August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[sambucol]

A question for everyone. Are you ready if we have a significant hurricane threat? I will never forget the Rita 2005 evacuation. I was not ready then but better prepared now. Laura was test last year waiting for that more NW turn.

That was a nightmare.

[Stratton20]

Worst Hurricane I went through was IKE, woke up to find most of our backyard fence in someone elses yard, even a trampoline was flung into our yard, sustained roof damage and no power for a while, that one sucked

[Katdaddy]

The Rita 2005 evacuation was a nightmare and slap in the face. 1983 Alicia I was starting 9th grade in Pearland. Fast forward to 2005…..I have a house, wife, and 1 year old daughter. The lessons learned from Rita were applied to IKE 2008.

[tireman4]

They were all bad.

[Rip76]

The Rita 2005 evacuation was a nightmare and slap in the face. 1983 Alicia I was starting 9th grade in Pearland. Fast forward to 2005…..I have a house, wife, and 1 year old daughter. The lessons learned from Rita were applied to IKE 2008.

The Rita nightmare I think, was brought on by Katrina for sure.
And super population growth in this area.
Alicia, I was in 5th grade. We didn’t think of leaving. But Texas City lost power for two weeks. We should’ve left.

[Scott747]

The earlier recon mission only made two passes. Was hoping for a third as Grace does appear to be strengthening, although slowly with the center still rather weak and pressures high. Good news is it looks like they had bumped up a mission scheduled for tomorrow and headed towards Grace now.

With the conformation of the center being at 17n there may not be too much of an adjustment with the 10pm package on the track despite the 18z runs.

Haven't seen any conformation that the upper level data from the earlier G-IV mission has been assimilated into the 0z runs but for now going to assume that they have.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 hopefully s doesn’t decide to rapidly intensify overnight, models aren’t showing that, but that is something that is in the back of my mind

[Kingwood36]

Newest

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 doesnt look like they made that significant of a change despite 18z model runs being a tab bit further south

[Cromagnum]

Can't make any kind of plans until at least Wednesday. Too many changes.

[Scott747]

No change on the 0z ICON and GFS. Ridging somehow even looks a little stronger.

[Stratton20]

That’s disappointing to hear, hoping the ICON and GFS are wrong about this ridging, I would rather get rain from this system than getting shafted and left hor and dry

[sambucol]

I read a comment at S2K about the18z Euro moving WNW into southern GOM, ending 100 miles north of the Yucatán, and the ensembles being very bullish. Also said for TX and LA to keep an eye out.

[Stratton20]

Sambucol I definitely think Tx and LA are in the cards still, Euro ensembles still favor Texas landfall

[captainbarbossa19]

Hey y'all! I am new here. I was invited on this board by Cpv17 from the website Storm2k. I live on the east side of Houston, so I felt like this board would be a good place to join a discussion more relevant to my area. Thanks again for the invite Cpv17!

[Scott747]

Recon is finding a mess of a system that still looks elongated with shifts at 17.3 and 16.3.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 I think the problem with Grace is its proximity to land, once we see it move away from the islands ( assuming it does) then it might have a better time developing a defined center

[Rip76]

Hey y'all! I am new here. I was invited on this board by Cpv17 from the website Storm2k. I live on the east side of Houston, so I felt like this board would be a good place to join a discussion more relevant to my area. Thanks again for the invite Cpv17!

Welcome Captain.
This is a good, informative board to belong to.
You’ll not only get Hurricane information, but local storm information, etc.
Enjoy.

[Scott747]

Euro shifts s and w towards Tampico.

[Scott747]

No real change overnight with Grace and model guidance. 6z models continue agreement with the southern and westerly solution. Current NHC track is landfall near La Pesca and that could be to far N unless a less likely scenario of a reformation or drastic change in the ridging.