August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[jasons2k]

Pretty bad storm down in the city. Mammatus clouds overhead…

[don]

As others mentioned earlier we'll have to watch the tropics again next week, as another wave moves into the western Caribbean and gulf.

[captainbarbossa19]

As others mentioned earlier we'll have to watch the tropics again next week, as another wave moves into the western Caribbean and gulf.

Right. I fear that this season is only just starting. Somehow, I think there will be at least one more potential threat for us. The next one might be a lot closer.

[Stratton20]

Don The GFS stalls the storm on that run, far out but definitely something to watch closely

[DavidH]

Srain, is the remnants of Fred gonna give y'all issues?

[Cromagnum]

As others mentioned earlier we'll have to watch the tropics again next week, as another wave moves into the western Caribbean and gulf.

Right. I fear that this season is only just starting. Somehow, I think there will be at least one more potential threat for us. The next one might be a lot closer.

Some years it does start late, and then is bad. We had several years with A storms in August.

[tireman4]

As others mentioned earlier we'll have to watch the tropics again next week, as another wave moves into the western Caribbean and gulf.

Right. I fear that this season is only just starting. Somehow, I think there will be at least one more potential threat for us. The next one might be a lot closer.

Some years it does start late, and then is bad. We had several years with A storms in August.

Hurricane Alicia

[Cromagnum]

Right. I fear that this season is only just starting. Somehow, I think there will be at least one more potential threat for us. The next one might be a lot closer.

Some years it does start late, and then is bad. We had several years with A storms in August.

Hurricane Alicia

Hurricane Andrew (not our local problem but probably best example of a really bad late start)

Hurricane Allen hit Texas pretty danged hard in 1980 too.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, is the remnants of Fred gonna give y'all issues?

Today is our day to get Fred's remnants across the Smoky Mountains. It has been very wet the past week and our local forecast calls for 6 to 10 inches of heavy rainfall the next 24 hours DavidH. Thanks for asking!

[DavidH]

Dang. Good luck!

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest from Jeff. Virtually no doubt at this point that Grace prefers margaritas over Shiner. Next.

Grace moving toward Jamacia.

Discussion:
USAF mission this morning had a difficult time finding the low level center of Grace as the system continues to struggle with its interaction with the Greater Antilles Islands. There appears to be a fairly robust mid level circulation with scattered deep convection that has been pulsing. The plane did find several areas of tropical storm force winds and due to that the system was upgraded back a tropical storm. Tropical storm conditions will be spreading across Jamacia and the Cayman Islands today and tonight.

Track:
Grace continues to move west at around 15mph and this motion will continue as a strong deep layer ridge over the SW ATL builds westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. On this track Grace will move across the NW Caribbean Sea today and Wednesday and into the northern portion of the Yucatan on Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. Grace will make a final landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico early Saturday well south of the south Texas coast. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the multi model consensus aides and much of the operational and ensemble guidance shows little spread in the track forecast yielding high confidence.

Intensity:
Grace is moving toward very warm sea surface temperatures…some of the warmest in the entire Atlantic basin along with increasingly favorable upper air conditions. If and when Grace can form a sustained inner core, intensification appears likely and Grace could approach the northern Yucatan as a strong tropical storm or hurricane. After crossing the Yucatan, Grace will have near ideal conditions in the Bay of Campeche for development with very warm sea surface temperatures and light winds aloft. Much of the intensity guidance brings Grace to a hurricane before landfall in eastern MX and this seems reasonable although the official forecast keeps Grace just below hurricane intensity as there is some question as to what condition the storm will be in after crossing the northern Yucatan.

Upper TX Coast Impacts:
Grace will not produce in direct impacts along the upper TX coast. However long period swells will increase late this week and peak over the weekend as the wind field associated with Grace moves across the southern Gulf of Mexico. WW3 shows long period swells building into the 6-9 foot range across our waters by early this weekend and this may result in some elevated tides along the beaches at times of high tide.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 171054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.AVIATION...

