2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[djjordan]

That would be a good sign for development too..... I'm pretty sure the ATL season is about to heat up significantly.

[srainhoutx]

It has been renumbered to 91L

Time for a new Topic, then rnmm. You do the Honors...

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[rnmm]

It has been renumbered to 91L

Time for a new Topic, then rnmm. You do the Honors...

BEGIN
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invest_al912011.invest
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201107290409
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thank you Srain. I added it but this weather enthusiast girl has no idea on its exact location so I just put it as 91L

[srainhoutx]

It has been renumbered to 91L

Time for a new Topic, then rnmm. You do the Honors...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107290409
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thank you Srain. I added it but this weather enthusiast girl has no idea on its exact location so I just put it as 91L

Central Atlantic for the time being will do...

[srainhoutx]

The next disturbance rolling off Africa looks to be the threat behind a future Emily. I'd not be surprised to see Franklin in the not to distant future...

[vbhoutex]

That looks like one of the strongest, if not the strongest TW I have ever seen come off of Africa. Definitely bears watching. Can we say hello Cape Verde season?

[Andrew]

That looks like one of the strongest, if not the strongest TW I have ever seen come off of Africa. Definitely bears watching. Can we say hello Cape Verde season?

Agreed! Things have really ramped up fast lately and I am afraid things won't slow down for a while. This wave should get a Two mention in the next day or so I would expect.

[Ptarmigan]

That looks like one of the strongest, if not the strongest TW I have ever seen come off of Africa. Definitely bears watching. Can we say hello Cape Verde season?

Future Franklin.

[srainhoutx]

CSU Tropical Update for August is out...

The ENSO-related warming trend in the tropical Pacific has abated, and we are reasonably confident that we will have near-neutral conditions for the remainder of this year’s hurricane season. The combination of the neutral tropical Pacific along with continued warm sea surface temperature anomalies and unusually low sea level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic will likely lead to a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season.

We are also now issuing a separate hurricane forecast for activity in the Caribbean Basin. This forecast is based on a statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 60 years of past data. This model is also predicting a very active season for the Caribbean.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2011.pdf

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has a robust disturbance heading W across the Atlantic today. That wave is currently E of the African Coast will to splash into the Eastern Atlantic in a couple of days...

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon Final Update snip...

EASTWARD OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF
CMC/ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEST MOVING AFRICAN WAVES LATE PERIOD AND
BEYOND WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS TIMING ON THESE
IMPULSES BUT NO SPECIFIC WAVE CAN BE KEYED ON AT THIS TIME.

[srainhoutx]

The waves traversing Africa are becoming a bit more active. The first in a series of strong disturbances will splash into the Eastern Atlantic in a day or so followed by a couple of stronger waves. SAL is slowly subsiding across the Eastern Atlantic and the Azores Ridge is becoming elongated. Tropic cyclone genesis charts continue to advertise activity increasing as we head deeper into August and September...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a disturbance heading W across the Atlantic. We'll need to watch this area as it nears the Caribbean Islands for any future Franklin development. Also note another disturbance is near the Cape Verde Islands as well...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a developing storm in the 6-10 day time frame crossing the Atlantic...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Ukmet also depicts a storm in the Atlantic...

[wxman57]

Euro appears to be developing a different system, as the GFS has a storm near the NE Caribbean at 240 hrs but the Euro has it at 45W, 3-4 days behind the GFS's storm. The GFS storm moves off the west coast of Africa Sunday, the Euro's 3-4 days after Sunday. Typical activity, model and otherwise for the second week of August. It's going to heat up soon out there.

[srainhoutx]

SYNOPSIS 2011080500

P14L
10N, 8W
700 hPa

Convective burst just ending at 00Z.

ECMWF: Like the other models, ECMWF depicts a relatively strong pouch coming off of Africa. However, unlike all the other models, ECMWF is weak at the beginning and end of the period. The analysis depicts a monsoon trof with several small OW maxima, of which, the one that becomes P14L is not the most intense. After a few days, the eventually strong pouch stops its westward motion (interaction with the next wave to the east?), and begins to weaken, to the point of dissipation after 108 hours.

GFS: The first strong pouch to come off of Africa in a long time (first of the season?). Intensifies and maintains an easily-tracked pouch for all five days, although the OW values indicate some weakening after Day 3.

UKMET: Similar to GFS.

NOGAPS: Jumps "off of Africa" between 12 and 24 hours, then becomes almost stationary as an ITCZ eddy. Eventually, it moves slowly to the west.

HWRF-GEN: Fastest phase speed. Except for the common, small-scale, double CL-trof intersections within the large circulation while over Africa near the beginning of the forecast, P14L is a large pouch with a distinct center position.

ECMWF -4.4 v700 108h
GFS -5.9 v700 120h
UKMET -5.4 v700 120h
NOGAPS -3.9 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.1 v700 120h

[srainhoutx]

09Z ASCAT suggests rotation just of the African Coast. I will not be surprised to see some attention from the NHC if convection can continue today...

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Juan, PR in afternoon update:

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggest low pressure will dominate the MDR in the days ahead. That guidance also suggests strong ridging from the Azores into the Western Atlantic. My hunch is this will be a long track slow developing disturbance that could see a better opportunity, organization wise, as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. We will see.