February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harpman
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wxman57 wrote:
harpman wrote:Believe it or not, we are getting reports of snow about 25 to 30 miles west of New Orleans.
RUC sounding would not support snow there:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Actual sounding from Slidell indicates very little moisture aloft and temps above freezing, too:
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KLIX.gif

However, radar is showing a narrow band of precip just west of New Orleans. I guess we can't rule out some light snow there.

This was reported by a storm spotter.
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srainhoutx
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The Canadian (GEM) continues to suggest an interesting setup for Central/Coastal TX...and perhaps starting earlier as well...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mr. T
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Wow. The CMC moves precip into here by tomorrow morning. That would be bad...
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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote:The Canadian (GEM) continues to suggest an interesting setup for Central/Coastal TX...and perhaps starting earlier as well...
It seems these things always start and end earlier than the models predict.
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wxman57
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It appears we really won't have a good handle on snowfall accumulations for another 24-36 hours. It would sure help to have a sounding station close to Houston. The HGX office can launch soundings for special weather events. If this isn't one, I don't know what is. I don't really trust the projected model soundings. Maybe tomorrow's 12Z runs will have a better handle on the event. Will probably have to wait until tomorrow afternoon/evening and actually see precip falling to have a good idea as to what will materialize.
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tireman4
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wxman57 wrote:It appears we really won't have a good handle on snowfall accumulations for another 24-36 hours. It would sure help to have a sounding station close to Houston. The HGX office can launch soundings for special weather events. If this isn't one, I don't know what is. I don't really trust the projected model soundings. Maybe tomorrow's 12Z runs will have a better handle on the event. Will probably have to wait until tomorrow afternoon/evening and actually see precip falling to have a good idea as to what will materialize.

That is almost scary.
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Mr. T
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wxman57 wrote:It appears we really won't have a good handle on snowfall accumulations for another 24-36 hours. It would sure help to have a sounding station close to Houston. The HGX office can launch soundings for special weather events. If this isn't one, I don't know what is.
I was actually wondering about that... Strange that we don't have a sounding station here in Houston
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Just by viewing the visibile satellite I can see clouds thicking over deep South Texas and the adjacent coastal waters. I too believe this will start much earlier than expect and will catch many by surprise. We are getting close to crunch time and expect the NWS to hoisted WSW tonight if not in the afternoon package.
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srainhoutx
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Yep. Austin/San Antonio as well as Brownsville updates strongly suggest a WSW is coming. EWX even mentions higher totals than previously thought.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1110 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.UPDATE...
NEW UPDATE REFLECTS EXPIRATION OF WIND CHILL ADVY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES WILL EXTENDING NRN COUNTIES THROUGH THURS MORNING AND A
NEW WIND CHILL ADVY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SAME COUNTIES THAT
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. AGAIN...THE ADVY CRITERIA IS FOR NEAR ZERO
INDEX VALUES...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF LEEWAY TO
ACCOUNT LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL COOLING IMPACT
THIS VERY DRY AIR COULD HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAYS HIGHS DUE TO HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

THE MORNING UPDATE ALSO ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE NEW 12Z MODEL
RUNS THAT ADD MORE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL...MAINLY DUE TO THE
INCREASED TIME WINDOW. THE EXANDED TIME WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION
COULD MEAN AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO A WORST CASE SCENARIO...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAYTIME MODEL RUNS
AS WE CONSIDER ISSING A WINTER STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
912 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.UPDATE...
AN AIR MASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. ALSO UPGRADED THE HARD
FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCHES AND WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNINGS FOR
TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN
CONUNDRUM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CAREFUL ASSESSMENT OF WINTRY
PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT AND
HIGHER EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THURSDAY NIGHT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLURRIES...SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN. A MORE COMPREHENSIVE
ANALYSIS WILL EMERGE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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cristina99
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well, if it ends up my office closes for Friday, then you can bet I will be up most of the night Thursday into Friday. My mother still doesn't believe it's going to snow. Be sure to take your pictures for Channel 11 - they mentioned that on the news this morning. :D
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wxman57
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE TX...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING WITH A 1045 MB HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. DESPITE
THE CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED VERY LITTLE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF SE TX WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL AFTN...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO JUST CONTINUE FROM NOW
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM 18Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. TWO PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...NOW SHOWING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP ON THURSDAY AFTN. THE SECOND CHANGE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAT IS PRESENT IN THE RECENT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SUGGESTS A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
WE ARE
PLACING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO RYE IN LIBERTY COUNTY. FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY...THROUGH GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS IS LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY AN
ICE EVENT AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SATISFY OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ICE THREAT AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH. HAVE CHOSEN TO START THE WATCH AT NOON ON THURSDAY
SINCE MODELS SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP THU AFTN AND UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THU
AFTN.

