ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Paleo/ ... n_2000.pdf
It is a study from 1998.
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No catastrophic hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity has made landfall in the Western Lake area during the last 130 yr of documentary record, but the sediment stratigraphic data suggest that 12 such hurricanes directly struck Western Lake during the past 3400 yr, yielding a long-term frequency of approximately one hurricane every 280 yr. Therefore, the Florida Panhandle on average has a 0.36% probability of being struck by a catastrophic hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity in any particular year. The Western Lake data demonstrate that, like other paleoclimatic proxy records that reveal “warm climate surprises” (Overpeck, 1996), paleohurricane records from the past century or even the past millennium are not long enough to capture the full range of variability of catastrophic hurricane activities inherent in the Holocene climatic regime. If future climatic changes, whether or not related to the anticipated greenhouse warming, lead to a return of a “hyperactive” hurricane regime characteristic of the first millennium A.D., then the northeastern Gulf Coast is expected to experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of strikes by catastrophic hurricanes.