Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[cristina99]

Just heard Mario and he said "we are moments away from Hurrican Ernesto." I've been reading the posts here and am trying to understand all of them. Several of you tend to still think it is going to come northward.....if so, now is the time to get your kit together. Seeing shoppers at Walmart today, you would think it was on our doorstep.

[Snowman]

well most people seem to think this storm will be speaking spanish actually. I personally am a bit skeptical given the strength of the storm. I think it is going to feel the weakness more than models are saying

[Belmer]

Not sure why Mario would say that. Hurricane Hunters are in the storm right now, showing no signs of even near hurricane force winds. As we have learned today, Ernesto looks impressive on satellite image, but in the core of it all, it is struggling. Of course, models did pick up on this that today would be one of the toughest days for Ernesto. It appears that it is already tracking south of all the 00Z model guidance, which would favor more of a Mexico landfall. Either way, the more south this tracks and IF it were to make that NW turn, it will go over more land in the Yucatan the longer is continues going West.

With that said, I believe tomorrow will be the real determining factor of the future of Ernesto. Should see him become a Hurricane by tomorrow afternoon into late tomorrow evening. Question is, how strong will Ernesto ramp up over in the Western Caribbean waters and will it start to feel the weakness in the Gulf and pull it northward? I say there is still lots of uncertainty with this storm and still bares watching, until 18-24 hours from now, hard to speculate what will happen.

[Portastorm]

As we're seeing from recon tonight, there's not even a west wind registered. The storm is not vertically aligned and racing much too fast westward for a hope of aligning. The GFS and Euro are looking good right now in terms of the intensity (or lack thereof) and the southern track.

[unome]

Terra/MODIS
2012/215
08/02/2012
14:20 UTC

Tropical Storm Ernesto (05L) approaching the Lesser Antilles

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 20.1km.jpg

you can make the image larger by selecting pixel size to the left of the screen

[South_Texas_Storms]

Globals, especially GFS and Euro, have been handling the very slow pace of strengthening well. I suspect 18Z GFS forecast may be close to what happens.

I agree. I don't think the 00z models are going to shift farther south though. I am thinking they will follow close to the eventual landfall of the 18z gfs.

I agree with both of yall. The 18z GFS track of Ernesto looks reasonable to me. I'm thinking it will make a second landfall in Mexico somewhere between Tampico and the Texas/Mexico border. Still plenty of time to watch this storm though.

[Andrew]

FWIW the NAM ( For people who don't know the NAM is not a tropical model so this is for entertainment purposes mainly):

[biggerbyte]

In its current state having to cross land to get into the BOC, unless he slows down considerably, there will not be enough time to get its act together and get pulled more northward. Two critical points now. What happens to it before and right after crossing said land.

[Andrew]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 050247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 72.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 050247
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STRONG CONVECTION...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1007 MB. SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT YET FULLY
SAMPLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
FOUND EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. HOWEVER...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH A SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED OF OVER 20 KT. A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 285/19...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
ADVISORY. THE REASON FOR THIS TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RESUME A
WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WHILE SOME SPREAD REMAINS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
REDUCED FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HR...MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO BETWEEN 72-96 HR AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 24 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME TO LIE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.

IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO
WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THE TRENDS DURING THE PAST 24 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH
ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48 HR. GIVE THE DIVERGENT
GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.3N 81.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 17.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew]

From the look of it the NWS looks pretty confused on what Ernesto is doing also.

[Belmer]

From the look of it the NWS looks pretty confused on what Ernesto is doing also.

I was about to say the same thing after reading that discussion.
Another thing to note, Ernesto is now moving WNW instead of due West. Could this be a new shift/change? Tomorrow we should get lots of questions answered...

[Rhodesk75]

UGH!!!! I've been watching the board & lurking, as I always do during Hurricane season and this one right here.....is driving me CRAZY!!! Can't do it anymore...this flip flop, up-down, speed up, slow down, West, North, stronger, weaker stuff is going to make me bang my head on the wall!! Lol!! I can honestly say though, Ernesto DEFINETLY got my family's attention at first though. My Grandma usually never "buys" it, but she had already made her hotel reservation to leave if needed (we are on the Freeport coast)! Looks like Mexico is most likely going to be the focus at this point. Of course, the way THIS thing has behaved so far, it could very possibly change again by morning. For now....I'M GOING TO BED!

[Snowman]

Ernesto looks ill. Perhaps I was wrong. The GFS looks to be correct with the Mexican landfall. Unless the storm undergoes some serious reorganization Ernesto will be speaking spanish

[gocuse22]

If this thing can get its act going...I am going with a landfall just north of brownsville

[South_Texas_Storms]

Well the 0z GFS was depressing. Barely makes it back into the BOC before landfalling probably as a weak Tropical Storm near Veracruz. I'm starting to think we won't get a drop of rain from Ernesto.

[Scott747]

0z Euro with a moderate shift in the BOC. Further N and more intense around Tampico.

Raises a slight eyebrow....

[biggerbyte]

Monday will be quite telling. That is the day that we should be able to say with any certainty as to whether Texas is in the all clear.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z ensembles (GFS/Euro) certainly show some interesting solutions and raise an eyebrow. While Ernesto has struggled and the low level circulation has 'out ran' the mid level vort and dry air at the lower levels have helped to keep Ernesto in check, there are strong suggestions that a slowing down is ahead in the NW Caribbean as a mid latitude trough dives SE into the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley. After Ernesto make land fall in the Yucatan and emerges into the Bay of Campeche is where things take a turn that could allow for improved conditions and a strengthening system that becomes vertically stacked and ramp up rather quickly. The HPC mentions the morning a feature in the NW flow dropping SE that may tug Ernesto further N. This may well be what the ensembles are 'sniffing' and cannot be discounted. The HPC even mentions a situation ala TS Debby with that U/L and should it occur, a major fly in the ointment may well be in the offing for a further NW to NNW track in the Western Gulf. We here in Texas know some strange things can happen with systems crossing the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and one can never discount a tropical system until it is inland and dead for good...

[biggerbyte]

Well said..