June Ends - Hottest on Record

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srainhoutx
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I see this caught the eye of HGX this morning and the GFS does suggest a possible trough in the Gulf albeit weak. Maybe a bit of a pattern change finally?

THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND BEGINS TO TREK IT
WESTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS AND WEAKER WITH ANY UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRENDS AND IF IT MEANS A BREAK FOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

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srainhoutx
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The Euro continues to advertise a bit of a pattern change around the first of June with a mid level low traversing across the Gulf from FL. The GFS is not as impressed...
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Ptarmigan
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Hopefully, we see rain come June and the trend is a wetter June and summer. 8-) :twisted:
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srainhoutx
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If the models are correct, a bonafide easterly summertime flow looks in the offing and may well bring seabreeze afternoon thundershowers. Fingers crossed for this pattern change as we transition into summer.
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srainhoutx
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A bit of a change today with the Euro. The 12Z run today suggests a mid/upper low will come NW out of the W Caribbean when it had shown that feature crossing FL heading W. That Upper Ridge looks mighty strong, so my hopes of a pattern change are somewhat tempered.

HPC:

THE PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BE MORE REMINISCENT OF JULY
THAN THE END OF MAY/BEGINNING OF JUNE....WHILE ACROSS THE WEST
SPRING/RAIN CHANCES EXTEND THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST AND TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S COMMONPLACE IN THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EARLY
ON...HIGHS BETWEEN 100 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN TEXAS BEFORE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXPANSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES VIRTUALLY
ELIMINATES THE THREAT OF DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MONDAY...PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OVER MEXICO WESTWARD AS WELL.
FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOUISIANA...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THIS PERIOD UNDER THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE TRACK FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PLAINS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD IN TANDEM INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES.
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

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05252011 12Z Euro 500mb Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif
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srainhoutx
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I'm cautiously optimistic regarding late next week with the Upper flow pattern. Even HGX has taken notice and the HPC does show troughing across the Caribbean...

BY THEN...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA. BOTH GENERALLY BRING A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...BOTH DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH THE GFS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH HIGHER LAYER MOISTURE
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...HELPS TO BRING AT LEAST SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO SE TX OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

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05262011 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
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wxman57
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10-day Euro is suggestive of rain on the lower TX coast, at least. But does the ridge over us break down enough to allow for any rain here? Canadian doesn't really agree with the Euro. GFS has a weak upper low moving out of the NW Caribbean into northern Mexico in 10 days, but it doesn't bring much rain to the TX coast.

I still suspect we may have to wait until August to get some significant rain.
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Wxman57:

I still suspect we may have to wait until August to get some significant rain.


Holy Moly...that long....
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Nice to see the trends of a pattern change that continued overnight. We may finally be rid of that cap!

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TAKE PLACE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BASICALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MS/OHIO VALLEYS BY
MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRATUS PATTERN...WITH MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AS WELL. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE 850-700
MB LAYER COOLING SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP.

EXPECT AN END TO THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...LIGHTER WINDS...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMPENSATING
FOR THE COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

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srainhoutx wrote:Nice to see the trends of a pattern change that continued overnight. We may finally be rid of that cap!

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TAKE PLACE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BASICALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MS/OHIO VALLEYS BY
MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRATUS PATTERN...WITH MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AS WELL. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE 850-700
MB LAYER COOLING SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP.

EXPECT AN END TO THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...LIGHTER WINDS...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMPENSATING
FOR THE COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

Let's this is true. I am sick of that cockroach ridge. :evil:
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srainhoutx
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There are 'hints' of a more significant chance of rainfall in the longer range of tropical origin. Eyes will need to shift in that direction and we already have a more detailed discussion ongoing in the Hurricane Central sub forum, for those that are interested...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=503&start=80
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS does hint at a TUTT low traversing the Gulf later next week. While it looks weak, the upper flow will be easterly and that is a change, if that model is correct. Any deeper tropical mischief looks buried in the W Caribbean through hour 168.
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05272011 gfs_500_144l.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro has come a bit stronger with the upper ridge and closer TX. I suspect those rain chances that we are longing for are dwindling. ~Sigh~

HPC:

MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM TENNESSEE TO TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD
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05272011 12Z Euro f168.gif
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro has come a bit stronger with the upper ridge and closer TX. I suspect those rain chances that we are longing for are dwindling. ~Sigh~

HPC:

MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM TENNESSEE TO TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD
I am sure it will change again. That's how the models are. ;)
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The high makes more sense. I'm leaning toward no rain for next week
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http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/05/wi ... ain-again/

SciGuy's May 27th utterly depressing blog about the drought, with the following statement from Impact Weather that brought a ray of hope

"Another factor that is in our favor is the La Niña condition over the tropical Pacific, which has been one of the key players in our extended dry spell, continues to quickly weaken. As a result our extended forecast for June and July calls for significantly more rainfall as tropical moisture surges back into the region. Even though we may be going out on a limb considering how dry it’s been, our latest projection for June calls for normal to possibly above normal rainfall in the Houston area."
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srainhoutx
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HGX offering some hope as the models are sniffing an upper trough developing across the Western Gulf...

00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAIN OUT ON THE
HORIZON. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
BEYOND DAY 7 WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS SOLUTION.

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I notice the upper air pattern change indicated by the GFS and Euro of late. I'm unsure how to go with my June forecast contest entry. Looks like I'll win the May contest, taking a 2 point lead going into the final 3 months of the contest. For June, we have to pick how many days IAH will reach 95F or more, tiebreakers will be what the hottest temperature recorded at IAH will be and on what date.

The number of 95F days at IAH in June has ranged from 2 in 2007 to 21 in 2009 in recent years. Max temp from 96 to 104. Best analog year (2008) had 20 95F deg days with a max of 99F. However, if the projected pattern change occurs, the number of 95F days may be well under 20. I also have to consider what the other 25-30 forecasters will do, as the contest is for the CLOSEST to the correct number of days. I won the May contest by having the lowest predicted 1-day rainfall total of all the forecasters, and verifying. Many of the forecasters will pick in the 20s for # of 95F days. I could go just a bit lower than what I think they'll forecast and have a wider possible winning range. What to do...?

Just plotted a GFS meteogram for the next 15 days and only 0.01" of rain is forecast in about 12 days. If it doesn't rain, then it may be hard to keep those temps under 95F.
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I don't think you are buying into a pattern change, are you wxman?
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I think the main problems for wxman57’s contest chance/choice are some hints for tropical mischief in the 7-10 day timeframe originating from the W Caribbean. Will it happen? Not sure, but the signals are there and if I was in a contest, I'd be cautious as well.
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