La Nina is forecast to be between Moderate and Strong

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

Climate Prediction Center and the forecasters in Australia latest data shows that the final straw of El Nino is here.Right now El nino 3.4 area is down to +0.8C.The number to watch is +0.5 as is the limit of El Nino and below that is Neutral.

Image

Image
Last edited by Cycloneye on Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:50 am, edited 5 times in total.
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

With reason JB is all over the 30 day SOI.It has been a tremendous run upwards only in a week.

Image
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

The subsurface waters tell the story of how El Nino is dying.Those cool waters are expanding and will go to the surface soon.

Image
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

Image
User avatar
desiredwxgd
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:30 pm
Location: TX/LA/Southern New England
Contact:

Cycloneye wrote:Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

Image

Steve, your thoughts?
JMS
SR. ENSC.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

desiredwxgd wrote:

Steve, your thoughts?
I'll post some thoughts around May 1st. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
desiredwxgd
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:30 pm
Location: TX/LA/Southern New England
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:
desiredwxgd wrote:

Steve, your thoughts?
I'll post some thoughts around May 1st. ;)

LOL, Sounds like JB for his paid clients. :lol:
JMS
SR. ENSC.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet. ;)
Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Cycloneye wrote:
Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?

Patience grasshopper. I suspect our Caribbean Neighbors will need to be watchful. :P
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

The latest subsurface graphic by ECMWF shows the warm waters waning while the cool waters expanding.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... me/xzmaps/
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

The Aussies have El Nino 3.4 at +0.6C only one number below is Neutral.

Image
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

The demise of El Nino is inevitable very soon. See the cool waters how they continue to expand.

Image
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

Here are all of the ENSO models in their April update. All are between Neutral and La Nina but some mantain Neutral longer in time than others.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

El Nino 3.4 down from +0.7C in last week's update to +0.5C in this week Climate Prediction Center update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Image
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

The Australians also are at 0.5.

Image
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

CPC has released the May 6th Update concerning El Nino...
A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

El Nino 3.4 area down to +0.3 on the weekly update by CPC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Which El Neenyo area becomes neutral between +/- 0.5º?


Because we're close to neutral already.



JB was giddy last night on the positive 90 day SOI...
Neutral is from +0.5 to -0.5.
Cycloneye
Posts: 52
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2010 8:18 am
Location: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Contact:

We can say good-bye to El Nino now as the Australians deliver the obituary.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Image

Image
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests