Tracking the Tropics:

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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08062016 8 AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Earl, located well inland over Mexico west of Veracruz.

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible before the system moves inland over
the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers
just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. An area of
low pressure could form in the middle of next week between
Florida and Bermuda while the activity moves west-northwestward
and then northward over the Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

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srainhoutx
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While little organized tropical development is expected across the Atlantic Basic, The Western Pacific Basin may see a flurry of Tropical Cyclones as the Madden Julian Oscillation is much more conducive in assisting tropical development in that part of the World. As time goes on and with the potential of re curving Tropical Cyclones near/East of Japan, the eventual buckling of the jet stream pattern may have implications in our part of the World over the next week to 10 days. We will cover those poten6tial implications in our August Topic as the week moves along.
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srainhoutx wrote:While little organized tropical development is expected across the Atlantic Basic, The Western Pacific Basin may see a flurry of Tropical Cyclones as the Madden Julian Oscillation is much more conducive in assisting tropical development in that part of the World. As time goes on and with the potential of re curving Tropical Cyclones near/East of Japan, the eventual buckling of the jet stream pattern may have implications in our part of the World over the next week to 10 days. We will cover those poten6tial implications in our August Topic as the week moves along.
08072016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
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08072016 00Z 168 ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_8.png
November 2014 got cold because of Super Typhoon Nuri, which became a power extratropical storm over the Bering Sea. It caused a blocking pattern over Alaska, which is a negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).
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We are suppose to be in Destin Florida August 13-19. I see a lot of Rain for this week but what does the 13-19th look like for that area. Does the heavy rain event appear to be over by then
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Weatherdad wrote:We are suppose to be in Destin Florida August 13-19. I see a lot of Rain for this week but what does the 13-19th look like for that area. Does the heavy rain event appear to be over by then
Yes, this week will be quite rainy there. Next week looks a lot drier, but you'll still see daily showers/thunderstorms popping up across the Florida Panhandle. Pretty much normal for that area in August.
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Thank you for the reply wxman57
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The last six or so runs of the GFS has been hinting at some energy from the W Caribbean and then into the BoC in the longer range. Nothing really developed yet, but it will be getting into a model range here over the next few days that it may be something to keep an eye on. It's actually energy that I mentioned about a week ago that for a few runs blew up into a solid hurricane, though taking a much different track. So there is some history there with the model runs.

Of note - The GFS is notoriously bad about spinning up systems down that way....
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An impressive satellite image this evening with the moisture feeding into the rotation inland along the NW FLA coast. So glad this is not over the E Central or Central GOM with the current high SST's. Lots of energy content in the GOM.
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Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure has emerged over the extreme northern
Gulf of Mexico just south of Mobile, Alabama. This disturbance
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms over much of the north-central and northeastern
portions of the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system
is forecast to remain close to land and little or no development is
expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds. However, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible along portions of the northern and
northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z ECMWF suggests a potential Caribbean Cruiser in the extended range. Just in time for Peak Season? We will see.
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INVEST 98L has been designated by the National Hurricane Center for a strong tropical disturbance just West of the African Coast. The ECMWF has been rather suggestive this disturbance may eventually organize into a Tropical Cyclone as it nears the Leeward Islands in about 7 to 10 days.
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srainhoutx
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The reliable overnight Global guidance continues to advertise an active period developing across the Tropical Atlantic throughout the next 10 days.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 35.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 35.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
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Katdaddy
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Say hello to TS Fiona. Early this afternoon TD 6 was upgraded and is forecast to remain over the open Atlantic.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC......


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 37.8W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 37.8 West. Fiona is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
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Skyguy

Katdaddy wrote:Say hello to TS Fiona. Early this afternoon TD 6 was upgraded and is forecast to remain over the open Atlantic.
Hello to TS Fiona. LOL! :D :D :D :D :D
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ASCAT hit Fiona at 12Z. I see one 30kt wind well NW of the center. No evidence that Fiona is anything but a depression, regardless of what Dvorak says. Fiona will continue to struggle with wind shear and dry air before weakening to a remnant low in 3-4 days. No threat to the Caribbean or the Gulf (or East U.S. Coast).

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TS Fiona remains at 45MPH and continues to head NW into the open Atlantic. Invest 99L is SW of the Cape Verdes. The NHC as Invest 99L at code orange with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Of interest is the potential track that heads toward the the Lesser Antilles. In addition the TW just off Africa has a slight chance of development during the next 5 days.
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Katdaddy wrote:TS Fiona remains at 45MPH and continues to head NW into the open Atlantic. Invest 99L is SW of the Cape Verdes. The NHC as Invest 99L at code orange with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Of interest is the potential track that heads toward the the Lesser Antilles. In addition the TW just off Africa has a slight chance of development during the next 5 days.
I hate to be an alarmist, Katdaddy, but I've been talking to some fellow hobby mets, and they're not buying into the HWRF's scenario where Invest 99L curves west-northwest and northwest in the general direction of Florida. The high over it is just too strong to permit that. In their opinion, 99L is something that people from Corpus Christi to Miami will have to watch closely. Unfortunately, that includes Houston. Of course, this is speculation right now, but......


Your move, Katdaddy.
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Where does he say anything about the track of 99l other than it potentially tracking towards the Lesser Antilles?

Might want to mention to your fellow 'hobby mets' that the HWRF has only ran once for 99l and also only goes out to 126 hrs, which not only puts it no where near Florida, but doesn't even it put it in the Caribbean. ;)
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Skyguy wrote:
Katdaddy wrote:TS Fiona remains at 45MPH and continues to head NW into the open Atlantic. Invest 99L is SW of the Cape Verdes. The NHC as Invest 99L at code orange with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Of interest is the potential track that heads toward the the Lesser Antilles. In addition the TW just off Africa has a slight chance of development during the next 5 days.
I hate to be an alarmist, Katdaddy, but I've been talking to some fellow hobby mets, and they're not buying into the HWRF's scenario where Invest 99L curves west-northwest and northwest in the general direction of Florida. The high over it is just too strong to permit that. In their opinion, 99L is something that people from Corpus Christi to Miami will have to watch closely. Unfortunately, that includes Houston. Of course, this is speculation right now, but......


Your move, Katdaddy.

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