Irene Now a TS: Over New York City

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srainhoutx
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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srainhoutx
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SYNOPSIS 2011081800

P17L
14N, 34W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch. Steady intensity for about four days, followed by intensification near Puerto Rico. This intensification time is delayed compared to yesterday's forecast.

GFS: Consistent story: Pouch that begins intensifying on 20 August. The secondary pouch to the east of P17L is no longer depicted, which is consistent with GFS previous forecasts that it would be dissipated by today.

UKMET: Intensifies after about three days, which, like ECMWF, is delayed compared to yesterday's forecast.

NOGAPS: Unlike yesterday, NOGAPS now depicts just one pouch for most of the forecast. Steady OW values.

HWRF-GEN: Consistent story: Smooth, generally westward track that turns north of west toward Puerto Rico. Steady intensity for now only one day, with intensification starting on 19 August.


ECMWF -9.7 v700 120h
GFS -9.8 v700 120h
UKMET -9.7 v700 120h
NOGAPS -7.5 v700 120h
HWGEN -9.1 v700 120h
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srainhoutx
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SAL among other issues should keep 97L in check for the next several days. As it nears the Islands, the model continue to advertise a formidable storm if it can get going...
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08182011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP168.gif
08182011 12Z GFS 12zgfs500mbstreamlinestropical168.gif
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You mean the Rita II it showed?

We'll see...but it is about time the ridge finally gave-in. Almost September by the end of the run...
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Boom goes the dynamite! Maybe this will livin this board up a little.


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What makes this worrisome is the fact that the ridge is expected to retrograde West around that time or a little before. That would/should open up the GOM for business if it happens. Way too far out to be worried, but close enough that it has at least one of my eyes on it.
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06Z tracks...
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08192011 06Z 97L al972011.png
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srainhoutx
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The ensembles are actually in fairly close agreement and suggest the Islands of Hispaniola and Cuba may well come into play. We are still a couple of days out regarding any real development, so speculation re: intensity is a crap shoot at best. What is interesting and has evolved over the past several days with both the operational and ensemble guidance is a break in the ridge that has plagued the Southern Plains since late May. 97L is still contending with dry air and that issue will need to be ironed out before TC genesis can occur, IMO...
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08192011 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical192.gif
08192011 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP192.gif
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drought relief would be wonderful, I'm hoping for it as well - however, being without power in this heat, unless temps lower drastically, would totally bite the big one... could be deadly for a lot of people :cry:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I can see a wish cast scenario for this helping the Texas drought, looking at the Day 7 and 8 Euro ensembles, the trough is a little weaker than forecast, it gets pulled into the Gulf but not caught, and then proceeds West at the latitude of North Mexico or Deep South Texas under the ridge, and beta cancels tendency to go WSW, but with the none of the reliable modelling showing that except the 18Z GFS, it seems a fairly unlikely solution.

But I remain 1/264th's glass full on drought relief from 97L.
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HPC afternoon Update:

12Z MODELS:

THE 12Z GFS HAS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU DAY 6 OVER THE
CONUS...WITH THE 12Z RUN GOING BACK TO A MORE PRONOUNCED OH VLY
SHORTWAVE BY THU DAY 6 AFTER BACKING OFF FROM IT IN ITS 06Z RUN.
THE REST OF THE NEW 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU TUE
DAY 4. BEYOND THAT TIME...SOME SOLUTION DIVERGENCE BEGINS...WHICH
IS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH WESTERLY FLOW FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM...AND HOW MUCH TROFFING OCCURS IN THE
DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROF ALONG 80W. ACTUALLY THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS
NOT TOO BAD THAT A TROF OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE WILL CROSS SE CANADA
DAY 6. THE TRICKIER PART IS HOW MUCH OF A TROF OR SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS S OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL INTO THE SERN CONUS. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY HERE REMAINS HIGH...IT CAN AT LEAST BE SAID THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS IS RAISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SE STATES DAY 7 AS THE
MAIN TROF FARTHER N LIFTS OUT...BUT LEAVING SOME KIND OF WEAK TROF
OR SHEAR AXIS.

IN THE TROPICS...WE ARE STILL MONITORING NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE USED THEIR
COORDINATED POINTS.
Attachments
08192011 18Z 5 Day Forcast 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z ensembles continue to paint an interesting scenario for those along the Northern Gulf Coast...
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08192011 12Z Gfs Ensembles 12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical240.gif
08192011 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP240.gif
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97L will be watched over the next week. The ridge is very strong currently which will keep the Upper TX Coast protected. We need rain but not a hurricane.
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1800Z GFS shows a major hurricane again near Florida. Anything can change. It could end up here. Everyone needs to keep an eye.
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The water is quite warm in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It got water right there if conditions are right.
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Rough 00Z Recap:

GFS=Greater Antilles/S FL
Euro=Greater Antilles/S FL
HWRF=Greater Antilles
CMC=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel
UKMET=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel
GFDL= Little development S of Greater Antilles
GFS ENS=S of Hispaniola/crossing Cuba/Dry Tortugas/W Coast FL
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12Z...
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08202011 12Z 97L al972011.png
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srainhoutx
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HPC afternoon update:

00Z/20 MODELS HAD TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PRIOR FORECASTS
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. 12Z MODELS DETERMINISTIC MODELS RANGE FROM
TRACKING THE SYS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS PER THE CANADIAN/UKMET...TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE ALONG THE E COAST OF FL AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE USED THE LATEST COORDINATION POINTS AGREED UPON FROM
THE NHC AND EXTRAPOLATE ONE DAY FORWARD FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT.
THIS WILL PLACE IT OFF THE W COAST OF FL IN THE EASTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY....TO THE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS POSITIONS.

NEW 00Z/20 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
GETTING ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE
TROPICAL SYS VICINITY OF FL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE 06Z/20 GFS
BACKED OFF FOR NEXT SAT ON BEING S FAR N WITH IT. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND EVEN SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU
DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES.
WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR
WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY
INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN
CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR
WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF
ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE
CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES.

Attachments
08202011 18Z 5-7 Day Forecasts 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
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srainhoutx
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18Z...the trend has been to shift the tracks slowly W as time goes on...
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08202011 18Z 97L al972011.png
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If this ridge over us lifts out, is there a possibility this storm would head our way? What is the timing of the ridge moving out over us?
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srainhoutx
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sambucol wrote:If this ridge over us lifts out, is there a possibility this storm would head our way? What is the timing of the ridge moving out over us?
Everything will depend on if and when 97L develops and just how weak or strong it may become. What is noteworthy is the consistency of guidance in breaking down the ridge that has plagued us since late May. As of now, the best guess seems to be an Eastern Gulf issue, but as we know, things can change. Let's get a storm to actually form before we speculate any further regarding anything beyond the Central Gulf Coast and points E. For now, it is just something to be aware of and HGX has mentioned it almost daily as an item to monitor.
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