Some patchy fog will affect a few TAF sites early this morning
with visibility dropping to around 3 miles in fog but this will
burn off quickly after sunrise. Daytime heating will foster the
development of afternoon storms and will carry a vicinity at
central and coastal TAF sites today. Confidence is not terribly
high on coverage or placement. VFR conds expected tonight with
showers returning to coastal TAF sites after 09z as a surge of
moisture pushes into the region. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

An elongated trough of low pressure that extends from the western
Great lakes into eastern Texas coupled with a weak sea breeze,
differential heating and PW values near or above 2.00 inches will
all serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms today.
Winds aloft gently split this afternoon and one could make an
argument than SE TX will lie in a RRQ later today. So the ingredients
are in place but some of the better performing CAMs are not very
aggressive with precip coverage today and other than subtle warming
at 850 mb, can`t really find much different than yesterday. Will go
with high end chance PoPs and will take it from there. 850 mb temps
support high temperatures in the lower and middle 90`s.

Wednesday looks a bit better for rain chances if the CAMs are
correct. 850 temps cool a bit and PW values increase from 2.00-2.10
inches today to to 2.30 inches on Wednesday. The NAM and GFS show a
departing speed max on Wednesday and stronger PVA so that may also
be fueling the increased coverage as progged by the CAMs. Will go
with likely PoPs for Wednesday. Will also go a bit cooler for MaxT
values as 850 temps cool a little and clouds/precip limit heating.
Most of the precip should wane with the loss of heating Wednesday
night but it`ll be humid and dew points will remain elevated so
trended warmer for overnight lows. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

An upper level ridge will be building across the Gulf Coast
through the entirety of the long term period. Some low level
moisture will keep the threat of diurnally driven scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but expecting precipitation
chances to lessen through the weekend as that building high
pressure brings subsidence across SE Texas. This blocking high
pressure will help steer Tropical Storm Grace westward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, then on into the Bay of Campeche
Friday, and eventually across Mexico through the weekend. Our main
forecast concern through the long term will be the heat Saturday
through midweek next week. The increasing upper level heights
combined with mostly sunny conditions will lead to afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 90s starting Sunday - with
some spots approaching the triple digits by next week. If you plan
on going to the beach this weekend to try and cool off, please
use safe beach practices. While Grace will remain well to our
south, it will be churning the ocean across the western Gulf.
This will lead to increase rip current risks starting as early as
Thursday and remaining high through the weekend.

MARINE...

Tropical Storm Fred has brought some long period swells (9 to 12
seconds) of 2 to 4 feet this morning which will continue through
this afternoon. Onshore flow of 5 to 15 knots will continue
through Thursday with wave heights around 3 to 5 feet. However,
marine conditions start to become more hazardous Friday through
the weekend in response to Tropical Storm Grace moving through the
Bay of Campeche. Expecting wave heights to increase to 5 to 7
feet in the nearshore waters and to 7 to 9 feet in the offshore
waters Friday into Saturday afternoon with onshore flow between 15
and 20kts. This will also lead to high rip current risks along
Gulf facing beaches through the weekend. Conditions are expected
to improve next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 92 77 94 / 40 30 60 10 40
Houston (IAH) 95 78 93 78 95 / 50 40 70 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 83 92 / 30 50 70 40 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

Yawn this weather is boring, we need some action along the Texas coast, not a fan of boring weather! High Pressure= Lame! Hope we get some storms to fire up in the afternoon

[Cpv17]

It kind of looks like the next system that may threaten us in 10 days or so is a CAG.. correct me if I’m wrong though but I just looked at the 06z GFS and that’s what it looked like to me. Weird if it’s true cuz that would be more like something you’d see in June.

[vci_guy2003]

What is CAG?

[Stratton20]

CPV17 thats kinda what it looks like to me as well and vci_guy2003 CAG stands for Central American Gyre, it’s basically a very large area of low pressure over central america/yucatan that every now and then can produce disturbances over the caribbean or gulf that can turn into tropical systems

[Cpv17]

Not only does it have support on the GFS op but the GEFS is supportive of it as well. At least on the 06z run.

[Texaspirate11]

YUP as our NWS said: Mexico bound with margaritas - bueno.

[Scott747]

It kind of looks like the next system that may threaten us in 10 days or so is a CAG.. correct me if I’m wrong though but I just looked at the 06z GFS and that’s what it looked like to me. Weird if it’s true cuz that would be more like something you’d see in June.

It comes from the wave that's roughly around 40w right now. Takes a similar track as Grace. GFS brings it on a high line through the Greater Antilles and when it was easier to identify the vorticity on the 12z euro yesterday it came through the Caribbean as a 'cruiser' without any development.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS is still sniffing out some more potential gulf mischief around 9-10 days from now