2019 Hurricane Season Discussions

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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May 1st marks the one month countdown to the beginning of another Hurricane Season. There is an area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas's that the Nation Hurricane Center is monitoring. This disturbance poses no threat to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast at this time.


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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05012019 Disturbance 1 two_atl_5d0.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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It's that time of year, folks. We are refocusing our messaging this year regarding Hurricane Season and NHC Director Ken Graham assured all of our partners at the 2019 National Tropical Weather Conference that his messaging would reflect saving lives and property. Ken has a strong interpersonal focus as Director and is committed to the mission.

Let this serve as a reminder that the forecast track as become fairly reliable, but intensity is still lacking in forecast skill and preplanning is essential before a storm enters the Gulf. The current plans require a 72 hour lead time to evacuate our Storm Surge Flood Zones in the Houston/Galveston Region.


Daniel Brown‏ @DBrownie23

NHC Director Ken Graham - All four U.S. landfalling category 5 hurricanes were tropical storms 3 days before landfall. Need to be ready for rapidly strengthening/developing storms. #GHC2019 #HurricanePrep #HurricaneStrong

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srainhoutx
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As our 2019 Hurricane nears, here are the names for the North Atlantic Basin:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

We have an area of disturbed weather (INVEST 90L) that may become Andrea over the next week. It poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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05192019 8 AM two_atl_5d0.png
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srainhoutx
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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms in the Western Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda...

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained
winds of about 40 mph. A special advisory will be issued on
Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Belmer
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NOAA has come out with their 2019 Hurricane Forecast. Predicting near-normal season. More info in link -

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season
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Blake
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srainhoutx
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I see that Global El Nino chances for this year have dwindled to almost nothing. I believe a neutral ENSO state is likely and we may have to deal with a slightly above average 2019 Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic. There are other factors (Hemispheric Patterns/Oscillations) to consider making the ability to "predict" what this Hurricane Season may bring a bit more challenging in my opinion. I believe the Main Development Region could be a bit less active while closer to home where we live could be a bit more active. Remember it only takes one to make for a very bad season!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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30 percent in boc
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Euro ensembles very interesting 12z

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html
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Katdaddy
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Yep its that time of year. Something I do not see very often from the NHC. A trough of low pressure well inland over W KY, TN, and MS has been flagged by the NHC this afternoon. Potential development will be possible as this trough moves SE into the NE GOM at the end of the upcoming week. We have plenty of time to watch what could become TS Barry through next week. No need for concern during the next several days. Again this is a reminder for everyone to be weather aware and prepared when it comes to the tropics. As I have said many times and we all know “It only takes 1 to make it an active Hurricane Season”.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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