THE ONE THING THAT WILL DIFFERENTIATE THIS EVENT WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIP EVENTS WE SAW LAST YEAR IS THE HIGHER THREAT OF ICING
DEVELOPING ON THE ROADWAYS
. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EASILY RESULT IN A
TEMPERATURE DROP AT THE SFC WHEN THE PRECIP BEINGS. SFC TEMPS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE EVENTS LAST YEAR...SO EVEN IF
QPF TOTALS ARE LIGHT THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICY AND
HAZARDOUS.

35/41/46/38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 28 18 31 23 35 / 10 10 20 70 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 32 22 35 25 36 / 10 10 40 70 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 34 27 37 30 37 / 10 10 50 70 60
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srainhoutx
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This could get ugly fast with the power issues we saw this morning with no precip. I'd take so time and prepare for more possible outages. Heading out to refill the propane tanks...

Winter Storm Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM NOON CST
THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1144 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND SPREAD AREA
WIDE BY EARLY EVENING. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN TAPER OFF AROUND MID MORNING FRIDAY.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE FROM MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO RYE IN LIBERTY
COUNTY. OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY...AND MOST OF
GALVESTON...CHAMBERS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS COULD END UP A
PRIMARILY ICE EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT GLAZING ON ROADWAYS. TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
METRO HOUSTON AREA AND THE GALVESTON AREA AS WELL.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THIS MEANS THAT
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO ICE OVER THAN DURING THE
EVENTS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXPERIENCED LAST WINTER. ROADWAYS WILL
LIKELY BECOME ICY AND HAZARDOUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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clute28
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I've got a wintry mix..is it possible that snow could or will mix n with thus
ThunderMan
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School's (Not entire ISD's) are shutting down early here in Austin and Round Rock due to the power outages. Reports state that the power is out at many school's more than they are on.
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Paul
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West End of Galveston has been without power for 2 hours now.....this is not normal....freezing rain? you better go fill up those gas cans for your generator....they will roll outages tomorrow if they are doing it today...
HouTXmetro
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NWS has changed their tune and is only forcasting a Wintry Mix for Urban Houston....I'm starting to get bummed out now. Next thing you know it will just be a cold rain. crap, somebody talk me off the ledge because I want snow. Not a crippling ice storm...I'd rather just have rain if we not going to get snow.
Andrew
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Euro has precip starting tomm at noon
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ticka1
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Anyone having issues with cell phones? Mine keeps dropping calls like crazy.

My DD15 high school has been having numerous power outages - then it comes back on and goes back out.

I called to get my propane tank topped off - OMG - its going to COST me but at least my family will be warm with heater's blasting the next couple of days or weeks!!!!

Is there such thing as Winter Storm Warning or am I imagining it?
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You guys don't realize that whatever falls is going to freeze to the surfaces. This is aweful. Second, the sun is really going to blow the "staying below freezing today" talk. Temp jumped 3 degrees at Bush in the last hour.
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Paul
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BTW- this sucks....I can deal with snow....but freezing rain and power outages....this aint right...
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