in the upper and lower
quartiles in the NBM distribution is ~10°F...so we could be in the
80s or the 70s with lows in the 50s or 60s. Just to give y`all an
idea on the amount of uncertainty with the forecast next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period,
with north winds prevailing throughout the course of the day. Some
gusts of 15-20 knots cannot be ruled through early afternoon,
after which wind speeds will diminish. Winds become light and
variable overnight. Skies will remain clear throughout the
duration of the period.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Winds and seas will gradually decrease throughout the day, but
remain elevated enough into the late morning/early afternoon for
Small Craft Advisories to remain in effect for the bays and Gulf
waters. The Small Craft Advisory for the bays and nearshore waters
goes through 10am, and through 1pm for the offshore waters. Low
water will be possible again late this morning into the afternoon
with waters in Galveston Bay/Houston Ship Channel likely falling
into the -0.5 to -1.0 ft MLLW range, so a Low Water Advisory has
been issued. Expect the northeasterly flow to become easterly by the
end of the work week then southeasterly over the weekend as surface
high pressure transitions to the east and brings a return to onshore
flow. Additionally, a slight chance of rain showers returns to the
forecast towards the end of the week as moisture begins to return.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 31 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 36 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 52 67 59 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ163-176.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195-196-198-200.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Low Water Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 AM this morning to 1
PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste
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DoctorMu
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YES! Freeze Warning tonight in CLL. Light winds, low DP.

NWS: 31°F
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MontgomeryCoWx
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RANGERS!!! Finally!

Good day for this Longview born and bred boy!
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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Finally got that allusive world series trophy! Feels great😄
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:50 pm RANGERS!!! Finally!

Good day for this Longview born and bred boy!
Well I’ll let you slide since Longview is closer to DFW than it is to Houston. Rangers can go kick rocks for all I’m concerned. Houston for life!
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DoctorMu
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34°F IMBY. We might make it.
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