February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Snowman
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look at the water vapor satellite. that edge of dry air is coming this way. but will the snow come right in front of that dry edge?
rnmm
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Just checked the NOAA website and they have taken out snow chances for the coast...I don't have the heart to tell the kids :(
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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cristina99
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Katdaddy wrote:Users browsing this forum: Baseballdude2915, CAK, charlotto, clute28, Cuda17, dac, djjordan, Ed Mahmoud, FBHoustonWeather, Google [Bot], hlewis, jdman, Katdaddy, kd52557, kitkat77, kwoodwx, kyzsl51, leahpeah, lonestar66, LylaB, lyndie32, matthouston, melly, Mr. T, MSN [Bot], radiogirltx, redneckweather, Rich, ripsaw, ronyan, SaintTaz, sambucol, shope2, SOFTBALLDAD, Ted, trlburns, txflagwaver, txsnowmaker, weatherguy425, Yahoo [Bot] and 98 guests
and what about me? :(
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Ptarmigan
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Lot of uncertainties. Looks like snow, sleet, and frozen rain are likely. The question is how much. Frozen rain I think is MUCH worse than snow because the roads and trees freeze up, which makes it dangerous to travel and power outages.
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srainhoutx
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cristina99 wrote:
Katdaddy wrote:Users browsing this forum: Baseballdude2915, CAK, charlotto, clute28, Cuda17, dac, djjordan, Ed Mahmoud, FBHoustonWeather, Google [Bot], hlewis, jdman, Katdaddy, kd52557, kitkat77, kwoodwx, kyzsl51, leahpeah, lonestar66, LylaB, lyndie32, matthouston, melly, Mr. T, MSN [Bot], radiogirltx, redneckweather, Rich, ripsaw, ronyan, SaintTaz, sambucol, shope2, SOFTBALLDAD, Ted, trlburns, txflagwaver, txsnowmaker, weatherguy425, Yahoo [Bot] and 98 guests
and what about me? :(
Just for you...

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Most users ever online was 176 on Thu Feb 03, 2011 2:38 pm

Registered users: ajurcat, Big O, BoonDog, CAK, cristina99, Cuda17, dac, djjordan, djmike, DMWTex, Ed Mahmoud, Google [Bot], helloitsb, HouTXmetro, jasons, jdman, jgreak, kwoodwx, leahpeah, lyndie32, Mark25, melly, MRG93415, Paul, Ptarmigan, Puzzled1, relic57, Rich, rnmm, SaintTaz, sean, seanatsk, Snowman, snowman65, sobeit, SOFTBALLDAD, srainhoutx, txsnowmaker, updraft, weatherguy425, weatherwave
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snowman65
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rnmm wrote:Just checked the NOAA website and they have taken out snow chances for the coast...I don't have the heart to tell the kids :(
This is why I don't tell the kids at all unless I say "hey kids, come look outside, it's snowing" ..
rnmm
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snowman65 wrote:
rnmm wrote:Just checked the NOAA website and they have taken out snow chances for the coast...I don't have the heart to tell the kids :(
This is why I don't tell the kids at all unless I say "hey kids, come look outside, it's snowing" ..

I didn't tell them it would or wouldn't snow....they heard it on the news LOL
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updraft
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Mr. T wrote:AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE


Now, everyone take a deep breath, have a nice dinner tonight, and come back to watch things unfold



While I appreciate your efforts Tyler, you gotta know the freak-out will continue for some .... patience is a virtue. And I rather enjoy some of the pessimism - it'll make it that much nicer when midnight roll's around ;)
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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snowman65
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No matter what happens, I took off work so I will be home in bed, relaxing. come rain, sleet, snow, freezing rain, ice, etc....It's only for half the day anyway...Should be a nice weekend.
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srainhoutx
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Lake Charles:

.DISCUSSION...
A WINTRY MIX WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING.

THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS IN PLACE...WITH INCOMING CARIBBEAN AIR
UPSLIDING THE POLAR AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES.

