2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Since 2010 Hurricane Season is winding down. We have to wonder what 2011 Hurricane Season will be like. Joe Bastardi at AccuWeather thinks 2011 will be active. His analog seasons are 1996, 1999, and 2008. Here is what these seasons were like.

1996
14/10/6
% Hurricane=69.2%
% Major Hurricane=46.2%
ACE=166
ACE/Storm=12.8

Notable Storms
Fran
Hortense

1999
12/8/5
% Hurricane=66.7%
% Major Hurricane=41.7%
ACE=177
ACE/Storm=14.8

Floyd
TD11

2008
16/8/5
% Hurricane=50%
% Major Hurricane=31.3%
ACE=144
ACE/Storm=9

Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike

Average Prediction Based On Analog For 2011
14/9/5
ACE=162
% Hurricane=62%
% Major Hurricane=39.7%
ACE/Storm=12.2

2011 looks to be an above average season.

Average 1870-2010
9/5/2
ACE=91
% Hurricane=58.9%
% Major Hurricane=21.5%
ACE/Storm=9.8


1996, 1999, and 2008 were very active and devastating years.

I wonder about the Atlantic water by 2011. Could it be warmer than 2010? La Nina is expected to stay to Summer of 2011.

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Ptarmigan
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Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray are predicting an active 2011 Hurricane Season, 17/9/5. The analogs for 2011 are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008. 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008 were bad for Texas, especially for Upper Texas Coast.

1961-Carla
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
1999-Bret
2008-Ike

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2010.pdf
Andrew
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Ptarmigan wrote:Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray are predicting an active 2011 Hurricane Season, 17/9/5. The analogs for 2011 are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008. 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008 were bad for Texas, especially for Upper Texas Coast.

1961-Carla
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
1999-Bret
2008-Ike

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2010.pdf
Yea with La Nina expected to decrease, it should be interesting for us here in the Western Gulf.
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Ptarmigan
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I will take a jab at 2011 Season, 16/9/6.
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Paul
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Whoa PT...6 majors? ouch.....I will go 5....preliminary numbers 17/8/5
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Ptarmigan
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Paul wrote:Whoa PT...6 majors? ouch.....I will go 5....preliminary numbers 17/8/5
1995 had 5 major hurricanes, while 1996 had 6 major hurricanes. My reasoning for that.
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sambucol
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18/7/8 prelim guess
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Ptarmigan
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The ECMWF is predicting that the pressure will be lower than normal come hurricane season, especially over America and MDR. That may not bode well for us.
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It will be very interesting to follow the next few months forecasts to see if they continue to have lower pressures. Agree that if those forecasts come to reallity,then the Caribbean may recieve some not welcomed visitors.
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wxman57
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That was the February 2010 forecast up above, Ptarmigin. Here's the February 2011 forecast. It has changed significantly from the January outlook for MJJ in that it's now forecasting normal pressures in the Subtropical and Tropical Atlantic and lower pressures over the U.S. That could mean a stronger Bermuda High and less storms recurving east of the U.S. Here's the current JJA forecast:

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