TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche

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srainhoutx
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A very robust tropical wave is cross the Atlantic and should be INVEST 97L in the near future.
07282016 2 PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


2. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles south-southeast of
Cabo Verde. Some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development early next week when the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart



The GEFS Ensemble Members are beginning to raise an eyebrow regarding potential tropical development, particularly in the Western Caribbean Sea and that will need to be monitored very carefully as it could have effects on our sensible weather forecast later next week. Stay Tuned!
07282016 12Z 150 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_26.png
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

As mentioned this morning the tropical wave west of 96L was starting to look more concentrated and the morning global model runs show a little more support for the development of this wave than previous runs. NHC has included a 30% development region over the next 5 days from this feature as it moves generally W to WNW toward the eastern Caribbean Islands. Overall global model trends may be a bit fast in the forward motion and it is still questionable on just how much development is likely with the feature.

The CMC model solution is the much more intense outlier compared to the ECMWF and GFS guidance.

This is a good time to remind everyone that you should have a hurricane plan developed and ready to be used. Things can happen very quickly this time of year.
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jeff
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CMC 983mb hurricane into NE MX, GFS has a 1009mb low heading for S TX, and the EURO shows an open wave into the WC Gulf. Something to watch, but not be alarmed about.
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srainhoutx
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97L looks rather unimpressive this morning as it moves rapidly Westbound in a fast Easterly flow. It could bring showers and storms to the Antilles as it quickly moves along in a 30kt Easterly flow. No development is expected at this time with such a fast motion. IF the disturbance slows down later next week as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, there is some potential, albeit low that tropical cyclone genesis could occur. Being a week away, we will monitor for any changes as the Tropical Wave gets closer to our backyard.
07292016 8 AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at about 25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. However, this system
will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward
Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Some
additional development is possible during the next day or two before
the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the
central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven

07292016 1115Z avn-l.jpg
07292016 USA_latest.gif
07292016 06Z GEFS Ensembles 216 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_37.png
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07292016 2 PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Attachments
07292016 12Z 186 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png
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The 12Z ECMWF suggests 97L will begin to organize as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and possibly develop into a tropical cyclone as it nears S Texas.
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ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_9.png
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Interestingly the 12Z ECMWF Ensembles are latching on to the idea that 97L may find more hospitable conditions in the NW Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico as the disturbance arrives next Thursday into Friday.
Attachments
07292016 12Z ECMWF EPS 144 ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_watl_7.png
07292016 12Z ECMWF EPS 144 ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_watl_7.png
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srainhoutx
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two_atl_5d0 (1).png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is
poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any
development should be slow to occur. Regardless of development,
this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the
wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Attachments
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png
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srainhoutx
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two_atl_5d0 (2).png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph. While the associated shower
activity has increased since yesterday, any additional development
should be slow to occur due to the rapid motion of the system.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea beginning later today.
By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the
western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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srainhoutx
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From NWS Houston/Galveston this morning via Twitter:
07302016 HGX ConHjXDWAAAFCUB.jpg
NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston · 51m51 minutes ago
7AM Tropical outlook from @NHC_Atlantic tracking 2 tropical waves. Here what it means for SE TX. #houwx #txwx
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