Irene Now a TS: Over New York City

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

SYNOPSIS 2011081800

P17L
14N, 34W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch. Steady intensity for about four days, followed by intensification near Puerto Rico. This intensification time is delayed compared to yesterday's forecast.

GFS: Consistent story: Pouch that begins intensifying on 20 August. The secondary pouch to the east of P17L is no longer depicted, which is consistent with GFS previous forecasts that it would be dissipated by today.

UKMET: Intensifies after about three days, which, like ECMWF, is delayed compared to yesterday's forecast.

NOGAPS: Unlike yesterday, NOGAPS now depicts just one pouch for most of the forecast. Steady OW values.

HWRF-GEN: Consistent story: Smooth, generally westward track that turns north of west toward Puerto Rico. Steady intensity for now only one day, with intensification starting on 19 August.


ECMWF -9.7 v700 120h
GFS -9.8 v700 120h
UKMET -9.7 v700 120h
NOGAPS -7.5 v700 120h
HWGEN -9.1 v700 120h
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

SAL among other issues should keep 97L in check for the next several days. As it nears the Islands, the model continue to advertise a formidable storm if it can get going...
Attachments
08182011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP168.gif
08182011 12Z GFS 12zgfs500mbstreamlinestropical168.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

You mean the Rita II it showed?

We'll see...but it is about time the ridge finally gave-in. Almost September by the end of the run...
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Boom goes the dynamite! Maybe this will livin this board up a little.


Image
vbhoutex
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:19 pm
Location: Houston, TX.-Spring Branch
Contact:

What makes this worrisome is the fact that the ridge is expected to retrograde West around that time or a little before. That would/should open up the GOM for business if it happens. Way too far out to be worried, but close enough that it has at least one of my eyes on it.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

06Z tracks...
Attachments
08192011 06Z 97L al972011.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The ensembles are actually in fairly close agreement and suggest the Islands of Hispaniola and Cuba may well come into play. We are still a couple of days out regarding any real development, so speculation re: intensity is a crap shoot at best. What is interesting and has evolved over the past several days with both the operational and ensemble guidance is a break in the ridge that has plagued the Southern Plains since late May. 97L is still contending with dry air and that issue will need to be ironed out before TC genesis can occur, IMO...
Attachments
08192011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical192.gif
08192011 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP192.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

drought relief would be wonderful, I'm hoping for it as well - however, being without power in this heat, unless temps lower drastically, would totally bite the big one... could be deadly for a lot of people :cry:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I can see a wish cast scenario for this helping the Texas drought, looking at the Day 7 and 8 Euro ensembles, the trough is a little weaker than forecast, it gets pulled into the Gulf but not caught, and then proceeds West at the latitude of North Mexico or Deep South Texas under the ridge, and beta cancels tendency to go WSW, but with the none of the reliable modelling showing that except the 18Z GFS, it seems a fairly unlikely solution.

But I remain 1/264th's glass full on drought relief from 97L.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

HPC afternoon Update:

12Z MODELS:

THE 12Z GFS HAS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU DAY 6 OVER THE
CONUS...WITH THE 12Z RUN GOING BACK TO A MORE PRONOUNCED OH VLY
SHORTWAVE BY THU DAY 6 AFTER BACKING OFF FROM IT IN ITS 06Z RUN.
THE REST OF THE NEW 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU TUE
DAY 4. BEYOND THAT TIME...SOME SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS...WHICH
IS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH WESTERLY FLOW FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM...AND HOW MUCH TROFFING OCCURS IN THE
DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROF ALONG 80W. ACTUALLY THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS
NOT TOO BAD THAT A TROF OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE WILL CROSS SE CANADA
DAY 6. THE TRICKIER PART IS HOW MUCH OF A TROF OR SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS S OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL INTO THE SERN CONUS. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY HERE REMAINS HIGH...IT CAN AT LEAST BE SAID THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS IS RAISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SE STATES DAY 7 AS THE
MAIN TROF FARTHER N LIFTS OUT...BUT LEAVING SOME KIND OF WEAK TROF
OR SHEAR AXIS.

IN THE TROPICS...WE ARE STILL MONITORING NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE USED THEIR
COORDINATED POINTS.
Attachments
08192011 18Z 5 Day Forcast 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests