Remnants of Hermine

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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wxman57
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There is a weak frontal boundary offshore, but I don't see any sign of a surface circulation. It's something to keep an eye on, as such features can definitely develop into storms with little warning.

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ticka1
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Wxman57 - I know you are watching for tropical development - its your job - but will this feature out in the GOM will it increase our chance for rain in the upcoming week/weekend?
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wxman57
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ticka1 wrote:Wxman57 - I know you are watching for tropical development - its your job - but will this feature out in the GOM will it increase our chance for rain in the upcoming week/weekend?
Good chance of that if it tracks far enough north into the Texas coast Thu/Fri. Building high over the eastern U.S. should result in deeper onshore flow here by then, too. Maybe more afternoon storms if nothing else. I got a good drenching last evening in Westbury.
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Can you Post a link to those Models??? Thanks!!!
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srainhoutx
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Canadian...

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NAM...

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Also for what it is worth the Euro is showing a weak low pressure off the Lower TX Coast as well on Saturday.

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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AndrewLozeau
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Thank you so much! You all are awsome on this forum!!!!
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srainhoutx
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Also of note is the amount of disturbed weather across the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf. Also note what appears to be a TD/TS in the Eastern Caribbean...


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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Rip76
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If anything were to develop in the short term, i'm looking at about 26N and 93W.

Probabaly way off.
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srainhoutx
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18Z NAM develops a low off the TX Coast in 42 hours.

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HGX:

A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RATHER POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO TAKE AIM ON THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
SAT/SUN. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CAN SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOICATED
WEAKNESS ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF/CAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING THE PRECIP TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHILE
THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE
ECMWF/CAN HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND PREFER THE MORE
STABLE GFS. THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THR COAST. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT. COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAIN AT THE COAST AND LESS THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN WELL INLAND. WHICHEVER SUITE OF MODELS IS
CORRECT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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This something we are going to watch very carefully for any development and the Nam just strands it out in the ocean for a while which could be a flooding issue:

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