TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche

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srainhoutx
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Last vortex message before the mission ended...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 17:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:21:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°16'N 80°42'W (16.2667N 80.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (344 km) to the SSE (168°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 40kts (From the ENE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) which was observed 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) from the flight level center at 16:08:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)
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srainhoutx
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08022016 5 PM EDT TS Earl 203602W5_NL_sm.gif
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
closely follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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srainhoutx
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Tuesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

5th tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms in the western Caribbean Sea.

TS Earl poses no threat to the state of TX.

Discussion:
Airforce recon. mission this morning into 97L found a closed low level circulation and thus 97L was upgraded to TS Earl. Latest mission has found 54kt winds and the winds are set at 50mph for the 400pm advisory package. Earl continues to slow his forward motion compared to the last few days allowing the low level and mid level centers to align, but the overall organization of the system still is lacking.

Track:
Earl is entrenched on the south side of a mid level high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and this will steer the storm generally west into northern Belize or the southern part of the Yucatan within the next 24-36 hours. There after strong high pressure over the southern plains will direct Earl into the Bay of Campeche and then the eastern coast of MX well south of TX. Global model guidance is in good agreement on this track and the forecast confidence is above average.

Intensity:
Conditions over the forecast track area of the western Caribbean Sea look favorable for intensification and the current NHC forecast brings Earl to a 70mph TS before landfall. It is possible that Earl could be a minimal hurricane at landfall in northern Belize. Earl will weaken over the Yucatan and then begin to intensify over the Bay of Campeche. This amount of intensification over the Bay of Campeche will be directly related to what shape the system moves off the Yucatan in and how long it remains over the warm waters. At this time the current forecast maintains the system as a TS in the southern Gulf to landfall in MX.

Besides a possible increase in the SE swell along the TX coast this weekend, little to no impact is expected from TS Earl.
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For those interested...

Josh is tentatively scheduled to fly out to Belize tonight to cover Earl for the Weather Channel. Not expecting more than a strong TS or low end cane, but this area can always surprise.

If it's a go he will update on his facebook page.
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Earl has definitely slowed down as the environment has become conducive for further development. We wish Josh and his team another successful intercept.

. TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was
increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close
agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
of Campeche.

Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large
and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast
track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly
similar to the previous NHC forecast.

The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Looking at Earl, the circular shape suggest it is intensifying. I would not rule out Category 2 hurricane.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY IN SUMMARY TABLE

...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later
today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane
Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 031731
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating
Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl
is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize.
Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occurring
along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Another hurricane hunter heading to Earl:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 032031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...LARGE EARL HEADING FOR BELIZE...
...ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
will continue to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands during the
next few hours, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, however, Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it
reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Earl has become a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring along the
north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands. These conditions
will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next several
hours, and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and
Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 17.1°N 86.0°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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