THE SLANTWISE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLIDING CARIBBEAN AIR IS
PHASING IN WITH THE MESO-CONVECTIVE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
IMPULSES ALOFT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT.

THE COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
SURFACE-LAYER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LISTED BELOW.

IF AT ALL POSSIBLE...STAY OFF THE ROADS.

ALSO...TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...I DID NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.



Dallas/Ft Worth:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WHICH HAS BEGUN TO EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SHEARED AS IT GETS
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN US BY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY HAS A POSITIVE TILT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AHEAD OF IT. THIS ORIENTATION IS USUALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR GETTING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER A POTENT VORT MAX
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WHICH THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON. THIS VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF
LATER THIS EVENING ORIENTING THE OVERALL FEATURE IN A MORE NEUTRAL
POSITION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE TO
SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A 15Z SOUNDING FROM COLLEGE STATION SHOWED A SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700MB WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THAT TO NEAR 500MB.
THE DRY LAYER FALLS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO WE WILL NEED
SOME MOISTENING FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN LATE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A NEAR SURFACE LAYER ALSO REMAINS
DRY SO INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE UNTIL
SATURATION OCCURS. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW IS THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT.

CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS AND ADVISORIES...AS OF NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE. SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR NORTH TEXAS...SO SMALL
AMOUNTS OF LIQUID QPF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE FLUFFY POWDERY TYPE OF SNOW EXPECTED. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO RESULTING IN AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE METROPLEX. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE SREF AND WRF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH CLUSTER BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AND EXPAND IT NORTH A ROW OF COUNTIES. WHILE THERE COULD BE
1 TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX...WILL FORGO ISSUING AN
ADVISORY NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POPS IN THOSE AREAS. THIS SNOW MAY
ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME TRACTION IN AREAS WHERE ICE REMAINS ON THE
ROAD.

ONE CONCERN REGARDING NEWEST MODEL DATA ARRIVING...LATEST RUN OF
THE NAM AND SOME SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN AREA
OF LIFT CLOSE TO A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THESE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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hlewis
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unome wrote:
hlewis wrote:ok, i'll ask again. can someone give me an estimated guess as to percentage of chance we will see anything in Wharton County??
here is NWS' estimated guess for Wharton

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =graphical

here is NWS' zone foreccast for Wharton County

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ226

they are both available to you here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/
Thank you so very much :)
Baseballdude2915
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rnmm wrote:Just checked the NOAA website and they have taken out snow chances for the coast...I don't have the heart to tell the kids :(
Still have them there. Even for Galveston a Wintry Mix.
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Mr. T
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DFW expanded winter weather advisories a row of counties northward for their update.

ONE CONCERN REGARDING NEWEST MODEL DATA ARRIVING...LATEST RUN OF
THE NAM AND SOME SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN AREA
OF LIFT CLOSE TO A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THESE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
rnmm
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Thank you Mr. T.
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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cristina99
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I feel a little better - I watched the noon forecast from David Paul - he showed the low still off the coast and he has it tracking north of Houston - as he said, with Houston on the wet/snowy said. So maybe some of us have been jumping the gun just a little. But, alas, we WILL just have to see. He seems pretty certain.
clute28
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How accruate is the nws forcast? They took snow out of the forcast for clute and lake jackson but 6 milles up the road angleton has a sleet/snow mix...how can that be?
MRG93415
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Did anyone catch the briefing from the Mayor and Judge Emmett regarding tomorrow and what they are doing? Just wondering if they said anything about downtown.
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djmike
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30.9 degrees here in Beaumont. Icicles now hanging from the house and ice is now frozen everywhere!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Badfish
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Stack of Oak firewood..........check
Rum and beer.....................check
HALF GALLON OF PAPPA'S SEAFOOD GUMBO.............CHECK!!

Bring IT!
Poltracker
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It has warmed up a couple of degrees here in Deer Park and North Pasadena area in the last couple of hours.
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