Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

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am19psu
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see...
I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit quicker than what the 12z GFS is spitting out. I'm thinking more like Thursday/Friday. I'm not sure why the GFS wants to keep redeveloping the center back east over a three day period. In any case, not much of a wind threat, I don't think, but should bring you guys some much needed rain.
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srainhoutx
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am19psu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see...
I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit quicker than what the 12z GFS is spitting out. I'm thinking more like Thursday/Friday. I'm not sure why the GFS wants to keep redeveloping the center back east over a three day period. In any case, not much of a wind threat, I don't think, but should bring you guys some much needed rain.
That makes sense, Adam. The 12Z Euro seems to agree as well...
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08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP072.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro suggests a TC along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast late this week...
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP120.gif
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I am liking the chances for some sort of widespread flow of moisture towards the end of the week. Will a system develop? I am not sure, especially with how long it has been taking other systems to form but the SST's out there are pretty high and it is in the middle of the season. Overall I am glad that a pattern change looks to be on the horizon.

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srainhoutx
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HPC Model Diagnostics Discussion through the 12Z Euro output:

...ENERGY OVER THE CNTRL/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF CONSENSUS

THE 12Z NAM IS A STG OUTLIER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LOW
CENTER OVER THE CNTRL AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURS COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS...12Z UKMET...AND 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL DOES
SHOW SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT EVEN THIS ATTM IS LIKELY OVERDONE. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
AND 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THE RELATIVELY WEAKER/FLATTER
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP WHICH SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROF THROUGH THIS
PD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.

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wxman57
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I sure hope it doesn't rain all through the Labor Day weekend. That would be terrible! (a little reverse weather psychology).
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wxman57 wrote:I sure hope it doesn't rain all through the Labor Day weekend. That would be terrible! (a little reverse weather psychology).

Now this is funny!!! :lol: I was just telling my family and friends how proud I was of myself being able to forecast Texas weather all by myself, Hot and Dry and repeat! :lol:
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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wxman57
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What the GFS and Euro are predicting reminds me a lot of Frances in 1998. I wouldn't bet on it verifying, but it is interesting. For those of you who don't remember, Frances wound up in the NW/N-Central Gulf for 3-4 days before finally moving inland near Corpus. But all the squalls were well north of the center. Corpus got nothing - no wind, no rain. We got dumped on, and the northern Gulf had 50-60 mph east winds for 3 days. My yard could use 21" of rain about now...

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srainhoutx
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Nice and long discussion from Brownsville WFO this afternoon...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AND NOW IT GETS
INTERESTING. THE BIG PICTURE STRONGLY SUPPORTS A CHANGE FROM THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER TO A
MORE HUMID...WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND THUS LOWER TEMPERATURES AS
THE CALENDAR TURNS TO OUR RAINIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR ON AVERAGE.

AS IRENE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXIT...THE "CANICULA" RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
WILL SPREAD TEMPORARILY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THEN THINGS GET DICEY. A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PORTION
REESTABLISHES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT BUT HOLDS.
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FESTERING WEAKNESS
TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. SUCH CLOSED LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 88 DEGREE WATER ARE
NOTHING BUT TROUBLE...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A NUMBER OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PAST. A LOT STILL HAS
TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF...12Z CANADIAN GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME KIND OF
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS AS TO
WHERE...WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND FINAL TRACK CANNOT BE RESOLVED NOW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY ANYONE WITH LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS ON THE TEXAS
COAST NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE WEATHER.


AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...INHERITED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
RAISED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON QUICKER MOVEMENT OF INITIAL BURST OF
MOISTURE...AND THIS IS SPOT ON WITH RAIN CHANCES REACHING 50/50
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER FARTHER INLAND. WITH THE CHANGE OF AIR
MASS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN
IN THE 90S EXCEPT LOWER 100S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. MCALLEN AND FALFURRIAS MIGHT SQUEEZE ONE MORE 100
DEGREE DAY TO CLOSE AUGUST...WHICH WOULD TIE THE 29 DAYS OF AUGUST
2009.

HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE NUMEROUS CATEGORY BASED
ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST VERTICAL MOTION...AND EITHER
MORNING DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF QUICKLY SENDING BOUNDARIES AND
WORKING ON UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE MID VALLEY TO PROVIDE GOOD
COVERAGE OUT TO AT LEAST THE HIDALGO/STARR COUNTY LINE. WITH THE
RAIN EXPECTED TO FEED OFF LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THEN LEAVE
CIRRUS (AT LEAST) IN ITS WAKE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO OR A SHADE
BELOW GUIDANCE...UPPER 90S FAR WEST AND LOWER 90S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL NOT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND 2 INCHES IN A HURRY ARE NEVER OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH THIS SETUP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. AS
MENTIONED THIS TIME SUNDAY...THE INITIAL FORCING WILL BE CHANNELED
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
LOUISIANA...LEAVING THE VALLEY IN A BIT OF A DEAD ZONE. THAT
SAID...MEAN RH REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 70 PERCENT AND WHILE MUCH IS
HELD ABOVE 700 MB THERE IS ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN LOW TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SO DESPITE THE CLOUDS EXPECT AT LEAST 40 PERCENT COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS INTERESTING IF YOU BELIEVE THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW DEEP LAYER /NORTHERLY/ FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. HUNCH IS MORE OF AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
ENOUGH SURFACE WARMING TO TRIGGER SOME RAIN...BUT MUCH MAY BE
LIGHT AFTER ANY INITIAL CONVECTION DRIPPING FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE THICKER CLOUDS EACH DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXIMA PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND AROUND 90 OR SO
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER 90S WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER OWING TO CLIMATOLOGY AND UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL
SITUATION...JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG OR
NEAR THE TEXAS OR NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...AND PUSHED RAIN INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. AS FOR
WINDS...HAD TO DO SOME SURGERY BASED ON THE TRENDS BUT DID NOT
BITE COMPLETELY ON THE 25+ KNOT SPEEDS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH ANY INCREASE IN
HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED
FOR DETAILS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
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Ptarmigan
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If something developed in the Gulf of Mexico, it probably would be a tropical storm. If named, it would be Lee.
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Joe B tweeted WGOM homebrew for Labor Day. The moisture is pooling over the W Caribbean and the pattern change will push this into the GOM. Lowering pressures advertised in model runs along with very warm SSTs could lead to tropical concerns. Time to pay attention to the GOM especially since we are headed into a holiday weekend.
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Will Texas be the Next Target for a Hurricane?
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... target.asp

Accuweather is suggesting something could brew in the tropics.
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srainhoutx
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The 00Z GFS, Euro and UKMET suggest a big slug of tropical moisture heading toward the LA and TX. While the models are slowing development until later in the weekend/Labor Day, they do suggest increase rain chances and develop a closed low. The GFS suggests a low off the S/SW LA Coast meandering W and S along the Middle/Upper TX Coast by Monday into Tuesday, while the Euro closes off a low S of SE TX heading S and W to near offshore of Corpus next Tuesday that eventually comes ashore near Brownsville/NE MX...
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08302011 00Z GFS f144.gif
08302011 00Z Euro f144.gif
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Well, for 2 days now GFS has picked up on 1, if not 2 areas that may develop. At one point there were 2 lows in the GOM at the same time. Looks like the models though are coming better into agreement of something forming, be it in GOM or from Carib influence. Image suggesting whatever develops could park offshore and hug the coast and indeed move slowly West...that would dump plenty of rain over a rather large area...this bears watching indeed.

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By paulinhouston at 2011-08-30
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srainhoutx
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Morning WFO discussions from Coastal Louisiana and Texas:

New Orleans:

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR BUT QUITE DIFFERENT AT THE SAME TIME
FOR LATE THIS WEEK FROM 24 HRS AGO. SIMILAR IN THE FACT THAT A WET
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GRADUALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT
MODELS NOW SHOW AN UPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF THE END OF THIS WEEK AND MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LA GULF
COAST. GFS BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER NORTH BEFORE TAKING IS
BACK SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOT PICKED UP BY NORTHERLY STREAM
TROUGH. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW.


Lake Charles:

A REX BLOCK LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
CHOSE TO GO WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN
NOT WINDING THIS SYSTEM UP AS QUICKLY.


Houston/Galveston:

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON
THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK
DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT
ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS.
SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO
TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST


Corpus Christi:

AFTER DAYS OF GOOD
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BEGINNING OF A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO INTERACTION OF AN UPR LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE...MODELS HAVE THROWN A MAJOR CURVEBALL TO FORECASTERS
IN THE FORM OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS
EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN ONLY 48 HRS OR SO
WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON
SAT IMAGERY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST
MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE MVG INTO SRN TEXAS/NE MEXICO WITH LOTS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU AND BEYOND. MODELS THAT SPIN UP A SYSTEM
KEEP IT MORE EAST OF THE AREA INITIALLY AND ACTUALLY DRAW MOISTURE
AWAY FROM S TX. EVEN THESE SOLNS EVENTUALLY PAINT A WETTER PICTURE
AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS W-SW DOWN THE TEXAS COAST.


Brownsville:

AFTER THE INITIAL
WAVE OF MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE LOWER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND THU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS A CHALLENGE. ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. ONE OF TWO
SCENARIOS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ONE OPTION IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHEAST IF IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AS A WEAK 5H TROUGH
SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TROUGH WILL STAY
TOO FAR NORTH AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE LOWER RGV BY WED OF NEXT WEEK.
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srainhoutx
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While we are waiting to see what will become of the modeled tropical disturbance for the Western Gulf, here is a read from the HPC of a somewhat similar scenario that wxman57 mentioned yesterday with Frances 1998...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html
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A Frances scenario would be great IMO for us here in Southeast, Texas. What we do NOT need is for this to rap up into a hurricane and get shoved down into Mexico with the ridge building back in which isn't out of the question. This could turn into a very crappy scenario for us. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS suggests more of a Louisiana issue...but until we start to see actual development, caution should be the theme, IMO...
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srainhoutx
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By Tuesday, the GFS suggests a closed circulation shifting WSW just S of Galveston as the Upper Ridge builds in from the W...
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srainhoutx
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By late Tuesday, the GFS suggests the closed low has shifted further down the Texas Coast S and E of Corpus as the ridge builds back in...
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08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_177_850_vort_ht.gif
08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_177_500_vort_ht.gif
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