cisa wrote:It's easy to see that this storm has a mind of its own and who knows where it will land, but here's my question. If this were to make a LA landfall, is the thinking that ist woul continue northward, or east Tx or get pushed off east? This doesn't look to be a wind maker as much as a rainmaker, so I'm just wondering track once on shore depending on where landfall might be.
If it hits LA the motion should be NW as it finds the weakness or rounds the ridge as it pushes off to the east. That along with the projected orientation of the storms we wouldn't see much of anything here if that happened.
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...DISTURBANCE/LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
THE GREATEST DEAL ON UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
FCST ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ITS FUTURE TRACK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINED
CONSISTENT BUT THE NAM IS A CLEAR FASTER OUTLIER TO THE WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM AND THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST... AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN FL PENINSULA. THE ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF
MEAN AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HRS OR 00Z/26
WITH A LOW CENTER GENERALLY NEAR A 27N 90W... GIVE A FEW DEGREES.
AFTER 60 HRS... THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF MEAN REMAIN VERY CLOSE
WITH CONTINUED WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION AND THE SREF MEAN TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS. HPC PREFERS THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF MEAN
THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
INITIALLY REMAINING IN THE ERN QUAD OF THE SYSTEM.
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Hey Steve I think those HPC discos are a bit dated at times. Seems to be referring to earlier runs especially in the case of the Euro.
Hard to tell but the latest 12 Euro almost looks to have a WNW movement as it levels off near Corpus. If we get an upgrade at 4 (which is seeming likely) I think that the first track will be somewhere along the lower or mid Texas coast with some weird movements. Stall, move, stall, move.
Scott747 wrote:Hey Steve I think those HPC discos are a bit dated at times. Seems to be referring to earlier runs especially in the case of the Euro.
Hard to tell but the latest 12 Euro almost looks to have a WNW movement as it levels off near Corpus. If we get an upgrade at 4 (which is seeming likely) I think that the first track will be somewhere along the lower or mid Texas coast with some weird movements. Stall, move, stall, move.
Could be Scott. Here is the full text. I agree with the Lower/Middle Texas Coast thinking as well. This will be a sloppy monsoonal gyre through at least the first 60-72 hours then the upper air pattern may become a bit more conducive to development. We will see.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
VALID JUN 23/1200 UTC THRU JUN 27/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...
FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS DEPICT NO SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS
THAT APPEAR TO IMPACT THE UPCOMING FCST.
...SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT DIGGING THROUGH GREAT LAKES ON
SUN...
...SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OFF A MID TO UPPER
LOW MON/TUES...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS BLEND
NOT MUCH SPREAD ON THE RATHER DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY... AS A RATHER STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUN BEFORE
ARRIVING INTO THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY FOR MON. ALL OF THE
MODELS THEN CLOSE OFF THE UPPER DYNAMICS FOR A STACKED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT NEG TILTS MON INTO TUES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS
STRONG SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE SUN INTO MON FROM UPPER DYNAMICS DEPARTING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT... NO OTHER PIECE OF GUIDANCE CAPTURES SUCH A
STRONG CONSOLIDATED FEATURE AND SHOULD NOT BE FOLLOWED. THERE VERY
WELL COULD BE A WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT NOTHING LIKE
THE GFS. HPC SUGGESTS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND ON THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST MINUS THE GFS LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.
...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF PAC NW SUN/MON...
...UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES ON TUES...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM BLEND
OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR WITH LITTLE SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST/NW REMAINING MOSTLY STATIONARY ON
SUN... BEGIN TO LIFT/MOVE INTO WRN OR/WA LATE MON AND LIFT INTO
NRN WA/ID ON TUES. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY DRIVE THE STRONG THERMAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW AND NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD... WHILE FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS NRN WA/ID FOR TUES. HPC PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM.
...DISTURBANCE/LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
THE GREATEST DEAL ON UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
FCST ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ITS FUTURE TRACK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINED
CONSISTENT BUT THE NAM IS A CLEAR FASTER OUTLIER TO THE WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM AND THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST... AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN FL PENINSULA. THE ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF
MEAN AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HRS OR 00Z/26
WITH A LOW CENTER GENERALLY NEAR A 27N 90W... GIVE A FEW DEGREES.
AFTER 60 HRS... THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF MEAN REMAIN VERY CLOSE
WITH CONTINUED WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION AND THE SREF MEAN TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS. HPC PREFERS THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF MEAN
THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
INITIALLY REMAINING IN THE ERN QUAD OF THE SYSTEM.
Let me just tell y'all....go ahead & get prepared for whatever "it" ends up being. Whether it's just wind & rain, a depression, a storm or even a hurricane. Why, you ask? Well, it's because I have the world's WORST LUCK EVER!! My life defines Murphy's Law. There is always a black cloud hovering over me, no matter what I do. This Wednesday (hr 96 as predicted), the ribbon cutting/grand opening for my new store is scheduled to take place. Therefore, everyone get ready to get hammered in the Freeport/Surfside/Brazoria County area!! Lol!! I know we need the rain, so I welcome "it". My ribbon cutting can always be rescheduled. I just pray it's ONLY rain!! Thanks to everyone for your input & knowledge. I enjoy reading your updates!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 87°50'W (25.9N 87.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 313 miles (503 km) to the SSE (154°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 15kts (~ 17.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 17kts (From the SSE at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 340m (1,115ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 338m (1,109ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 17kts (~ 19.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:11:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:52:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z
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FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASON TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR THE FINAL DAY 3-7 FORECAST. IN FACT...OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN EVEN LESS
AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE FOR THE 00Z RUNS. THE 12Z GFS STILL
TRACKS A SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN
DEVELOPS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
DAY 4. THE 12Z UKMET ADJUSTED FASTER WITH ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...THE 12Z CMC NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT INTO THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COAST...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKED SIMILAR
TO ITS 00Z WITH A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK WESTWARD. GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM...THE NHC/HPC COORDINATED
TRACK FOR DAYS 3-7 STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY...WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE CONSIDERING THE BEST ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING.
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If Debby meanders west she'll have more time to organize and a CAT 1 or CAT 2 isn't out of the question. That westward path definitely has more potential system.
Did someone say tropical storm??? LOL Thought i'd come out from under my shell to peak into the ole weather forum. Looks like a busy end of weekend into this week. I hope she doesn't mind if I call her Debra!!!
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.
DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.
Well, we have Tropical Storm Debby! 50mph storm. They disagree with the American Model (GFS).
Whole TX coast is in the projected path. Has it making landfall at 70mph!
