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Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
worrybug

srainhoutx wrote:
cperk wrote:srainhoutx i learn something new every day i did not know you lived in the Keys.That had to be an interesting place to live during hurricane season.
It was certainly an experience leaving SE Texas for 5 years starting in June 2001 through April 2006 I will not forget, particularly during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons. While it is a beautiful location, living on a small Island makes you realize just how vulnerable you are to the beasts we call Hurricanes. That is why when moving back home to Houston, we chose to be well inland from the Gulf Coast... ;)
Curious:
Do you indeed have concerns about 99L coming to our area, srainhoutex? You mentioned in another thread that a series of tropical disturbances will come our way once next week's high moves the north on Thursday-Friday
Skyguy

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Srainhoutex, I'm kinda on Worrybug's side here. I've been noticing that the 12Z Euro shunts 99L or whatever it becomes into the Gulf of Mexico by way of Florida. That could be in response to that high pressure you mentioned for next week shifting northeast to the Carolinas. Originally, I had no worries about 99L threatening SE Texas, as I believed that atmospheric dynamics would deter that. But after seeing some recent model runs and chatting on line with my fellow storm enthusiasts, well, now I've got my doubts. Do you have anything useful to add?
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Skyguy wrote:https://icons.wunderground.com/data/ima ... smodel.gif

Srainhoutex, I'm kinda on Worrybug's side here. I've been noticing that the 12Z Euro shunts 99L or whatever it becomes into the Gulf of Mexico by way of Florida. That could be in response to that high pressure you mentioned for next week shifting northeast to the Carolinas. Originally, I had no worries about 99L threatening SE Texas, as I believed that atmospheric dynamics would deter that. But after seeing some recent model runs and chatting on line with my fellow storm enthusiasts, well, now I've got my doubts. Do you have anything useful to add?
No model shows a landfall to SE Texas and the ECMWF is a rather unusual scenario. Still no certainty in any solution right now. When/if this develops will only be the first key. The whole synoptic setup across the East Coast and western Atlantic is rather volatile right now and models are all over the place with a shortwave or ridging building. So I wouldn't concern yourself right now with any solution too much.
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Skyguy

Andrew wrote:I wouldn't concern yourself right now with any solution too much.
I am not concerned with the current model solutions, Andrew, as I find them to be of little help. But, on an unrelated thread, Srainhoutex did say that next week's high pressure will shift slightly to the north, thereby opening the corridor for some (lots?) of tropical moisture. Worrybug, actually, is the one concerned that this might be opening the door for 99L by next week, not so much me. What should I tell him?
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Skyguy wrote:
Andrew wrote:I wouldn't concern yourself right now with any solution too much.
I am not concerned with the current model solutions, Andrew, as I find them to be of little help. But, on an unrelated thread, Srainhoutex did say that next week's high pressure will shift slightly to the north, thereby opening the corridor for some (lots?) of tropical moisture. Worrybug, actually, is the one concerned that this might be opening the door for 99L by next week, not so much me. What should I tell him?

It's really too soon to say for sure unfortunately. Model solutions are all over the place and the early onset of westerlies has made that more difficult. With that said, I do think that ridging will shift to the northeast and allow for more moisture from the western part of the gulf.
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Skyguy

Andrew wrote:
Skyguy wrote:
Andrew wrote:I wouldn't concern yourself right now with any solution too much.
I am not concerned with the current model solutions, Andrew, as I find them to be of little help. But, on an unrelated thread, Srainhoutex did say that next week's high pressure will shift slightly to the north, thereby opening the corridor for some (lots?) of tropical moisture. Worrybug, actually, is the one concerned that this might be opening the door for 99L by next week, not so much me. What should I tell him?

It's really too soon to say for sure unfortunately. Model solutions are all over the place and the early onset of westerlies has made that more difficult. With that said, I do think that ridging will shift to the northeast and allow for more moisture from the western part of the gulf.

I hope the only thing we get from that is showers and thundershowers, just like we're getting now. Admittedly, I do have some scenarios of my own, regarding 99L but feel that they would be inappropriate to discuss now.
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Andrew wrote:
Skyguy wrote:
Andrew wrote:I wouldn't concern yourself right now with any solution too much.
I am not concerned with the current model solutions, Andrew, as I find them to be of little help. But, on an unrelated thread, Srainhoutex did say that next week's high pressure will shift slightly to the north, thereby opening the corridor for some (lots?) of tropical moisture. Worrybug, actually, is the one concerned that this might be opening the door for 99L by next week, not so much me. What should I tell him?

It's really too soon to say for sure unfortunately. Model solutions are all over the place and the early onset of westerlies has made that more difficult. With that said, I do think that ridging will shift to the northeast and allow for more moisture from the western part of the gulf.

I hope the only thing we get from that is showers and thundershowers, just like we're getting now. Admittedly, I do have some scenarios of my own, regarding 99L but feel that they would be inappropriate to discuss now.[/quote]


Most every scenario is still open, but yea I do agree that it is a wait and see game right now. I am still not sold on actual development even.
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srainhoutx wrote:Mimic clearly shows a lot of spin and moisture surrounding 99L as it moves generally West with little if any convection. Conditions look to become more favorable near Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas.

