Tracking the Tropics:

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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We have kin folk in the Fort Lauderdale area, so we will try to give you all updates as they warrant. I can say, we were just there the first into second week of August...
unome
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unome
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latest vortex - 939mb

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txflagwaver
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Son and his family is in Clermont, FL. Will post any info he provides
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srainhoutx
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Very dangerous Matthew nearing the Gulf Stream. Pressure continues to fall even with a potential Eyewall Replacement Cycle underway...


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121
kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until
the plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity
is kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall is
trying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some
weakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in
intensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida
that are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination
of land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
SHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend
of the consensus thereafter.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving
toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has
not changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic
during the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the
hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering
pattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes
highly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker
Matthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the
southwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global
models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx
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As promised, our Seabrook Hurricane Hunter sent some awesome pictures from Mission Teal 75 that departed at midnight and sampled Matthew into the morning hours of daylight as it passed East of Andros and was nearing Nassau. Credit goes to Kelly. Thanks for allowing me to share with the KHOU Weather Board.. ;)

Eyewall penetration via onboard radar:

Image

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Image

Image

Inside the eye after dawn:

Image

Image

Image

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Texaspirate11
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THANK YOU for posting these awesome pictures!@
True heroes!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Major hurricane Matthew pounding the FL east coast.

107mph wind gust recorded at a NASA Wind Tower on Cape Canaveral

Life threatening storm surge imminent for NE FL, GA, and SC

Discussion:
Coastal radars and data from multiple USAF missions into Matthew indicate the maximum sustained winds have weakened to 120mph. Multiple FL coastal sites have reported wind gusts over 80mph this morning…but the western eyewall has remained about 15 miles off the coast keeping those sustained 100-120mph just offshore (miles can make a big difference in this type of situation).Most recently Daytona Beach has been gusting to 67mph. There have been reports of structural damage to roofs in both Daytona Beach and Cape Canaveral where winds gusted to 82mph at the Kennedy Space Center. Cape Canaveral did go through the western eyewall of Matthew and it is possible winds gusted upwards of 110-115mph in that area.

Matthew’s large eye has tracked about 30 miles off the FL east coast overnight keeping the core of devastating winds in the western eyewall just offshore. As mentioned that western eyewall did pass over Cape Canaveral, but the FL east coast bends back westward moving northward toward St Augustine and Jacksonville. Matthew is moving toward the NNW and on this motion the center of the hurricane will remain 10-20 miles offshore, but the western eyewall may brush into the beach areas.

Track:
Matthew will continue to move NNE and then turn N and NE right along the NE FL, GA, and SC coasts today into Saturday. The center may come very close to the SC coast and could bring the damaging core winds into the SC coast on Saturday around Charleston. Matthew will then be blocked by high pressure building southward over the eastern US and turn toward the SE and S and eventually the SW and approach the northern Bahamas again in about 5 days. There remains much uncertainty in this part of the forecast and how Matthew may interact with hurricane Nicole to its east.

Intensity:
Matthew has weakened some overnight due to a large portion of the circulation moving over FL and a very slow eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eye shown yesterday on radar has finally dissipated and the outer eyewall has been slow to contract although some of the last few hours of radar frames show this might be starting to occur. It is unlikely at this point that Matthew will intensify and some slow weakening is more favored as more of the circulation moves inland over the SE US.

Impacts:

Main impacts will be life threatening storm surge in coastal NE FL, GA, and SC including Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston

Wind:
Compared to what that area was facing yesterday…looking much better with respect to wind impacts. Still expect 90-110mph wind gust along the coast which can certainly produce damage, but that is not the 130-140mph that were expected yesterday. It remains to be seen if the western eyewall actually crosses the coast and that is where sustained 80-100mph winds would be possible over the next several hours from Daytona Beach to Jacksonville. Tropical storm force winds are moving into the GA and SC coasts and inland as far west as Orlando where gusts to 48mph have been recorded.

Storm Surge:

Bigger threat is the potential for life threatening sea water rise of 7-12 feet above the ground along the NE FL coast all of coastal GA and nearly all of coastal SC.

Sunrise images this morning from working tower cameras on the FL east coast at Daytona Beach show the current storm surge has reached to the dune line on the barrier islands and is some places the dunes were breached by wave action. Water levels are rising at Jacksonville both at the beach front and within the St Johns River and also along the GA coast at Tybee Island, Brunswick, St Simon Island, and Savanah.

A hurricane approaching this portion of the US coast at this angle is rare and the ENE/E winds on the northern side of Matthew’s wind field is starting to drive the Atlantic Ocean into the concave shape of the coast from Jacksonville to Charleston which is going to result in the storm surge becoming trapped and being forced to rise vertically to higher heights than what has happened down the coast around West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral

Many of the coastal areas along the GA and SC coast are only 4-6 feet above sea level and a storm surge of the expected values will greatly impact these locations and spread inland along inlets, creeks, and rivers. Current indications suggest this may be a record storm surge for the Tybee Island and Savannah area and may rival hurricane Hugo in Charleston Harbor. Portions of Downtown Charleston may see water levels up to 3 ft and portions of Savannah near the Savannah River could see water levels up to 6-9 ft above the ground.

Storm Surge Inundation Map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Rainfall:
Rainfall will begin to become enhanced as Matthew moves northward toward the SC/NC coasts and begins to interact with an upper level jet stream. This will help to enhance lift of the tropical moisture and produce excessive rainfall of 8-15 inches along the SC/NC coast. This combined with the coastal storm surge flooding will likely lead to significant interface of the sea water and fresh water flooding over portions of the SC coast.

Remember that most deaths during the landfall of a tropical cyclone are for water either the storm surge or rainfall flooding.
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