July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Yep I've been noticing that also.Models are showing a broad area of low pressure developing in the eastern gulf off of the frontal boundary and heading in our general direction in a few days.Due to a cutoff low sitting over Baja. Non are showing tc genesis at the moment though,but something to keep an eye on.
Stratton20
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Don I agree it something to watch, Gulf temps are around 86-88 degrees, that is fuel for something to form, definitely something to monitor,12z Icon tries to spin up a depression and head it towards the Texas Border, definitely interesting
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and a couple thunderstorms already going at the coast
southwest of the TAF sites near Matagorda Bay. Expect them to
expand up the coast towards coastal sites later this morning, then
push inland on the seabreeze this afternoon. Not high enough
confidence for an explicit thunder mention at CLL, but have at
least VCTS for a time everywhere else at some point today.

Not expecting high IFR/MVFR CIGs overnight after thunderstorms
dissipate this evening with ridge building in for the weekend.
But, have FEW/SCT mentions in case.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

A summertime ridge is making its way into the region, as we are in
a transition from the rainy pattern of the past several days into
a hotter and drier setup this weekend. After the stretch we`ve had
lately, it would be no surprise to see people want to take
advantage of the fair weather to spend as much time as possible
outdoors enjoying the sun or do as much delayed outdoor work.
We certainly won`t argue against that urge, though we do want to
make sure that with a sharp increase in temps, folks are thinking
about heat safety. Heat advisories are possible - but even heat
that falls short of those thresholds in this area can be
dangerous if you push your body too hard. Take it easy, stay
hydrated, and keep heat stress out of the arrival of hot and fair
weather.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Coastal showers are beginning to form up again very early this
morning, and as of 4am stretch from below Matagorda Bay all the
way up to around San Luis Pass. This should continue to expand up
the coast through the early morning hours. These early showers
will be the initial phase of today`s pattern of showers and
storms that will spread inland through the day, mainly along the
seabreeze.

With ridging gradually building in from the east, I continue the
trend of trimming the highest PoPs closer to the expected location
of the seabreeze boundary, and trim things down even more tomorrow
to slight chance at most as the ridge really begins to take
control of the NW Gulf region. Similarly, I nudge high temps today
up into the lower 90s, and into the lower to middle 90s on
Friday.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

A deep strong ridge should be in place by the weekend, and with it
we will be looking for hot/dry weather across SE TX. As such, heat
safety will be the main concern as forecast high temperatures from
the mid to upper 90s lead to heat index values from 105 to 110 (or
higher) through the afternoon/early evening hours for both Sat and
Sun. Heat Advisories may be needed for this time frame. Be wary of
the potential for heat-related illnesses if outdoors for any exten-
ded periods and remember to stay hydrated.

Otherwise, 00Z long-range guidance currently hinting at the return
of POPs a bit earlier than previous runs. Global models seem to be
focusing on a poorly defined TUTT low approaching us from the east
(via the northern Gulf) with elevated PWs (2.1-2.3") reaching SETX
late Mon afternoon. Not entirely confident of this scenario playing
out this exact way at this time but it does look like the forecast
will be trending back to `wet` by next week. So for now, will keep
POPs in a generally diurnal pattern...kinda starting Mon but prob-
ably more like Tues on into Thurs. With the more tropical air mass
moving in and perhaps more clouds/rain, high temperatures could be
a bit cooler, but will continue to err on the side of warm (mainly
mid 90s inland...lower 90s at the coast).


.MARINE...

A few showers are beginning to redevelop very early this morning
at the Gulf coast. Light, mainly south to southwest winds will
persist through tonight. By tonight, southerly flow will tend to
dominate. The early showers are the beginning to one last pattern
of scattered showers and storms through the afternoon. While not
totally dry, some showers and storms may still be in the picture
Friday. Fair weather is expected this weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 75 95 75 96 / 20 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 76 95 76 96 / 60 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 93 / 60 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
Stratton20
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Might have to be on gulf watch in the next 6 days potentially, models continue to hint at an area of broad and weak low pressure forming in the gulf before slowly drifting our way by Tuesday or so, 12z ICON is by far the most “aggressive” as it develops a weak tropical depression and sends it our way, none of the other models are showing more than just an area of Low Pressure right now, definitely something to monitor however
Stratton20
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18z ICON continues to try to spin up an area of low pressure in the gulf around 5.5-6 days from now
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DoctorMu
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Welp. I was just about the mow the back. Thought I had about an hour before potential storms breezed through...when surprise - Rain!

The front lawn got a watering last night and should be very happy.
Attachments
rain.JUL22.jpg
TexasBreeze
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Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!
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jasons2k
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I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)
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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:01 pm Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!
One last hurrah! Until football season.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:33 pm I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)
It's finally going to work out. Good luck! We have an extended period of dry weather for the next 10 days+. After the weekend, there will be a slight chance of isolated showers every day.

This one's more like a Purgatory Ridge, instead of the Death Ridge
Stratton20
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DoctorMu I wouldnt say 10+ days, thats a bit of a stretch
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jasons2k
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The dig is underway and we may gunite in by Tuesday. I see rain chances next Wed. and Thu. have been raised a bit to 40%
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:45 pm DoctorMu I wouldnt say 10+ days, thats a bit of a stretch
Up here in College Station, we could go easily for the next month with only isolated showers...unless there's something tropical. When there's a sea breeze, it will be crushed by Navasota, even with a relatively weak ridge.

Back to more typical Texas summer weather. I enjoyed it while it lasted.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:56 am The dig is underway and we may gunite in by Tuesday. I see rain chances next Wed. and Thu. have been raised a bit to 40%
Just 20-30% here. Concrete hardens and cures pretty fast. It has an exothermic reaction anyway, but should like the sun. Hope they dig and lay down steel reinforcement quickly.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, rebar tomorrow, plumbing Monday and gunite Tuesday. Once it’s in, it has to be rinsed and hosed down twice a day for 10 days, so a little rain would actually be a good thing.
Stratton20
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Might have to watch that tropical disturbance near florida, majority of the GFS Ensembles bring this disturbance westward into the gulf of mexico due to a blocking high fo its north, granted the ensembles show just a open wave when it gets into the gulf, but we all know to never write off anything completely as history has shown us some pretty unexpected outcomes in the gulf, will be watching this closely
Scott747
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12z Euro has a mild signature with 90l that eventually comes w towards Nawlins before eventually washing out around Lake Charles.
Stratton20
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Scott747 Definitely something to watch as most ensemble members have this getting pushed into the Gulf, I think the current model runs might be under-doing 90L just a bit , because looking on satellite imagery 90L looks very healthy and it definitely looks like it’s organizing
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jasons2k
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It’s over 100 here now. Not just me but several stations on the Wundermap are also in the triple digits. It’s hot!!!
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, I see a 101 and 100°F near Spring. Even 98°F in The Woodlands. We're at 94°, but with a mid 70s DP, the heat index is nearing 110°F. The DP this morning was 79° - oppressive jungle-like. Still, I'll take last night's rain!

Don't think I want to finish mowing when I get home. Anyone have a spare goat?
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