Not comparing this disturbance to anything close to Katrina, but I vividly remember while living in the Lower Keys in 2005, that the disturbance that would eventually spawn Katrina was surrounded by dry stable air into the Bahamas and then conditions improved and a Depression formed as it was heading generally W toward Florida and rapidly developed prior to the first landfall along the Miami Dade, Broward County line and dropped WSW over the Everglades into Florida Bay and it was off to the races with Rapid Intensification over the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Katrina August 2005
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB7t4KKV38U

The latest 12Z ECMWF does show a slowing disturbance that intensifies into a Tropical Cyclone crossing Florida and near Mobile in the long range, for what it's worth.

Image
The tropical wave that spawned Hurricane Katrina was not a very a large and impressive wave. Katrina came from the merging of Tropical Depression #10, which merged with another tropical wave. Katrina became a very large hurricane.
Skyguy

Ptarmigan wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Mimic clearly shows a lot of spin and moisture surrounding 99L as it moves generally West with little if any convection. Conditions look to become more favorable near Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas.

Not comparing this disturbance to anything close to Katrina, but I vividly remember while living in the Lower Keys in 2005, that the disturbance that would eventually spawn Katrina was surrounded by dry stable air into the Bahamas and then conditions improved and a Depression formed as it was heading generally W toward Florida and rapidly developed prior to the first landfall along the Miami Dade, Broward County line and dropped WSW over the Everglades into Florida Bay and it was off to the races with Rapid Intensification over the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Katrina August 2005
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB7t4KKV38U

The latest 12Z ECMWF does show a slowing disturbance that intensifies into a Tropical Cyclone crossing Florida and near Mobile in the long range, for what it's worth.

Image
The tropical wave that spawned Hurricane Katrina was not a very a large and impressive wave. Katrina came from the merging of Tropical Depression #10, which merged with another tropical wave. Katrina became a very large hurricane.
What can you tell me about the T-wave that spawned Hurricane Rita?
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Now the models have completely flipped and the ECMWF shows development while the GFS does not. Biggest issue though is synoptically the models are still having issues with the overall setup. While a northeast trough/shortwave doesn't look as likely as before, the ECMWF is now rotating a ULL from the northeast just off the coast of the Carolinas. This not only increases shear but also helps to break down ridging over the East Coast. Overall though, I am beginning to think that ridging might take hold over the east coast and the weakness may be rather short lived.
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srainhoutx
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Fiona has been down graded to a Depression as mid/upper level Westerly shear blows the tops of any convection near the center of circulation.

Image

90L looks to become a Tropical Depression at anytime during the next 24 hours.
08222016 8AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
And closer to the Lesser Antilles, 99L gained some convection near the surface circulation as it heads generally W to WNW and potentially more favorable conditions for tropical development later this week near Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas.

Image

The models continue to struggle with the eventual track of this tropical disturbance beyond the Bahamas. The latest 06Z GFS suggests a stronger SE Ridge and brings this tropical disturbance over the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf early next week. I caution everyone that until we actually see Tropical Cyclone Genesis, the computer models will struggle and swing wildly from run to run. That said the potential does exist for there to be a blocking SE Ridge in place which tends to favor a more Westerly track of this tropical disturbance, but as always the computer models typically cannot be trusted beyond 3 to 5 days out. We will continue to monitor the Tropics because we are marching to Peak Season that occurs around September 12th or so.
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How about that Euro run lol! It's way to far out but boy, that escalated quickly!
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srainhoutx
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90L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression # 7 in the far Eastern Atlantic...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient
organized convection to be considered a tropical depression.
Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still
consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around
a mean center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement
with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 275/16. The cyclone is on the south side of
a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it
should move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.
Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward
toward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
forecast track lies near the consensus models.

The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate
easterly vertical shear. This, combined with warm sea surface
temperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative
factor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping
around the west side of the circulation. On that basis that the
dry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening through 72 hours. After that time, arrested
development is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to
strong westerly vertical shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.7N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 23.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 26.8N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
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Andrew
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Crazy to see models go in the completely opposite direction. The ECMWF solution in general is rather interesting with high pressure setup over the northeast United States. Obviously this is a week to a week and a half out but that would not fair well for the gulf in general. Key factors here will be development (if any), how fast ridging breaks down/moves west, and any influence of a ULL in breaking down the ridge and increasing shear for 99L. Still have a lot of model disparity and run to run bias.
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A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.
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jeff wrote:A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.

Yea the only thing that I saw that could help it escape north would be a mix of the ULL paired with the TD Seven breaking down the ridge just enough to cause a weakness. Even then I think that would be rather unlikely. Unfortunately the Bahamas is forecasted to have pretty good conditions in about 5 days.
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jeff wrote:A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.
Jeff should the Houston/Galveston area be paying attention to 99L.
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18z GFS still Shows a lot of ridging over SE USA

Edit to add GFS Ensemble
500wh.conus.png
gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_27.png
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worrybug

cperk wrote:
jeff wrote:A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.
Jeff should the Houston/Galveston area be paying attention to 99L.
Yeah, jeff, should we be paying attention to 99L?
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Just for reference, the HWRF shows a strong hurricane NE of the Bahamas . GFDL barely has a tropical low approaching the Bahamas
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